A 3-year interval is too short for re-screening women testing negative for human papillomavirus: a population-based cohort study

Objective: To compare the results from an initial negative human papillomavirus (HPV) test with re-screening after 3 years in women attending two HPV-based screening programmes. Design: Population-based cohort study. Setting: Two cervical service screening programmes in Italy. Population: Women aged 25–64 years invited to screening from April 2009 to October 2015. Methods: Eligible women were invited to undergo an HPV test. Those with a negative HPV test went on to the next screening round 3 years later. Cytology triage was performed for HPV+ (HPV by Hybrid Capture 2) samples, with immediate colposcopy (if abnormal) and HPV re-testing 1 year later (if negative). Main outcome measures: Participation rate, positivity at HPV and at triage, referral rate to colposcopy, positive predictive value for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ (CIN2+) at colposcopy, and detection rate for CIN2+. Results: We present the results from 48 751 women at the first screening and 22 000 women at re-screening 3 years later. The response rate was slightly higher at the second screening (74.5 versus 72.1% at the first screening; referral rate, RR 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 95% CI, 1.07–1.14). Compared with the first screening, we observed a significant reduction at the second screening in terms of HPV positivity (RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.51–0.60), referral rate to colposcopy (RR 0.47, 95% CI 0.41–0.53), CIN2+ detection rate (RR 0.24, 95% CI 0.13–0.39), and positive predictive value (PPV) for CIN2+ at colposcopy (RR 0.51, 95% CI 0.29–0.87). Conclusions: The very low frequency of disease and inadequate PPV at colposcopy indicate that a 3-year interval after a negative HPV test is too short. Tweetable abstract: Three years after a negative HPV the frequency of cervical disease is so low that re-screening is inefficient.