Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010

A comparative risk assessment

Goodarz Danaei, Yuan Lu, Gitanjali M. Singh, Emily Carnahan, Gretchen A. Stevens, Melanie J. Cowan, Farshad Farzadfar, John K. Lin, Mariel M. Finucane, Mayuree Rao, Young Ho Khang, Leanne M. Riley, Dariush Mozaff Arian, Stephen S. Lim, Majid Ezzati, Geir Aamodt, Ziad Abdeen, Nabila A. Abdella, Hanan F Abdul Rahim, Juliet Addo & 321 others Wichai Aekplakorn, Mustafa M. Afifi, Enrico Agabiti-Rosei, Carlos A Aguilar Salinas, Charles Agyemang, Mohammed K. Ali, Mohamed M. Ali, Mohannad Al-Nsour, Abdul R. Al-Nuaim, Ramachandran Ambady, Emanuele Di Angelantonio, Pertti Aro, Fereidoun Azizi, Bontha V. Babu, Adil N. Bahalim, Carlo M. Barbagallo, Marco A. Barbieri, Alberto Barceló, Sandhi M. Barreto, Henrique Barros, Leonelo E. Bautista, Athanase Benetos, Peter Bjerregaard, Cecilia Björkelund, Simona Bo, Martin Bobak, Enzo Bonora, Manuel A. Botana, Pascal Bovet, Juergen Breckenkamp, Monique M. Breteler, Grazyna Broda, Ian J. Brown, Michael Bursztyn, Antonio Cabrera de León, Hannia Campos, Francesco P. Cappuccio, Vincenzo Capuano, Edoardo Casiglia, Maurizio Castellano, Katia Castetbon, Luis Cea, Chih Jen Chang, Noureddine Chaouki, Somnath Chatterji, Chien Jen Chen, Zhengming Chen, Jin Su Choi, Lily Chua, Renata Cífková, Linda J. Cobiac, Richard S. Cooper, Anna Maria Corsi, Michael C. Costanza, Cora L. Craig, Rachel S. Dankner, Saeed Dastgiri, Elias Delgado, Gonul Dinc, Yasufumi Doi, Guang Hui Dong, Eleonora Dorsi, Nico Dragano, Adam Drewnowski, Robert Eggertsen, Paul Elliott, Anders Engeland, Cihangir Erem, Alireza Esteghamati, Caroline H D Fall, Jian Gao Fan, Catterina Ferreccio, Leopold Fezeu, Josélia O. Firmo, Hermes J. Florez, Nélida S. Fornés, F. Gerry R Fowkes, Guido Franceschini, Fredrik Frisk, Flávio D. Fuchs, Eva L. Fuller, Linn Getz, Simona Giampaoli, Luis F. Gómez, Juan M. Gomez-Zumaquero, Sidsel Graff -Iversen, Janet F. Grant, Ramiro Guerrero Carvajal, Martin C. Gulliford, Rajeev Gupta, Prakash C. Gupta, Oye Gureje, Hialy R. Gutierrez, Tine W. Hansen, Jun Hata, Jiang He, Noor Heim, Joachim Heinrich, Tomas Hemmingsson, Anselm Hennis, William H. Herman, Victor M. Herrera, Suzanne Ho, Michelle Holdsworth, Gunilla Hollman Frisman, Wilma M. Hopman, Akhtar Hussain, Abdullatif Husseini, M. Mohsen Ibrahim, Nayu Ikeda, Bjarne K. Jacobsen, Hashem Y. Jaddou, Tazeen H. Jafar, Mohsen Janghorbani, Grazyna Jasienska, Michel R. Joffres, Jost B. Jonas, Othman A. Kadiki, Ofra Kalter-Leibovici, Raoul M. Kamadjeu, Stephen Kaptoge, Ioannis Karalis, Mika J. Kastarinen, Joanne Katz, Lital Keinan-Boker, Paul Kelly, Omid Khalilzadeh, Stefan Kiechl, Ki Woong Kim, Yutaka Kiyohara, Junji Kobayashi, Maressa P. Krause, Ružena Kubínová, Pawel Kurjata, Yadlapalli S. Kusuma, Tai H. Lam, Arnulf Langhammer, Carlene M M Lawes, Cai Le, Jeannette Lee, Claire Lévy-Marchal, Sarah Lewington, Yanping Li, Yuqiu Li, T. O. Lim, Xu Lin, Cheng Chieh Lin, Hsien Ho Lin, Lars Lind, Lauren Lissner, Xiaoqing Liu, Patricio Lopez-Jaramillo, Roberto Lorbeer, Guansheng Ma, Stefan Ma, Francesc Macià, David R. Maclean, Stefania Maggi, Dianna J. Magliano, Marcia Makdisse, Giuseppe Mancia, Toshifumi Mannami, Pedro Marques-Vidal, Jean Claude N Mbanya, Norma McFarlane-Anderson, Roberto Miccoli, Juhani Miettola, Hoang V. Minh, Juan F. Miquel, J. Jaime Miranda, Mostafa K. Mohamed, V. Mohan, Salim Mohanna, Ali Mokdad, Willem F. Mollentze, Dante D. Morales, Karen Morgan, M Muiesan Lorenza M Muiesan, Sergio Muntoni, Iraj Nabipour, Tomoko Nakagami, Vinay Nangia, Barbara Nemesure, Martin Neovius, Kjersti A. Nerhus, Flavio Nervi, Hannelore Neuhauser, Minh Nguyen, Toshiharu Ninomiya, Marianna Noale, Sang W. Oh, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Oliviero Olivieri, Ayse Emel önal, Altan Onat, Myriam Oróstegui, Hermann Ouedraogo, Wen Harn Pan, Demosthenes B. Panagiotakos, Francesco Panza, Yongsoo Park, Valeria M A Passos, Mangesh S. Pednekar, Pamela M. Pelizzari, Marco A. Peres, Pérez Cynthia Pérez, Román Pérez-Fernández, Rafael Pichardo, Hwee Pin Phua, Francesco Pistelli, Pedro Plans, Maria Polakowska, Neil Poulter, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Qing Qiao, Masoud Rafiei, Olli T. Raitakari, Luiz R. Ramos, Sanjay Rampal, Lekhraj Rampal, Finn Rasmussen, Kanala K R Reddy, Josep Redon, Luis Revilla, Victoria Reyes-García, Ragab B. Roaeid, Carolyn A. Robinson, Fernando Rodriguez-Artalejo, Rosalba Rojas-Martinez, Kimmo Ronkainen, Luis Rosero-Bixby, Gregory A. Roth, Harshpal S. Sachdev, José R. Sánchez, Selim Y. Sanisoglu, Susana Sans, Nizal Sarraf-Zadegan, Marcia Scazufca, Beatriz D. Schaan, Norberto Schapochnik, Hedi Schelleman, Ione J C Schneider, C. Mary Schooling, Bernhard Schwarz, Cevad Sekuri, Martha S. Sereday, Lluís Serra-Majem, Jonathan Shaw, Abdul S. Shera, Zumin Shi, Rahman Shiri, Xiao Ou Shu, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Eglé Silva, Leon A. Simons, Margaret Smith, Stefan Söderberg, Suharko Soebardi, Vincenzo Solfrizzi, Emily Sonestedt, Ahmet Soysal, Pär Stattin, Aryeh D. Stein, George S. Stergiou, Jochanan Stessman, Akihiro Sudo, Machi Suka, Valter Sundh, Kristina Sundquist, Johan Sundström, Andrew B. Swai, E. Shyong Tai, Kristian Tambs, Fikru Tesfaye, George N. Thomas, Margaret Thorogood, Reijo S. Tilvis, Martin Tobias, Liv E. Torheim, Peter Trenkwalder, Jaakko O. Tuomilehto, Josep A. Tur, Christophe Tzourio, Ana I. Uhernik, Flora A. Ukoli, Nigel Unwin, Stephen Vander Hoorn, Mark P. Vanderpump, Jose Javier Varo, Marit B. Veierød, Gustavo Velásquez-Meléndez, Monique Verschuren, Lucie Viet, Salvador Villalpando, Jesus Vioque, Peter Vollenweider, Stefano Volpato, Ningli Wang, Ya X. Wang, Mark Ward, Sarwono Waspadji, X Welin Lennart X Welin, Gary Whitlock, Lars Wilhelmsen, Johann Willeit, Mark Woodward, David Wormser, J Xavier André J Xavier, Fei Xu, Liang Xu, Akira Yamamoto, Gonghuan Yang, Xiaoguang Yang, Li Chia Yeh, Jin Sang Yoon, Qisheng You, Zhijie Yu, Jian Zhang, Lei Zhang, Wei Zheng, Maigeng Zhou

