Basic mathematical models for the temporal dynamics of HAV in medium-endemicity Italian areas

Marco Ajelli, Mimmo Iannelli, Piero Manfredi, Marta L. Ciofi degli Atti

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

In some Southern Italy areas Hepatitis A still represents a serious public health issue. In 1996 a big epidemics in Puglia led that region to adopt a mass vaccination programme. In this paper a basic mathematical model for the temporal trends of Hepatitis A Virus (HAV) in Southern Italy is proposed and investigated. The model includes the main distinctive features of HAV in Southern Italy, i.e. multiplicity of exposure factors, and periodic forcing caused by yearly patterns of seafood consumption. The analysis illustrates the role played by the risk factors on equilibria, stability, and the period of HAV oscillations, both natural and in presence of vaccination. The model also fits well temporal trends of HAV in Southern Italy, suggesting that it is a good starting point for more structured modelling.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1697-1707
Number of pages11
JournalVaccine
Volume26
Issue number13
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 20 2008

Keywords

  • Direct and indirect transmission
  • HAV oscillations
  • Hepatitis A in Southern Italy
  • Mathematical models

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Immunology
  • Microbiology
  • Virology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • veterinary(all)

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