Common cardiovascular risk factors and in-hospital mortality in 3,894 patients with COVID-19: survival analysis and machine learning-based findings from the multicentre Italian CORIST Study

Augusto Di Castelnuovo, Marialaura Bonaccio, Simona Costanzo, Alessandro Gialluisi, Andrea Antinori, Nausicaa Berselli, Lorenzo Blandi, Raffaele Bruno, Roberto Cauda, Giovanni Guaraldi, Ilaria My, Lorenzo Menicanti, Giustino Parruti, Giuseppe Patti, Stefano Perlini, Francesca Santilli, Carlo Signorelli, Giulio G. Stefanini, Alessandra Vergori, Amina AbdeddaimWalter Ageno, Antonella Agodi, Piergiuseppe Agostoni, Luca Aiello, Samir Al Moghazi, Filippo Aucella, Greta Barbieri, Alessandro Bartoloni, Carolina Bologna, Paolo Bonfanti, Serena Brancati, Francesco Cacciatore, Lucia Caiano, Francesco Cannata, Laura Carrozzi, Antonio Cascio, Antonella Cingolani, Francesco Cipollone, Claudia Colomba, Annalisa Crisetti, Francesca Crosta, Gian B. Danzi, Damiano D'Ardes, Katleen de Gaetano Donati, Francesco Di Gennaro, Gisella Di Palma, Giuseppe Di Tano, Massimo Fantoni, Tommaso Filippini, Paola Fioretto, Francesco M. Fusco, Ivan Gentile, Leonardo Grisafi, Gabriella Guarnieri, Francesco Landi, Giovanni Larizza, Armando Leone, Gloria Maccagni, Sandro Maccarella, Massimo Mapelli, Riccardo Maragna, Rossella Marcucci, Giulio Maresca, Claudia Marotta, Lorenzo Marra, Franco Mastroianni, Alessandro Mengozzi, Francesco Menichetti, Jovana Milic, Rita Murri, Arturo Montineri, Roberta Mussinelli, Cristina Mussini, Maria Musso, Anna Odone, Marco Olivieri, Emanuela Pasi, Francesco Petri, Biagio Pinchera, Carlo A. Pivato, Roberto Pizzi, Venerino Poletti, Francesca Raffaelli, Claudia Ravaglia, Giulia Righetti, Andrea Rognoni, Marco Rossato, Marianna Rossi, Anna Sabena, Francesco Salinaro, Vincenzo Sangiovanni, Carlo Sanrocco, Antonio Scarafino, Laura Scorzolini, Raffaella Sgariglia, Paola G. Simeone, Enrico Spinoni, Carlo Torti, Enrico M. Trecarichi, Francesca Vezzani, Giovanni Veronesi, Roberto Vettor, Andrea Vianello, Marco Vinceti, Raffaele De Caterina, Licia Iacoviello

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Background and aims There is poor knowledge on characteristics, comorbidities and laboratory measures associated with risk for adverse outcomes and in-hospital mortality in European Countries. We aimed at identifying baseline characteristics predisposing COVID-19 patients to in-hospital death. Methods and results Retrospective observational study on 3894 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalized from February 19th to May 23rd, 2020 and recruited in 30 clinical centres distributed throughout Italy. Machine learning (random forest)-based and Cox survival analysis. 61.7% of participants were men (median age 67 years), followed up for a median of 13 days. In-hospital mortality exhibited a geographical gradient, Northern Italian regions featuring more than twofold higher death rates as compared to Central/Southern areas (15.6% vs 6.4%, respectively). Machine learning analysis revealed that the most important features in death classification were impaired renal function, elevated C reactive protein and advanced age. These findings were confirmed by multivariable Cox survival analysis (hazard ratio (HR): 8.2; 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.6–14.7 for age ≥85 vs 18–44 y); HR = 4.7; 2.9–7.7 for estimated glomerular filtration rate levels
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1899-1913
Number of pages15
JournalNutrition, Metabolism and Cardiovascular Diseases
Volume30
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2020

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • In-hospital mortality
  • Risk factors
  • Epidemiology

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