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

233 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. Findings: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)634-647
Number of pages14
JournalThe Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology
Volume2
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

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Chronic Renal Insufficiency
Cardiovascular Diseases
Mortality
Hypertension
Cholesterol
Republic of Belarus
Mongolia
Kazakhstan
Population
Glucose
Republic of Korea
Singapore
National Institutes of Health (U.S.)
Health Surveys
Netherlands
Spain
Uncertainty
France
Canada
Blood Glucose

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism
  • Internal Medicine
  • Endocrinology

Cite this

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010 : A comparative risk assessment. / Danaei, Goodarz; Lu, Yuan; Singh, Gitanjali M.; Carnahan, Emily; Stevens, Gretchen A.; Cowan, Melanie J.; Farzadfar, Farshad; Lin, John K.; Finucane, Mariel M.; Rao, Mayuree; Khang, Young Ho; Riley, Leanne M.; Arian, Dariush Mozaff; Lim, Stephen S.; Ezzati, Majid; Aamodt, Geir; Abdeen, Ziad; Abdella, Nabila A.; Rahim, Hanan F Abdul; Addo, Juliet; Aekplakorn, Wichai; Afifi, Mustafa M.; Agabiti-Rosei, Enrico; Salinas, Carlos A Aguilar; Agyemang, Charles; Ali, Mohammed K.; Ali, Mohamed M.; Al-Nsour, Mohannad; Al-Nuaim, Abdul R.; Ambady, Ramachandran; Angelantonio, Emanuele Di; Aro, Pertti; Azizi, Fereidoun; Babu, Bontha V.; Bahalim, Adil N.; Barbagallo, Carlo M.; Barbieri, Marco A.; Barceló, Alberto; Barreto, Sandhi M.; Barros, Henrique; Bautista, Leonelo E.; Benetos, Athanase; Bjerregaard, Peter; Björkelund, Cecilia; Bo, Simona; Bobak, Martin; Bonora, Enzo; Botana, Manuel A.; Bovet, Pascal; Breckenkamp, Juergen; Breteler, Monique M.; Broda, Grazyna; Brown, Ian J.; Bursztyn, Michael; de León, Antonio Cabrera; Campos, Hannia; Cappuccio, Francesco P.; Capuano, Vincenzo; Casiglia, Edoardo; Castellano, Maurizio; Castetbon, Katia; Cea, Luis; Chang, Chih Jen; Chaouki, Noureddine; Chatterji, Somnath; Chen, Chien Jen; Chen, Zhengming; Choi, Jin Su; Chua, Lily; Cífková, Renata; Cobiac, Linda J.; Cooper, Richard S.; Corsi, Anna Maria; Costanza, Michael C.; Craig, Cora L.; Dankner, Rachel S.; Dastgiri, Saeed; Delgado, Elias; Dinc, Gonul; Doi, Yasufumi; Dong, Guang Hui; Dorsi, Eleonora; Dragano, Nico; Drewnowski, Adam; Eggertsen, Robert; Elliott, Paul; Engeland, Anders; Erem, Cihangir; Esteghamati, Alireza; Fall, Caroline H D; Fan, Jian Gao; Ferreccio, Catterina; Fezeu, Leopold; Firmo, Josélia O.; Florez, Hermes J.; Fornés, Nélida S.; Fowkes, F. Gerry R; Franceschini, Guido; Frisk, Fredrik; Fuchs, Flávio D.; Fuller, Eva L.; Getz, Linn; Giampaoli, Simona; Gómez, Luis F.; Gomez-Zumaquero, Juan M.; -Iversen, Sidsel Graff; Grant, Janet F.; Carvajal, Ramiro Guerrero; Gulliford, Martin C.; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Prakash C.; Gureje, Oye; Gutierrez, Hialy R.; Hansen, Tine W.; Hata, Jun; He, Jiang; Heim, Noor; Heinrich, Joachim; Hemmingsson, Tomas; Hennis, Anselm; Herman, William H.; Herrera, Victor M.; Ho, Suzanne; Holdsworth, Michelle; Frisman, Gunilla Hollman; Hopman, Wilma M.; Hussain, Akhtar; Husseini, Abdullatif; Ibrahim, M. Mohsen; Ikeda, Nayu; Jacobsen, Bjarne K.; Jaddou, Hashem Y.; Jafar, Tazeen H.; Janghorbani, Mohsen; Jasienska, Grazyna; Joffres, Michel R.; Jonas, Jost B.; Kadiki, Othman A.; Kalter-Leibovici, Ofra; Kamadjeu, Raoul M.; Kaptoge, Stephen; Karalis, Ioannis; Kastarinen, Mika J.; Katz, Joanne; Keinan-Boker, Lital; Kelly, Paul; Khalilzadeh, Omid; Kiechl, Stefan; Kim, Ki