An epidemiologic risk prediction model for ovarian cancer in Europe

The EPIC study

K. Li, A. Hüsing, R. T. Fortner, A. Tjønneland, L. Hansen, L. Dossus, J. Chang-Claude, M. Bergmann, A. Steffen, C. Bamia, D. Trichopoulos, A. Trichopoulou, D. Palli, A. Mattiello, C. Agnoli, R. Tumino, N. C. Onland-Moret, P. H. Peeters, H. B. Bueno-de-Mesquita, I. T. Gram & 16 others E. Weiderpass, E. Sánchez-Cantalejo, M. D. Chirlaque, E. J. Duell, E. Ardanaz, A. Idahl, E. Lundin, K. T. Khaw, R. C. Travis, M. A. Merritt, M. J. Gunter, E. Riboli, P. Ferrari, K. Terry, D. Cramer, R. Kaaks

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

20 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Ovarian cancer has a high case-fatality ratio, largely due to late diagnosis. Epidemiologic risk prediction models could help identify women at increased risk who may benefit from targeted prevention measures, such as screening or chemopreventive agents. Methods: We built an ovarian cancer risk prediction model with epidemiologic risk factors from 202 206 women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Results: Older age at menopause, longer duration of hormone replacement therapy, and higher body mass index were included as increasing ovarian cancer risk, whereas unilateral ovariectomy, longer duration of oral contraceptive use, and higher number of full-term pregnancies were decreasing risk. The discriminatory power (overall concordance index) of this model, as examined with five-fold cross-validation, was 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57, 0.70). The ratio of the expected to observed number of ovarian cancer cases occurring in the first 5 years of follow-up was 0.90 (293 out of 324, 95% CI: 0.81-1.01), in general there was no evidence for miscalibration. Conclusion: Our ovarian cancer risk model containing only epidemiological data showed modest discriminatory power for a Western European population. Future studies should consider adding informative biomarkers to possibly improve the predictive ability of the model.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1257-1265
Number of pages9
JournalBritish Journal of Cancer
Volume112
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 31 2015

Fingerprint

Ovarian Neoplasms
Epidemiologic Factors
Confidence Intervals
Delayed Diagnosis
Hormone Replacement Therapy
Ovariectomy
Oral Contraceptives
Menopause
Body Mass Index
Biomarkers
Pregnancy
Population
Neoplasms

Keywords

  • Ovarian cancer
  • Reproductive risk factors
  • Risk model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cancer Research
  • Oncology

Cite this

Li, K., Hüsing, A., Fortner, R. T., Tjønneland, A., Hansen, L., Dossus, L., ... Kaaks, R. (2015). An epidemiologic risk prediction model for ovarian cancer in Europe: The EPIC study. British Journal of Cancer, 112(7), 1257-1265. https://doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2015.22

An epidemiologic risk prediction model for ovarian cancer in Europe : The EPIC study. / Li, K.; Hüsing, A.; Fortner, R. T.; Tjønneland, A.; Hansen, L.; Dossus, L.; Chang-Claude, J.; Bergmann, M.; Steffen, A.; Bamia, C.; Trichopoulos, D.; Trichopoulou, A.; Palli, D.; Mattiello, A.; Agnoli, C.; Tumino, R.; Onland-Moret, N. C.; Peeters, P. H.; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. B.; Gram, I. T.; Weiderpass, E.; Sánchez-Cantalejo, E.; Chirlaque, M. D.; Duell, E. J.; Ardanaz, E.; Idahl, A.; Lundin, E.; Khaw, K. T.; Travis, R. C.; Merritt, M. A.; Gunter, M. J.; Riboli, E.; Ferrari, P.; Terry, K.; Cramer, D.; Kaaks, R.

