At the peak of COVID-19 age and disease severity but not comorbidities are predictors of mortality: COVID-19 burden in Bergamo, Italy

HPG23 COVID-19 Study Group

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Findings from February 2020, indicate that the clinical spectrum of COVID-19 can be heterogeneous, probably due to the infectious dose and viral load of SARS-CoV-2 within the first weeks of the outbreak. The aim of this study was to investigate predictors of overall 28-day mortality at the peak of the Italian outbreak.

METHODS: Retrospective observational study of all COVID-19 patients admitted to the main hospital of Bergamo, from February 23 to March 14, 2020.

RESULTS: Five hundred and eight patients were hospitalized, predominantly male (72.4%), mean age of 66±15 years; 49.2% were older than 70 years. Most of patients presented with severe respiratory failure (median value [IQR] of PaO<inf>2</inf>/FiO<inf>2</inf>: 233 [149-281]). Mortality rate at 28 days resulted of 33.7% (N.=171). Thirty-nine percent of patients were treated with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), 9.5% with noninvasive ventilation (NIV) and 13.6% with endotracheal intubation. 9.5% were admitted to Semi-Intensive Respiratory Care Unit, and 18.9% to Intensive Care Unit. Risk factors independently associated with 28-day mortality were advanced age (≥78 years: odds ratio [OR], 95% confidence interval [CI]: 38.91 [10.67-141.93], P<0.001; 70-77 years: 17.30 [5.40-55.38], P<0.001; 60-69 years: 3.20 [1.00-10.20], P=0.049), PaO<inf>2</inf>/FiO<inf>2</inf><200 at presentation (3.50 [1.70-7.20], P=0.001), need for CPAP/NIV in the first 24 hours (8.38 [3.63-19.35], P<0.001), and blood urea value at admission (1.01 [1.00-1.02], P=0.015).

CONCLUSIONS: At the peak of the outbreak, with a probable high infectious dose and viral load, older age, the severity of respiratory failure and renal impairment at presentation, but not comorbidities, are predictors of 28-day mortality in COVID-19.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)51-61
Number of pages11
JournalPanminerva Medica
Volume63
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2021

Keywords

  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • COVID-19/complications
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Italy/epidemiology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Retrospective Studies
  • SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification
  • Severity of Illness Index

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