Woong; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Kobayashi, Junji; Krause, Maressa P.; Kubínová, Ružena; Kurjata, Pawel; Kusuma, Yadlapalli S.; Lam, Tai H.; Langhammer, Arnulf; Lawes, Carlene M M; Le, Cai; Lee, Jeannette; Lévy-Marchal, Claire; Lewington, Sarah; Li, Yanping; Li, Yuqiu; Lim, T. O.; Lin, Xu; Lin, Cheng Chieh; Lin, Hsien Ho; Lind, Lars; Lissner, Lauren; Liu, Xiaoqing; Lopez-Jaramillo, Patricio; Lorbeer, Roberto; Ma, Guansheng; Ma, Stefan; Macià, Francesc; Maclean, David R.; Maggi, Stefania; Magliano, Dianna J.; Makdisse, Marcia; Mancia, Giuseppe; Mannami, Toshifumi; Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Mbanya, Jean Claude N; McFarlane-Anderson, Norma; Miccoli, Roberto; Miettola, Juhani; Minh, Hoang V.; Miquel, Juan F.; Miranda, J. Jaime; Mohamed, Mostafa K.; Mohan, V.; Mohanna, Salim; Mokdad, Ali; Mollentze, Willem F.; Morales, Dante D.; Morgan, Karen; Lorenza M Muiesan, M Muiesan; Muntoni, Sergio; Nabipour, Iraj; Nakagami, Tomoko; Nangia, Vinay; Nemesure, Barbara; Neovius, Martin; Nerhus, Kjersti A.; Nervi, Flavio; Neuhauser, Hannelore; Nguyen, Minh; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Noale, Marianna; Oh, Sang W.; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Olivieri, Oliviero; önal, Ayse Emel; Onat, Altan; Oróstegui, Myriam; Ouedraogo, Hermann; Pan, Wen Harn; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B.; Panza, Francesco; Park, Yongsoo; Passos, Valeria M A; Pednekar, Mangesh S.; Pelizzari, Pamela M.; Peres, Marco A.; Cynthia Pérez, Pérez; Pérez-Fernández, Román; Pichardo, Rafael; Phua, Hwee Pin; Pistelli, Francesco; Plans, Pedro; Polakowska, Maria; Poulter, Neil; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Qiao, Qing; Rafiei, Masoud; Raitakari, Olli T.; Ramos, Luiz R.; Rampal, Sanjay; Rampal, Lekhraj; Rasmussen, Finn; Reddy, Kanala K R; Redon, Josep; Revilla, Luis; Reyes-García, Victoria; Roaeid, Ragab B.; Robinson, Carolyn A.; Rodriguez-Artalejo, Fernando; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Ronkainen, Kimmo; Rosero-Bixby, Luis; Roth, Gregory A.; Sachdev, Harshpal S.; Sánchez, José R.; Sanisoglu, Selim Y.; Sans, Susana; Sarraf-Zadegan, Nizal; Scazufca, Marcia; Schaan, Beatriz D.; Schapochnik, Norberto; Schelleman, Hedi; Schneider, Ione J C; Schooling, C. Mary; Schwarz, Bernhard; Sekuri, Cevad; Sereday, Martha S.; Serra-Majem, Lluís; Shaw, Jonathan; Shera, Abdul S.; Shi, Zumin; Shiri, Rahman; Shu, Xiao Ou; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Silva, Eglé; Simons, Leon A.; Smith, Margaret; Söderberg, Stefan; Soebardi, Suharko; Solfrizzi, Vincenzo; Sonestedt, Emily; Soysal, Ahmet; Stattin, Pär; Stein, Aryeh D.; Stergiou, George S.; Stessman, Jochanan; Sudo, Akihiro; Suka, Machi; Sundh, Valter; Sundquist, Kristina; Sundström, Johan; Swai, Andrew B.; Tai, E. Shyong; Tambs, Kristian; Tesfaye, Fikru; Thomas, George N.; Thorogood, Margaret; Tilvis, Reijo S.; Tobias, Martin; Torheim, Liv E.; Trenkwalder, Peter; Tuomilehto, Jaakko O.; Tur, Josep A.; Tzourio, Christophe; Uhernik, Ana I.; Ukoli, Flora A.; Unwin, Nigel; Hoorn, Stephen Vander; Vanderpump, Mark P.; Varo, Jose Javier; Veierød, Marit B.; Velásquez-Meléndez, Gustavo; Verschuren, Monique; Viet, Lucie; Villalpando, Salvador; Vioque, Jesus; Vollenweider, Peter; Volpato, Stefano; Wang, Ningli; Wang, Ya X.; Ward, Mark; Waspadji, Sarwono; Lennart X Welin, X Welin; Whitlock, Gary; Wilhelmsen, Lars; Willeit, Johann; Woodward, Mark; Wormser, David; André J Xavier, J Xavier; Xu, Fei; Xu, Liang; Yamamoto, Akira; Yang, Gonghuan; Yang, Xiaoguang; Yeh, Li Chia; Yoon, Jin Sang; You, Qisheng; Yu, Zhijie; Zhang, Jian; Zhang, Lei; Zheng, Wei; Zhou, Maigeng.