In: British Journal of Cancer, Vol. 112, No. 7, 31.03.2015, p. 1257-1265.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Li, K, Hüsing, A, Fortner, RT, Tjønneland, A, Hansen, L, Dossus, L, Chang-Claude, J, Bergmann, M, Steffen, A, Bamia, C, Trichopoulos, D, Trichopoulou, A, Palli, D, Mattiello, A, Agnoli, C, Tumino, R, Onland-Moret, NC, Peeters, PH, Bueno-de-Mesquita, HB, Gram, IT, Weiderpass, E, Sánchez-Cantalejo, E, Chirlaque, MD, Duell, EJ, Ardanaz, E, Idahl, A, Lundin, E, Khaw, KT, Travis, RC, Merritt, MA, Gunter, MJ, Riboli, E, Ferrari, P, Terry, K, Cramer, D & Kaaks, R 2015, 'An epidemiologic risk prediction model for ovarian cancer in Europe: The EPIC study', British Journal of Cancer, vol. 112, no. 7, pp. 1257-1265. https://doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2015.22
Li K, Hüsing A, Fortner RT, Tjønneland A, Hansen L, Dossus L et al. An epidemiologic risk prediction model for ovarian cancer in Europe: The EPIC study. British Journal of Cancer. 2015 Mar 31;112(7):1257-1265. https://doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2015.22
Li, K. ; Hüsing, A. ; Fortner, R. T. ; Tjønneland, A. ; Hansen, L. ; Dossus, L. ; Chang-Claude, J. ; Bergmann, M. ; Steffen, A. ; Bamia, C. ; Trichopoulos, D. ; Trichopoulou, A. ; Palli, D. ; Mattiello, A. ; Agnoli, C. ; Tumino, R. ; Onland-Moret, N. C. ; Peeters, P. H. ; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. B. ; Gram, I. T. ; Weiderpass, E. ; Sánchez-Cantalejo, E. ; Chirlaque, M. D. ; Duell, E. J. ; Ardanaz, E. ; Idahl, A. ; Lundin, E. ; Khaw, K. T. ; Travis, R. C. ; Merritt, M. A. ; Gunter, M. J. ; Riboli, E. ; Ferrari, P. ; Terry, K. ; Cramer, D. ; Kaaks, R. / An epidemiologic risk prediction model for ovarian cancer in Europe : The EPIC study. In: British Journal of Cancer. 2015 ; Vol. 112, No. 7. pp. 1257-1265.
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abstract = "Background: Ovarian cancer has a high case-fatality ratio, largely due to late diagnosis. Epidemiologic risk prediction models could help identify women at increased risk who may benefit from targeted prevention measures, such as screening or chemopreventive agents. Methods: We built an ovarian cancer risk prediction model with epidemiologic risk factors from 202 206 women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Results: Older age at menopause, longer duration of hormone replacement therapy, and higher body mass index were included as increasing ovarian cancer risk, whereas unilateral ovariectomy, longer duration of oral contraceptive use, and higher number of full-term pregnancies were decreasing risk. The discriminatory power (overall concordance index) of this model, as examined with five-fold cross-validation, was 0.64 (95{\%} confidence interval (CI): 0.57, 0.70). The ratio of the expected to observed number of ovarian cancer cases occurring in the first 5 years of follow-up was 0.90 (293 out of 324, 95{\%} CI: 0.81-1.01), in general there was no evidence for miscalibration. Conclusion: Our ovarian cancer risk model containing only epidemiological data showed modest discriminatory power for a Western European population. Future studies should consider adding informative biomarkers to possibly improve the predictive ability of the model.",
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T1 - An epidemiologic risk prediction model for ovarian cancer in Europe

T2 - The EPIC study

AU - Li, K.

AU - Hüsing, A.

AU - Fortner, R. T.

AU - Tjønneland, A.

AU - Hansen, L.

AU - Dossus, L.

AU - Chang-Claude, J.

AU - Bergmann, M.

AU - Steffen, A.

AU - Bamia, C.

AU - Trichopoulos, D.

AU - Trichopoulou, A.

AU - Palli, D.

AU - Mattiello, A.

AU - Agnoli, C.

AU - Tumino, R.

AU - Onland-Moret, N. C.

AU - Peeters, P. H.

AU - Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. B.

AU - Gram, I. T.

AU - Weiderpass, E.

AU - Sánchez-Cantalejo, E.

AU - Chirlaque, M. D.

AU - Duell, E. J.

AU - Ardanaz, E.

AU - Idahl, A.

AU - Lundin, E.

AU - Khaw, K. T.

AU - Travis, R. C.

AU - Merritt, M. A.

AU - Gunter, M. J.

AU - Riboli, E.

AU - Ferrari, P.

AU - Terry, K.

AU - Cramer, D.

AU - Kaaks, R.

PY - 2015/3/31

Y1 - 2015/3/31

N2 - Background: Ovarian cancer has a high case-fatality ratio, largely due to late diagnosis. Epidemiologic risk prediction models could help identify women at increased risk who may benefit from targeted prevention measures, such as screening or chemopreventive agents. Methods: We built an ovarian cancer risk prediction model with epidemiologic risk factors from 202 206 women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Results: Older age at menopause, longer duration of hormone replacement therapy, and higher body mass index were included as increasing ovarian cancer risk, whereas unilateral ovariectomy, longer duration of oral contraceptive use, and higher number of full-term pregnancies were decreasing risk. The discriminatory power (overall concordance index) of this model, as examined with five-fold cross-validation, was 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57, 0.70). The ratio of the expected to observed number of ovarian cancer cases occurring in the first 5 years of follow-up was 0.90 (293 out of 324, 95% CI: 0.81-1.01), in general there was no evidence for miscalibration. Conclusion: Our ovarian cancer risk model containing only epidemiological data showed modest discriminatory power for a Western European population. Future studies should consider adding informative biomarkers to possibly improve the predictive ability of the model.

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KW - Reproductive risk factors

KW - Risk model

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