Boosting medical diagnostics by pooling independent judgments

Ralf H J M Kurvers, Stefan M. Herzog, Ralph Hertwig, Jens Krause, Patricia A. Carney, Andy Bogart, Giuseppe Argenziano, Iris Zalaudek, Max Wolf

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Collective intelligence refers to the ability of groups to outperform individual decision makers when solving complex cognitive problems. Despite its potential to revolutionize decisionmaking in a wide range of domains, including medical, economic, and political decision making, at present, little is known about the conditions underlying collective intelligence in real-world contexts. We here focus on two key areas of medical diagnostics, breast and skin cancer detection. Using a simulation study that draws on large real-world datasets, involvingmore than 140 doctors makingmore than 20,000 diagnoses, we investigate when combining the independent judgments of multiple doctors outperforms the best doctor in a group. We find that similarity in diagnostic accuracy is a key condition for collective intelligence: Aggregating the independent judgments of doctors outperforms the best doctor in a group whenever the diagnostic accuracy of doctors is relatively similar, but not when doctors' diagnostic accuracy differs too much. This intriguingly simple result is highly robust and holds across different group sizes, performance levels of the best doctor, and collective intelligence rules. The enabling role of similarity, in turn, is explained by its systematic effects on the number of correct and incorrect decisions of the best doctor that are overruled by the collective. By identifying a key factor underlying collective intelligence in two important real-world contexts, our findings pave the way for innovative and more effective approaches to complex real-world decision making, and to the scientific analyses of those approaches.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)8777-8782
Number of pages6
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume113
Issue number31
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2 2016

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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    Kurvers, R. H. J. M., Herzog, S. M., Hertwig, R., Krause, J., Carney, P. A., Bogart, A., Argenziano, G., Zalaudek, I., & Wolf, M. (2016). Boosting medical diagnostics by pooling independent judgments. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113(31), 8777-8782. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1601827113