A New Robust Epigenetic Model for Forensic Age Prediction

Alberto Montesanto, Patrizia D’Aquila, Vincenzo Lagani, Ersilia Paparazzo, Silvana Geracitano, Laura Formentini, Robertina Giacconi, Maurizio Cardelli, Mauro Provinciali, Dina Bellizzi, Giuseppe Passarino

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Forensic DNA phenotyping refers to an emerging field of forensic sciences aimed at the prediction of externally visible characteristics of unknown sample donors directly from biological materials. The aging process significantly affects most of the above characteristics making the development of a reliable method of age prediction very important. Today, the so-called “epigenetic clocks” represent the most accurate models for age prediction. Since they are technically not achievable in a typical forensic laboratory, forensic DNA technology has triggered efforts toward the simplification of these models. The present study aimed to build an epigenetic clock using a set of methylation markers of five different genes in a sample of the Italian population of different ages covering the whole span of adult life. In a sample of 330 subjects, 42 selected markers were analyzed with a machine learning approach for building a prediction model for age prediction. A ridge linear regression model including eight of the proposed markers was identified as the best performing model across a plethora of candidates. This model was tested on an independent sample of 83 subjects providing a median error of 4.5 years. In the present study, an epigenetic model for age prediction was validated in a sample of the Italian population. However, its applicability to advanced ages still represents the main limitation in forensic caseworks.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1424-1431
Number of pages8
JournalJournal of Forensic Sciences
Volume65
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 1 2020

Keywords

  • age prediction
  • automated machine learning
  • ELOVL2
  • epigenetic clock
  • externally visible characteristics
  • FDP
  • methylation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Pathology and Forensic Medicine
  • Genetics

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