A Novel Nomogram to Predict the Prognosis of Patients Undergoing Liver Resection for Neuroendocrine Liver Metastasis: an Analysis of the Italian Neuroendocrine Liver Metastasis Database

A Ruzzenente, F Bagante, F Bertuzzo, L Aldrighetti, Giorgio Ercolani, F Giuliante, Alessandro Ferrero, G Torzilli, GL Grazi, Francesca Ratti, Alessandro Cucchetti, AM de Rose, N Russolillo, M Cimino, P Perri, Ivana Cataldo, Aldo Scarpa, Alfredo Guglielmi, Calogero Iacono

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Even though surgery remains the only potentially curative option for patients with neuroendocrine liver metastases, the factors determining a patient’s prognosis following hepatectomy are poorly understood. Using a multicentric database including patients who underwent hepatectomy for NELMs at seven tertiary referral hepato-biliary-pancreatic centers between January 1990 and December 2014, we sought to identify the predictors of survival and develop a clinical tool to predict patient’s prognosis after liver resection for NELMs. The median age of the 238 patients included in the study was 61.9 years (interquartile range 51.5–70.1) and 55.9 % (n = 133) of patients were men. The number of NELMs (hazard ratio = 1.05), tumor size (HR = 1.01), and Ki-67 index (HR = 1.07) were the predictors of overall survival. These variables were used to develop a nomogram able to predict survival. According to the predicted 5-year OS, patients were divided into three different risk classes: 19.3, 55.5, and 25.2 % of patients were in low (>80 % predicted 5-year OS), medium (40–80 % predicted 5-year OS), and high (70 %) staged and predicted the prognosis of patients undergoing liver resection for NELMs. © 2016 The Society for Surgery of the Alimentary Tract
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)41-48
Number of pages8
JournalJournal of Gastrointestinal Surgery
Volume21
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017

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