Accurate prediction of progression to muscle-invasive disease in patients with pT1G3 bladder cancer: A clinical decision-making tool

D D'Andrea, M Abufaraj, M Susani, R Ristl, B Foerster, S Kimura, A Mari, Francesco Soria, A Briganti, PI Karakiewicz, KM Gust, M Rouprêt, SF Shariat

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Purpose: To improve current prognostic models for the selection of patients with T1G3 urothelial bladder cancer who are more likely to fail intravesical therapy and progress to muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC). Materials and Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 1,289 patients with pT1G3 urothelial bladder cancer who were treated with transurethral resection of the bladder (TURB) and adjuvant intravesical bacillus-Calmette-Guérin (BCG). Random-split sample data and competing-risk regression were used to identify the independent impact of lymphovascular invasion (LVI) and variant histology (VH) on progression to MIBC. We developed a nomogram for predicting patient-specific probability of disease progression at 2 and 5 years after TURB. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the clinical benefit associated with the use of our nomogram. Results: In the development cohort, within a median follow-up of 51.6 months (IQR: 19.3–92.5), disease progression occurred in 89 patients (13.8%). A total of 84 (13%) patients were found to have VH and 57 (8.8%) with LVI at TURB. Both factors were independently associated with disease progression on multivariable competing-risk analysis (HR: 4.4; 95% CI: 2.8–6.9; P <0.001 and HR: 3.5; 95% CI: 2.1–5.8; P <0.001, respectively). DCA showed superior net benefits for the nomogram within a threshold probability of progression between 5% and 55%. Limitations are inherent to the retrospective design. Conclusions: We demonstrated the clinical value of the integration of LVI and VH in a prognostic model for the prediction of MIBC. Indeed, our tool provides superior individualized risk estimation of progression facilitating decision-making regarding early RC. © 2018 Elsevier Inc.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)239.e1-239.e7
Number of pages7
JournalUrologic Oncology: Seminars and Original Investigations
Volume36
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018

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