Objective: To derive and validate a prediction rule in patients with acute chest pain (CP) without existing known coronary disease. Methods: Cohort study including 2233 patients with CP. Based on clinical judgment, 1435 were discharged as very low risk and the remaining 798 underwent exercise tolerance test (ETT). End point: 6-month composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and revascularization. The prediction rule was derived from a randomly selected test cohort (n = 1106) summing factors of variables selected by multivariate regression analysis: CP score higher than 6 (factor of 3), male gender, age older than 50 years, metabolic syndrome, and diabetes mellitus (factor of 1, for each). The prediction rule was validated in the remaining cohort (n = 1127). All patients with CP were categorized into 3 groups: group A (prediction rule 0-1), B (2-4), or C (5-6). Outcomes and prognostic yield of ETT were compared among each group. Results: In the test cohort, 55 patients (5%) reached the composite end point. Event rate increased as the prediction rule increased: 1% for group A, 6% for B, and 25% for C (P <.001). This pattern was confirmed in the validation cohort (P <.001). A normal ETT did not significantly improve the high (99%) negative predictive value in group A and did not succeed in excluding the composite end point (17%) in group C. Conclusions: In patients with acute CP without existing coronary disease, a prediction rule based on clinical characteristics provided a useful method for prognostication with possible implication in decision making.
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Emergency Medicine