Abstract
Aims: To update cancer mortality statistics in Italy, analyzing 1980-2010 trends, and to predict 2015 mortality rates. Methods: World Health Organization cancer mortality and census data were extracted to calculate death rates for 30 cancer sites from 1980 to 2010. Trends were analyzed with joinpoint regression and predicted 2015 deaths rates were computed. Results: In 2010 in Italy, there were 175,046 cancer deaths (98,847 men and 76,199 women), with total mortality rates, respectively, of 138.22 and 82.6/100,000. The leading cause of cancer death in men was lung cancer (25,457 deaths, 36.2/100,000), whereas in women it was breast cancer (12,115 deaths, 15.38/100,000). Total cancer mortality in men has been decreasing since the late 1980s, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -1.8 in 1994-2010. In women, total cancer mortality rates decreased throughout the study period, with an EAPC of -1.1 in 1992-2010. Trends in mortality were decreasing for most cancers in both sexes. Only pancreatic and lung cancer trends in women were unfavorable. Total numbers of predicted cancer deaths in Italy for 2015 increased to 102,647 men and 82,047 women; however, the predicted rates decreased in men (129.1/100,000), while remaining stable in women (82.6/100,000). Conclusions: Mortality rates for the most common cancers in Italy showed favorable trends that are likely to continue in the near future, with the exception of lung cancer mortality in women. Maintaining these trends requires continuous and improved control of tobacco, alcohol, and nutrition/overweight. Further improvements in diagnosis and treatment may also have a significant impact on cancer mortality.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 664-675 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Tumori |
| Volume | 101 |
| Issue number | 6 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Nov 1 2015 |
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Keywords
- Cancer
- Epidemiology
- Italy
- Mortality
- Projections
- Trends
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Cancer Research
- Oncology
Cite this
Cancer mortality trend analysis in Italy, 1980-2010, and predictions for 2015. / Rosso, Tiziana; Bertuccio, Paola; La Vecchia, Carlo; Negri, Eva; Malvezzi, Matteo.
In: Tumori, Vol. 101, No. 6, 01.11.2015, p. 664-675.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Cancer mortality trend analysis in Italy, 1980-2010, and predictions for 2015
AU - Rosso, Tiziana
AU - Bertuccio, Paola
AU - La Vecchia, Carlo
AU - Negri, Eva
AU - Malvezzi, Matteo
PY - 2015/11/1
Y1 - 2015/11/1
N2 - Aims: To update cancer mortality statistics in Italy, analyzing 1980-2010 trends, and to predict 2015 mortality rates. Methods: World Health Organization cancer mortality and census data were extracted to calculate death rates for 30 cancer sites from 1980 to 2010. Trends were analyzed with joinpoint regression and predicted 2015 deaths rates were computed. Results: In 2010 in Italy, there were 175,046 cancer deaths (98,847 men and 76,199 women), with total mortality rates, respectively, of 138.22 and 82.6/100,000. The leading cause of cancer death in men was lung cancer (25,457 deaths, 36.2/100,000), whereas in women it was breast cancer (12,115 deaths, 15.38/100,000). Total cancer mortality in men has been decreasing since the late 1980s, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -1.8 in 1994-2010. In women, total cancer mortality rates decreased throughout the study period, with an EAPC of -1.1 in 1992-2010. Trends in mortality were decreasing for most cancers in both sexes. Only pancreatic and lung cancer trends in women were unfavorable. Total numbers of predicted cancer deaths in Italy for 2015 increased to 102,647 men and 82,047 women; however, the predicted rates decreased in men (129.1/100,000), while remaining stable in women (82.6/100,000). Conclusions: Mortality rates for the most common cancers in Italy showed favorable trends that are likely to continue in the near future, with the exception of lung cancer mortality in women. Maintaining these trends requires continuous and improved control of tobacco, alcohol, and nutrition/overweight. Further improvements in diagnosis and treatment may also have a significant impact on cancer mortality.
AB - Aims: To update cancer mortality statistics in Italy, analyzing 1980-2010 trends, and to predict 2015 mortality rates. Methods: World Health Organization cancer mortality and census data were extracted to calculate death rates for 30 cancer sites from 1980 to 2010. Trends were analyzed with joinpoint regression and predicted 2015 deaths rates were computed. Results: In 2010 in Italy, there were 175,046 cancer deaths (98,847 men and 76,199 women), with total mortality rates, respectively, of 138.22 and 82.6/100,000. The leading cause of cancer death in men was lung cancer (25,457 deaths, 36.2/100,000), whereas in women it was breast cancer (12,115 deaths, 15.38/100,000). Total cancer mortality in men has been decreasing since the late 1980s, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -1.8 in 1994-2010. In women, total cancer mortality rates decreased throughout the study period, with an EAPC of -1.1 in 1992-2010. Trends in mortality were decreasing for most cancers in both sexes. Only pancreatic and lung cancer trends in women were unfavorable. Total numbers of predicted cancer deaths in Italy for 2015 increased to 102,647 men and 82,047 women; however, the predicted rates decreased in men (129.1/100,000), while remaining stable in women (82.6/100,000). Conclusions: Mortality rates for the most common cancers in Italy showed favorable trends that are likely to continue in the near future, with the exception of lung cancer mortality in women. Maintaining these trends requires continuous and improved control of tobacco, alcohol, and nutrition/overweight. Further improvements in diagnosis and treatment may also have a significant impact on cancer mortality.
KW - Cancer
KW - Epidemiology
KW - Italy
KW - Mortality
KW - Projections
KW - Trends
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84949460110&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84949460110&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.5301/tj.5000352
DO - 10.5301/tj.5000352
M3 - Article
VL - 101
SP - 664
EP - 675
JO - Tumori
JF - Tumori
SN - 0300-8916
IS - 6
ER -