In: The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology, Vol. 2, No. 8, 2014, p. 634-647.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Danaei, G, Lu, Y, Singh, GM, Carnahan, E, Stevens, GA, Cowan, MJ, Farzadfar, F, Lin, JK, Finucane, MM, Rao, M, Khang, YH, Riley, LM, Arian, DM, Lim, SS, Ezzati, M, Aamodt, G, Abdeen, Z, Abdella, NA, Rahim, HFA, Addo, J, Aekplakorn, W, Afifi, MM, Agabiti-Rosei, E, Salinas, CAA, Agyemang, C, Ali, MK, Ali, MM, Al-Nsour, M, Al-Nuaim, AR, Ambady, R, Angelantonio, ED, Aro, P, Azizi, F, Babu, BV, Bahalim, AN, Barbagallo, CM, Barbieri, MA, Barceló, A, Barreto, SM, Barros, H, Bautista, LE, Benetos, A, Bjerregaard, P, Björkelund, C, Bo, S, Bobak, M, Bonora, E, Botana, MA, Bovet, P, Breckenkamp, J, Breteler, MM, Broda, G, Brown, IJ, Bursztyn, M, de León, AC, Campos, H, Cappuccio, FP, Capuano, V, Casiglia, E, Castellano, M, Castetbon, K, Cea, L, Chang, CJ, Chaouki, N, Chatterji, S, Chen, CJ, Chen, Z, Choi, JS, Chua, L, Cífková, R, Cobiac, LJ, Cooper, RS, Corsi, AM, Costanza, MC, Craig, CL, Dankner, RS, Dastgiri, S, Delgado, E, Dinc, G, Doi, Y, Dong, GH, Dorsi, E, Dragano, N, Drewnowski, A, Eggertsen, R, Elliott, P, Engeland, A, Erem, C, Esteghamati, A, Fall, CHD, Fan, JG, Ferreccio, C, Fezeu, L, Firmo, JO, Florez, HJ, Fornés, NS, Fowkes, FGR, Franceschini, G, Frisk, F, Fuchs, FD, Fuller, EL, Getz, L, Giampaoli, S, Gómez, LF, Gomez-Zumaquero, JM, -Iversen, SG, Grant, JF, Carvajal, RG, Gulliford, MC, Gupta, R, Gupta, PC, Gureje, O, Gutierrez, HR, Hansen, TW, Hata, J, He, J, Heim, N, Heinrich, J, Hemmingsson, T, Hennis, A, Herman, WH, Herrera, VM, Ho, S, Holdsworth, M, Frisman, GH, Hopman, WM, Hussain, A, Husseini, A, Ibrahim, MM, Ikeda, N, Jacobsen, BK, Jaddou, HY, Jafar, TH, Janghorbani, M, Jasienska, G, Joffres, MR, Jonas, JB, Kadiki, OA, Kalter-Leibovici, O, Kamadjeu, RM, Kaptoge, S, Karalis, I, Kastarinen, MJ, Katz, J, Keinan-Boker, L, Kelly, P, Khalilzadeh, O, Kiechl, S, Kim, KW, Kiyohara, Y, Kobayashi, J, Krause, MP, Kubínová, R, Kurjata, P, Kusuma, YS, Lam, TH, Langhammer, A, Lawes, CMM, Le, C, Lee, J, Lévy-Marchal, C, Lewington, S, Li, Y, Li, Y, Lim, TO, Lin, X, Lin, CC, Lin, HH, Lind, L, Lissner, L, Liu, X, Lopez-Jaramillo, P, Lorbeer, R, Ma, G, Ma, S, Macià, F, Maclean, DR, Maggi, S, Magliano, DJ, Makdisse, M, Mancia, G, Mannami, T, Marques-Vidal, P, Mbanya, JCN, McFarlane-Anderson, N, Miccoli, R, Miettola, J, Minh, HV, Miquel, JF, Miranda, JJ, Mohamed, MK, Mohan, V, Mohanna, S, Mokdad, A, Mollentze, WF, Morales, DD, Morgan, K, Lorenza M Muiesan, MM, Muntoni, S, Nabipour, I, Nakagami, T, Nangia, V, Nemesure, B, Neovius, M, Nerhus, KA, Nervi, F, Neuhauser, H, Nguyen, M, Ninomiya, T, Noale, M, Oh, SW, Ohkubo, T, Olivieri, O, önal, AE, Onat, A, Oróstegui, M, Ouedraogo, H, Pan, WH, Panagiotakos, DB, Panza, F, Park, Y, Passos, VMA, Pednekar, MS, Pelizzari, PM, Peres, MA, Cynthia Pérez, P, Pérez-Fernández, R, Pichardo, R, Phua, HP, Pistelli, F, Plans, P, Polakowska, M, Poulter, N, Prabhakaran, D, Qiao, Q, Rafiei, M, Raitakari, OT, Ramos, LR, Rampal, S, Rampal, L, Rasmussen, F, Reddy, KKR, Redon, J, Revilla, L, Reyes-García, V, Roaeid, RB, Robinson, CA, Rodriguez-Artalejo, F, Rojas-Martinez, R, Ronkainen, K, Rosero-Bixby, L, Roth, GA, Sachdev, HS, Sánchez, JR, Sanisoglu, SY, Sans, S, Sarraf-Zadegan, N, Scazufca, M, Schaan, BD, Schapochnik, N, Schelleman, H, Schneider, IJC, Schooling, CM, Schwarz, B, Sekuri, C, Sereday, MS, Serra-Majem, L, Shaw, J, Shera, AS, Shi, Z, Shiri, R, Shu, XO, Silva, DAS, Silva, E, Simons, LA, Smith, M, Söderberg, S, Soebardi, S, Solfrizzi, V, Sonestedt, E, Soysal, A, Stattin, P, Stein, AD, Stergiou, GS, Stessman, J, Sudo, A, Suka, M, Sundh, V, Sundquist, K, Sundström, J, Swai, AB, Tai, ES, Tambs, K, Tesfaye, F, Thomas, GN, Thorogood, M, Tilvis, RS, Tobias, M, Torheim, LE, Trenkwalder, P, Tuomilehto, JO, Tur, JA, Tzourio, C, Uhernik, AI, Ukoli, FA, Unwin, N, Hoorn, SV, Vanderpump, MP, Varo, JJ, Veierød, MB, Velásquez-Meléndez, G, Verschuren, M, Viet, L, Villalpando, S, Vioque, J, Vollenweider, P, Volpato, S, Wang, N, Wang, YX, Ward, M, Waspadji, S, Lennart X Welin, XW, Whitlock, G, Wilhelmsen, L, Willeit, J, Woodward, M, Wormser, D, André J Xavier, JX, Xu, F, Xu, L, Yamamoto, A, Yang, G, Yang, X, Yeh, LC, Yoon, JS, You, Q, Yu, Z, Zhang, J, Zhang, L, Zheng, W & Zhou, M 2014, 'Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: A comparative risk assessment', The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology, vol. 2, no. 8, pp. 634-647. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-8587(14)70102-0
