A dynamic prognostic model to predict survival in post-polycythemia vera myelofibrosis

Francesco Passamonti, Elisa Rumi, Marianna Caramella, Chiara Elena, Luca Arcaini, Emanuela Boveri, Cecilia Del Curto, Daniela Pietra, Laura Vanelli, Paolo Bernasconi, Cristiana Pascutto, Mario Cazzola, Enrica Morra, Mario Lazzarino

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Post-polycythemia vera myelofibrosis (post-PV MF) is a late evolution of PV. In 647 patients with PV, we found that leukocytosis leukocyte count > (15 × 10 9/L) at diagnosis is a risk factor for the evolution of post-PV MR In a series of 68 patients who developed post-PV MF, median survival was 5.7 years. Hemoglobin level less than 100 g/L (10g/dL) at diagnosis of post-PV MF was an independent risk factor for survival. The course of post-PV MF, how-ever, is a dynamic process that implies a progressive worsening of clinical parameters. Using a multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression with time-dependent covariates, we found that a dynamic score based on hemoglobin level less than 100 g/L (10g/dL), platelet count less than 100 × 10 9/L, and leukocyte count more than 30 × 10 9/L is useful to predict survival at any time from diagnosis of post-PV MF. The resulting hazard ratio of the score was 4.2 (95% CI: 2.4-7.7; P<.001), meaning a 4.2- fold worsening of survival for each risk factor acquired during follow up. In conclusion, leukocytosis at diagnosis of PV is a risk factor for evolution in post-PV MF. A dynamic score based on hemoglobin level, and platelet and leukocyte count predicts survival at any time from diagnosis of post-PV MF.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3383-3387
Number of pages5
JournalBlood
Volume111
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 1 2008

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Hematology
  • Biochemistry
  • Cell Biology
  • Immunology

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'A dynamic prognostic model to predict survival in post-polycythemia vera myelofibrosis'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this