TY - JOUR
T1 - A clinical prediction model for estimating the risk of developing uveitis in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis
AU - Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation (PRINTO)
AU - Van Straalen, Joeri W.
AU - Giancane, Gabriella
AU - Amazrhar, Yasmine
AU - Tzaribachev, Nikolay
AU - Lazar, Calin
AU - Uziel, Yosef
AU - Telcharova-Mihaylovska, Albena
AU - Len, Claudio A.
AU - Miniaci, Angela
AU - Boteanu, Alina L.
AU - Filocamo, Giovanni
AU - Mastri, Mariel V.
AU - Arkachaisri, Thaschawee
AU - Magnolia, Maria G.
AU - Hoppenreijs, Esther
AU - De Roock, Sytze
AU - Wulffraat, Nico M.
AU - Ruperto, Nicolino
AU - Swart, Joost F.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.
PY - 2021/6/1
Y1 - 2021/6/1
N2 - Objective: To build a prediction model for uveitis in children with JIA for use in current clinical practice. Methods: Data from the international observational Pharmachild registry were used. Adjusted risk factors as well as predictors for JIA-associated uveitis (JIA-U) were determined using multivariable logistic regression models. The prediction model was selected based on the Akaike information criterion. Bootstrap resampling was used to adjust the final prediction model for optimism. Results: JIA-U occurred in 1102 of 5529 JIA patients (19.9%). The majority of patients that developed JIA-U were female (74.1%), ANA positive (66.0%) and had oligoarthritis (59.9%). JIA-U was rarely seen in patients with systemic arthritis (0.5%) and RF positive polyarthritis (0.2%). Independent risk factors for JIA-U were ANA positivity [odds ratio (OR): 1.88 (95% CI: 1.54, 2.30)] and HLA-B27 positivity [OR: 1.48 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.95)] while older age at JIA onset was an independent protective factor [OR: 0.84 (9%% CI: 0.81, 0.87)]. On multivariable analysis, the combination of age at JIA onset [OR: 0.84 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.86)], JIA category and ANA positivity [OR: 2.02 (95% CI: 1.73, 2.36)] had the highest discriminative power among the prediction models considered (optimism-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.75). Conclusion: We developed an easy to read model for individual patients with JIA to inform patients/parents on the probability of developing uveitis.
AB - Objective: To build a prediction model for uveitis in children with JIA for use in current clinical practice. Methods: Data from the international observational Pharmachild registry were used. Adjusted risk factors as well as predictors for JIA-associated uveitis (JIA-U) were determined using multivariable logistic regression models. The prediction model was selected based on the Akaike information criterion. Bootstrap resampling was used to adjust the final prediction model for optimism. Results: JIA-U occurred in 1102 of 5529 JIA patients (19.9%). The majority of patients that developed JIA-U were female (74.1%), ANA positive (66.0%) and had oligoarthritis (59.9%). JIA-U was rarely seen in patients with systemic arthritis (0.5%) and RF positive polyarthritis (0.2%). Independent risk factors for JIA-U were ANA positivity [odds ratio (OR): 1.88 (95% CI: 1.54, 2.30)] and HLA-B27 positivity [OR: 1.48 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.95)] while older age at JIA onset was an independent protective factor [OR: 0.84 (9%% CI: 0.81, 0.87)]. On multivariable analysis, the combination of age at JIA onset [OR: 0.84 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.86)], JIA category and ANA positivity [OR: 2.02 (95% CI: 1.73, 2.36)] had the highest discriminative power among the prediction models considered (optimism-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.75). Conclusion: We developed an easy to read model for individual patients with JIA to inform patients/parents on the probability of developing uveitis.
KW - confounders
KW - JIA
KW - prediction model
KW - risk factors
KW - uveitis
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U2 - 10.1093/rheumatology/keaa733
DO - 10.1093/rheumatology/keaa733
M3 - Article
C2 - 33274366
AN - SCOPUS:85108741997
VL - 60
SP - 2896
EP - 2905
JO - Rheumatology
JF - Rheumatology
SN - 1462-0324
IS - 6
ER -