Danaei, Goodarz ; Lu, Yuan ; Singh, Gitanjali M. ; Carnahan, Emily ; Stevens, Gretchen A. ; Cowan, Melanie J. ; Farzadfar, Farshad ; Lin, John K. ; Finucane, Mariel M. ; Rao, Mayuree ; Khang, Young Ho ; Riley, Leanne M. ; Arian, Dariush Mozaff ; Lim, Stephen S. ; Ezzati, Majid ; Aamodt, Geir ; Abdeen, Ziad ; Abdella, Nabila A. ; Rahim, Hanan F Abdul ; Addo, Juliet ; Aekplakorn, Wichai ; Afifi, Mustafa M. ; Agabiti-Rosei, Enrico ; Salinas, Carlos A Aguilar ; Agyemang, Charles ; Ali, Mohammed K. ; Ali, Mohamed M. ; Al-Nsour, Mohannad ; Al-Nuaim, Abdul R. ; Ambady, Ramachandran ; Angelantonio, Emanuele Di ; Aro, Pertti ; Azizi, Fereidoun ; Babu, Bontha V. ; Bahalim, Adil N. ; Barbagallo, Carlo M. ; Barbieri, Marco A. ; Barceló, Alberto ; Barreto, Sandhi M. ; Barros, Henrique ; Bautista, Leonelo E. ; Benetos, Athanase ; Bjerregaard, Peter ; Björkelund, Cecilia ; Bo, Simona ; Bobak, Martin ; Bonora, Enzo ; Botana, Manuel A. ; Bovet, Pascal ; Breckenkamp, Juergen ; Breteler, Monique M. ; Broda, Grazyna ; Brown, Ian J. ; Bursztyn, Michael ; de León, Antonio Cabrera ; Campos, Hannia ; Cappuccio, Francesco P. ; Capuano, Vincenzo ; Casiglia, Edoardo ; Castellano, Maurizio ; Castetbon, Katia ; Cea, Luis ; Chang, Chih Jen ; Chaouki, Noureddine ; Chatterji, Somnath ; Chen, Chien Jen ; Chen, Zhengming ; Choi, Jin Su ; Chua, Lily ; Cífková, Renata ; Cobiac, Linda J. ; Cooper, Richard S. ; Corsi, Anna Maria ; Costanza, Michael C. ; Craig, Cora L. ; Dankner, Rachel S. ; Dastgiri, Saeed ; Delgado, Elias ; Dinc, Gonul ; Doi, Yasufumi ; Dong, Guang Hui ; Dorsi, Eleonora ; Dragano, Nico ; Drewnowski, Adam ; Eggertsen, Robert ; Elliott, Paul ; Engeland, Anders ; Erem, Cihangir ; Esteghamati, Alireza ; Fall, Caroline H D ; Fan, Jian Gao ; Ferreccio, Catterina ; Fezeu, Leopold ; Firmo, Josélia O. ; Florez, Hermes J. ; Fornés, Nélida S. ; Fowkes, F. Gerry R ; Franceschini, Guido ; Frisk, Fredrik ; Fuchs, Flávio D. ; Fuller, Eva L. ; Getz, Linn ; Giampaoli, Simona ; Gómez, Luis F. ; Gomez-Zumaquero, Juan M. ; -Iversen, Sidsel Graff ; Grant, Janet F. ; Carvajal, Ramiro Guerrero ; Gulliford, Martin C. ; Gupta, Rajeev ; Gupta, Prakash C. ; Gureje, Oye ; Gutierrez, Hialy R. ; Hansen, Tine W. ; Hata, Jun ; He, Jiang ; Heim, Noor ; Heinrich, Joachim ; Hemmingsson, Tomas ; Hennis, Anselm ; Herman, William H. ; Herrera, Victor M. ; Ho, Suzanne ; Holdsworth, Michelle ; Frisman, Gunilla Hollman ; Hopman, Wilma M. ; Hussain, Akhtar ; Husseini, Abdullatif ; Ibrahim, M. Mohsen ; Ikeda, Nayu ; Jacobsen, Bjarne K. ; Jaddou, Hashem Y. ; Jafar, Tazeen H. ; Janghorbani, Mohsen ; Jasienska, Grazyna ; Joffres, Michel R. ; Jonas, Jost B. ; Kadiki, Othman A. ; Kalter-Leibovici, Ofra ; Kamadjeu, Raoul M. ; Kaptoge, Stephen ; Karalis, Ioannis ; Kastarinen, Mika J. ; Katz, Joanne ; Keinan-Boker, Lital ; Kelly, Paul ; Khalilzadeh, Omid ; Kiechl, Stefan ; Kim, Ki Woong ; Kiyohara, Yutaka ; Kobayashi, Junji ; Krause, Maressa P. ; Kubínová, Ružena ; Kurjata, Pawel ; Kusuma, Yadlapalli S. ; Lam, Tai H. ; Langhammer, Arnulf ; Lawes, Carlene M M ; Le, Cai ; Lee, Jeannette ; Lévy-Marchal, Claire ; Lewington, Sarah ; Li, Yanping ; Li, Yuqiu ; Lim, T. O. ; Lin, Xu ; Lin, Cheng Chieh ; Lin, Hsien Ho ; Lind, Lars ; Lissner, Lauren ; Liu, Xiaoqing ; Lopez-Jaramillo, Patricio ; Lorbeer, Roberto ; Ma, Guansheng ; Ma, Stefan ; Macià, Francesc ; Maclean, David R. ; Maggi, Stefania ; Magliano, Dianna J. ; Makdisse, Marcia ; Mancia, Giuseppe ; Mannami, Toshifumi ; Marques-Vidal, Pedro ; Mbanya, Jean Claude N ; McFarlane-Anderson, Norma ; Miccoli, Roberto ; Miettola, Juhani ; Minh, Hoang V. ; Miquel, Juan F. ; Miranda, J. Jaime ; Mohamed, Mostafa K. ; Mohan, V. ; Mohanna, Salim ; Mokdad, Ali ; Mollentze, Willem F. ; Morales, Dante D. ; Morgan, Karen ; Lorenza M Muiesan, M Muiesan ; Muntoni, Sergio ; Nabipour, Iraj ; Nakagami, Tomoko ; Nangia, Vinay ; Nemesure, Barbara ; Neovius, Martin ; Nerhus, Kjersti A. ; Nervi, Flavio ; Neuhauser, Hannelore ; Nguyen, Minh ; Ninomiya, Toshiharu ; Noale, Marianna ; Oh, Sang W. ; Ohkubo, Takayoshi ; Olivieri, Oliviero ; önal, Ayse Emel ; Onat, Altan ; Oróstegui, Myriam ; Ouedraogo, Hermann ; Pan, Wen Harn ; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B. ; Panza, Francesco ; Park, Yongsoo ; Passos, Valeria M A ; Pednekar, Mangesh S. ; Pelizzari, Pamela M. ; Peres, Marco A. ; Cynthia Pérez, Pérez ; Pérez-Fernández, Román ; Pichardo, Rafael ; Phua, Hwee Pin ; Pistelli, Francesco ; Plans, Pedro ; Polakowska, Maria ; Poulter, Neil ; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj ; Qiao, Qing ; Rafiei, Masoud ; Raitakari, Olli T. ; Ramos, Luiz R. ; Rampal, Sanjay ; Rampal, Lekhraj ; Rasmussen, Finn ; Reddy, Kanala K R ; Redon, Josep ; Revilla, Luis ; Reyes-García, Victoria ; Roaeid, Ragab B. ; Robinson, Carolyn A. ; Rodriguez-Artalejo, Fernando ; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba ; Ronkainen, Kimmo ; Rosero-Bixby, Luis ; Roth, Gregory A. ; Sachdev, Harshpal S. ; Sánchez, José R. ; Sanisoglu, Selim Y. ; Sans, Susana ; Sarraf-Zadegan, Nizal ; Scazufca, Marcia ; Schaan, Beatriz D. ; Schapochnik, Norberto ; Schelleman, Hedi ; Schneider, Ione J C ; Schooling, C. Mary ; Schwarz, Bernhard ; Sekuri, Cevad ; Sereday, Martha S. ; Serra-Majem, Lluís ; Shaw, Jonathan ; Shera, Abdul S. ; Shi, Zumin ; Shiri, Rahman ; Shu, Xiao Ou ; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos ; Silva, Eglé ; Simons, Leon A. ; Smith, Margaret ; Söderberg, Stefan ; Soebardi, Suharko ; Solfrizzi, Vincenzo ; Sonestedt, Emily ; Soysal, Ahmet ; Stattin, Pär ; Stein, Aryeh D. ; Stergiou, George S. ; Stessman, Jochanan ; Sudo, Akihiro ; Suka, Machi ; Sundh, Valter ; Sundquist, Kristina ; Sundström, Johan ; Swai, Andrew B. ; Tai, E. Shyong ; Tambs, Kristian ; Tesfaye, Fikru ; Thomas, George N. ; Thorogood, Margaret ; Tilvis, Reijo S. ; Tobias, Martin ; Torheim, Liv E. ; Trenkwalder, Peter ; Tuomilehto, Jaakko O. ; Tur, Josep A. ; Tzourio, Christophe ; Uhernik, Ana I. ; Ukoli, Flora A. ; Unwin, Nigel ; Hoorn, Stephen Vander ; Vanderpump, Mark P. ; Varo, Jose Javier ; Veierød, Marit B. ; Velásquez-Meléndez, Gustavo ; Verschuren, Monique ; Viet, Lucie ; Villalpando, Salvador ; Vioque, Jesus ; Vollenweider, Peter ; Volpato, Stefano ; Wang, Ningli ; Wang, Ya X. ; Ward, Mark ; Waspadji, Sarwono ; Lennart X Welin, X Welin ; Whitlock, Gary ; Wilhelmsen, Lars ; Willeit, Johann ; Woodward, Mark ; Wormser, David ; André J Xavier, J Xavier ; Xu, Fei ; Xu, Liang ; Yamamoto, Akira ; Yang, Gonghuan ; Yang, Xiaoguang ; Yeh, Li Chia ; Yoon, Jin Sang ; You, Qisheng ; Yu, Zhijie ; Zhang, Jian ; Zhang, Lei ; Zheng, Wei ; Zhou, Maigeng. / Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010 : A comparative risk assessment. In: The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology. 2014 ; Vol. 2, No. 8. pp. 634-647.
@article{d9ad6703d2a74776b019c33e0287b85d,
title = "Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: A comparative risk assessment",
abstract = "Background: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. Findings: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40{\%} of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15{\%} of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10{\%}. After accounting for multicausality, 63{\%} (10·8 million deaths, 95{\%} CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67{\%} (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health.",
