Analysis of loss to follow-up in 4099 multidrug-resistant pulmonary tuberculosis patients

Ian F Walker, Oumin Shi, Joseph P Hicks, Helen Elsey, Xiaolin Wei, Dick Menzies, Zhiyi Lan, Dennis Falzon, Giovanni Battista Migliori, Carlos Pérez-Guzmán, Mario H Vargas, Lourdes García-García, José Sifuentes Osornio, Alfredo Ponce-De-León, Martie van der Walt, James N Newell

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Loss to follow-up (LFU) of ≥2 consecutive months contributes to the poor levels of treatment success in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) reported by TB programmes. We explored the timing of when LFU occurs by month of MDR-TB treatment and identified patient-level risk factors associated with LFU.We analysed a dataset of individual MDR-TB patient data (4099 patients from 22 countries). We used Kaplan-Meier survival curves to plot time to LFU and a Cox proportional hazards model to explore the association of potential risk factors with LFU.Around one-sixth (n=702) of patients were recorded as LFU. Median (interquartile range) time to LFU was 7 (3-11) months. The majority of LFU occurred in the initial phase of treatment (75% in the first 11 months). Major risk factors associated with LFU were: age 36-50 years (HR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.6; p=0.04) compared with age 0-25 years, being HIV positive (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.7; p<0.01) compared with HIV negative, on an individualised treatment regimen (HR 0.7, 95% CI 0.6-1.0; p=0.03) compared with a standardised regimen and a recorded serious adverse event (HR 0.5, 95% CI 0.4-0.6; p<0.01) compared with no serious adverse event.Both patient- and regimen-related factors were associated with LFU, which may guide interventions to improve treatment adherence, particularly in the first 11 months.

Original languageEnglish
Article number1800353
JournalEuropean Respiratory Journal
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2019


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