author = "Goodarz Danaei and Yuan Lu and Singh, {Gitanjali M.} and Emily Carnahan and Stevens, {Gretchen A.} and Cowan, {Melanie J.} and Farshad Farzadfar and Lin, {John K.} and Finucane, {Mariel M.} and Mayuree Rao and Khang, {Young Ho} and Riley, {Leanne M.} and Arian, {Dariush Mozaff} and Lim, {Stephen S.} and Majid Ezzati and Geir Aamodt and Ziad Abdeen and Abdella, {Nabila A.} and Rahim, {Hanan F Abdul} and Juliet Addo and Wichai Aekplakorn and Afifi, {Mustafa M.} and Enrico Agabiti-Rosei and Salinas, {Carlos A Aguilar} and Charles Agyemang and Ali, {Mohammed K.} and Ali, {Mohamed M.} and Mohannad Al-Nsour and Al-Nuaim, {Abdul R.} and Ramachandran Ambady and Angelantonio, {Emanuele Di} and Pertti Aro and Fereidoun Azizi and Babu, {Bontha V.} and Bahalim, {Adil N.} and Barbagallo, {Carlo M.} and Barbieri, {Marco A.} and Alberto Barcel{\'o} and Barreto, {Sandhi M.} and Henrique Barros and Bautista, {Leonelo E.} and Athanase Benetos and Peter Bjerregaard and Cecilia Bj{\"o}rkelund and Simona Bo and Martin Bobak and Enzo Bonora and Botana, {Manuel A.} and Pascal Bovet and Juergen Breckenkamp and Breteler, {Monique M.} and Grazyna Broda and Brown, {Ian J.} and Michael Bursztyn and {de Le{\'o}n}, {Antonio Cabrera} and Hannia Campos and Cappuccio, {Francesco P.} and Vincenzo Capuano and Edoardo Casiglia and Maurizio Castellano and Katia Castetbon and Luis Cea and Chang, {Chih Jen} and Noureddine Chaouki and Somnath Chatterji and Chen, {Chien Jen} and Zhengming Chen and Choi, {Jin Su} and Lily Chua and Renata C{\'i}fkov{\'a} and Cobiac, {Linda J.} and Cooper, {Richard S.} and Corsi, {Anna Maria} and Costanza, {Michael C.} and Craig, {Cora L.} and Dankner, {Rachel S.} and Saeed Dastgiri and Elias Delgado and Gonul Dinc and Yasufumi Doi and Dong, {Guang Hui} and Eleonora Dorsi and Nico Dragano and Adam Drewnowski and Robert Eggertsen and Paul Elliott and Anders Engeland and Cihangir Erem and Alireza Esteghamati and Fall, {Caroline H D} and Fan, {Jian Gao} and Catterina Ferreccio and Leopold Fezeu and Firmo, {Jos{\'e}lia O.} and Florez, {Hermes J.} and Forn{\'e}s, {N{\'e}lida S.} and Fowkes, {F. Gerry R} and Guido Franceschini and Fredrik Frisk and Fuchs, {Fl{\'a}vio D.} and Fuller, {Eva L.} and Linn Getz and Simona Giampaoli and G{\'o}mez, {Luis F.} and Gomez-Zumaquero, {Juan M.} and -Iversen, {Sidsel Graff} and Grant, {Janet F.} and Carvajal, {Ramiro Guerrero} and Gulliford, {Martin C.} and Rajeev Gupta and Gupta, {Prakash C.} and Oye Gureje and Gutierrez, {Hialy R.} and Hansen, {Tine W.} and Jun Hata and Jiang He and Noor Heim and Joachim Heinrich and Tomas Hemmingsson and Anselm Hennis and Herman, {William H.} and Herrera, {Victor M.} and Suzanne Ho and Michelle Holdsworth and Frisman, {Gunilla Hollman} and Hopman, {Wilma M.} and Akhtar Hussain and Abdullatif Husseini and Ibrahim, {M. Mohsen} and Nayu Ikeda and Jacobsen, {Bjarne K.} and Jaddou, {Hashem Y.} and Jafar, {Tazeen H.} and Mohsen Janghorbani and Grazyna Jasienska and Joffres, {Michel R.} and Jonas, {Jost B.} and Kadiki, {Othman A.} and Ofra Kalter-Leibovici and Kamadjeu, {Raoul M.} and Stephen Kaptoge and Ioannis Karalis and Kastarinen, {Mika J.} and Joanne Katz and Lital Keinan-Boker and Paul Kelly and Omid Khalilzadeh and Stefan Kiechl and Kim, {Ki Woong} and Yutaka Kiyohara and Junji Kobayashi and Krause, {Maressa P.} and Ružena Kub{\'i}nov{\'a} and Pawel Kurjata and Kusuma, {Yadlapalli S.} and Lam, {Tai H.} and Arnulf Langhammer and Lawes, {Carlene M M} and Cai Le and Jeannette Lee and Claire L{\'e}vy-Marchal and Sarah Lewington and Yanping Li and Yuqiu Li and Lim, {T. O.} and Xu Lin and Lin, {Cheng Chieh} and Lin, {Hsien Ho} and Lars Lind and Lauren Lissner and Xiaoqing Liu and Patricio Lopez-Jaramillo and Roberto Lorbeer and Guansheng Ma and Stefan Ma and Francesc Maci{\`a} and Maclean, {David R.} and Stefania Maggi and Magliano, {Dianna J.} and Marcia Makdisse and Giuseppe Mancia and Toshifumi Mannami and Pedro Marques-Vidal and Mbanya, {Jean Claude N} and Norma McFarlane-Anderson and Roberto Miccoli and Juhani Miettola and Minh, {Hoang V.} and Miquel, {Juan F.} and Miranda, {J. Jaime} and Mohamed, {Mostafa K.} and V. Mohan and Salim Mohanna and Ali Mokdad and Mollentze, {Willem F.} and Morales, {Dante D.} and Karen Morgan and {Lorenza M Muiesan}, {M Muiesan} and Sergio Muntoni and Iraj Nabipour and Tomoko Nakagami and Vinay Nangia and Barbara Nemesure and Martin Neovius and Nerhus, {Kjersti A.} and Flavio Nervi and Hannelore Neuhauser and Minh Nguyen and Toshiharu Ninomiya and Marianna Noale and Oh, {Sang W.} and Takayoshi Ohkubo and Oliviero Olivieri and {\"o}nal, {Ayse Emel} and Altan Onat and Myriam Or{\'o}stegui and Hermann Ouedraogo and Pan, {Wen Harn} and Panagiotakos, {Demosthenes B.} and Francesco Panza and Yongsoo Park and Passos, {Valeria M A} and Pednekar, {Mangesh S.} and Pelizzari, {Pamela M.} and Peres, {Marco A.} and {Cynthia P{\'e}rez}, P{\'e}rez and Rom{\'a}n P{\'e}rez-Fern{\'a}ndez and Rafael Pichardo and Phua, {Hwee Pin} and Francesco Pistelli and Pedro Plans and Maria Polakowska and Neil Poulter and Dorairaj Prabhakaran and Qing Qiao and Masoud Rafiei and Raitakari, {Olli T.} and Ramos, {Luiz R.} and Sanjay Rampal and Lekhraj Rampal and Finn Rasmussen and Reddy, {Kanala K R} and Josep Redon and Luis Revilla and Victoria Reyes-Garc{\'i}a and Roaeid, {Ragab B.} and Robinson, {Carolyn A.} and Fernando Rodriguez-Artalejo and Rosalba Rojas-Martinez and Kimmo Ronkainen and Luis Rosero-Bixby and Roth, {Gregory A.} and Sachdev, {Harshpal S.} and S{\'a}nchez, {Jos{\'e} R.} and Sanisoglu, {Selim Y.} and Susana Sans and Nizal Sarraf-Zadegan and Marcia Scazufca and Schaan, {Beatriz D.} and Norberto Schapochnik and Hedi Schelleman and Schneider, {Ione J C} and Schooling, {C. Mary} and Bernhard Schwarz and Cevad Sekuri and Sereday, {Martha S.} and Llu{\'i}s Serra-Majem and Jonathan Shaw and Shera, {Abdul S.} and Zumin Shi and Rahman Shiri and Shu, {Xiao Ou} and Silva, {Diego Augusto Santos} and Egl{\'e} Silva and Simons, {Leon A.} and Margaret Smith and Stefan S{\"o}derberg and Suharko Soebardi and Vincenzo Solfrizzi and Emily Sonestedt and Ahmet Soysal and P{\"a}r Stattin and Stein, {Aryeh D.} and Stergiou, {George S.} and Jochanan Stessman and Akihiro Sudo and Machi Suka and Valter Sundh and Kristina Sundquist and Johan Sundstr{\"o}m and Swai, {Andrew B.} and Tai, {E. Shyong} and Kristian Tambs and Fikru Tesfaye and Thomas, {George N.} and Margaret Thorogood and Tilvis, {Reijo S.} and Martin Tobias and Torheim, {Liv E.} and Peter Trenkwalder and Tuomilehto, {Jaakko O.} and Tur, {Josep A.} and Christophe Tzourio and Uhernik, {Ana I.} and Ukoli, {Flora A.} and Nigel Unwin and Hoorn, {Stephen Vander} and Vanderpump, {Mark P.} and Varo, {Jose Javier} and Veier{\o}d, {Marit B.} and Gustavo Vel{\'a}squez-Mel{\'e}ndez and Monique Verschuren and Lucie Viet and Salvador Villalpando and Jesus Vioque and Peter Vollenweider and Stefano Volpato and Ningli Wang and Wang, {Ya X.} and Mark Ward and Sarwono Waspadji and {Lennart X Welin}, {X Welin} and Gary Whitlock and Lars Wilhelmsen and Johann Willeit and Mark Woodward and David Wormser and {Andr{\'e} J Xavier}, {J Xavier} and Fei Xu and Liang Xu and Akira Yamamoto and Gonghuan Yang and Xiaoguang Yang and Yeh, {Li Chia} and Yoon, {Jin Sang} and Qisheng You and Zhijie Yu and Jian Zhang and Lei Zhang and Wei Zheng and Maigeng Zhou",
year = "2014",
doi = "10.1016/S2213-8587(14)70102-0",
language = "English",
volume = "2",
pages = "634--647",
journal = "The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology",
issn = "2213-8587",
publisher = "Elsevier BV",
number = "8",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010

T2 - A comparative risk assessment

AU - Danaei, Goodarz

AU - Lu, Yuan

AU - Singh, Gitanjali M.

AU - Carnahan, Emily

AU - Stevens, Gretchen A.

AU - Cowan, Melanie J.

AU - Farzadfar, Farshad

AU - Lin, John K.

AU - Finucane, Mariel M.

AU - Rao, Mayuree

AU - Khang, Young Ho

AU - Riley, Leanne M.

AU - Arian, Dariush Mozaff

AU - Lim, Stephen S.

AU - Ezzati, Majid

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AU - Zhou, Maigeng

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - Background: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. Findings: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health.

AB - Background: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. Findings: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health.

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U2 - 10.1016/S2213-8587(14)70102-0

DO - 10.1016/S2213-8587(14)70102-0

M3 - Article

VL - 2

SP - 634

EP - 647

JO - The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology

JF - The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology

SN - 2213-8587

IS - 8

ER -