Continuous increase in HIV-1 incidence after the year 2000 among men who have sex with men in Rome

insights from a 25-year retrospective cohort study

M. Giuliani, M. F. Vescio, A. Latini, G. Palamara, F. Pimpinelli, M. G. Dona, F. Stivali, F. Carduccelli, F. Ensoli, A. Di Carlo, G. Rezza

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

To assess trends in HIV-1 incidence and risk factors for seroconversion among men who have sex with men (MSM) resident in Rome, Italy, a retrospective longitudinal cohort study was conducted over 25 years. Incidence rates and trends were modelled using Poisson regression and risk factors were assessed by multivariate Cox models. Of 1,862 HIV-1-negative individuals, 347 seroconverted during follow-up. HIV-1 incidence rates increased from 5.2/100 persons/year (p/y) in 1986 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.3–11.5) to 9.2/00 p/y in 1992 (95% CI: 6.4–13.0), decreased to 1.3/100 p/y in 2001 and increased until 2009 (11.7/100 p/y; 95% CI: 7.4–18.6). The risk of HIV-1 seroconversion increased during the study period in younger MSM (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 17.18; 95% CI: 9.74–30.32 in 16–32 year-olds and IRR = 5.09; 95% CI: 2.92–8.87 in 33–41 year-olds) and in those who acquired syphilis (IRR = 7.71; 95% CI: 5.00–11.88). In contrast, the risk of seroconversion decreased among highly educated MSM (IRR = 0.54; 95% CI: 0.35–0.82) and those without Italian citizenship (IRR = 0.45; 95% CI: 0.28–0.71). The HIV epidemic in MSM living in Rome continues to expand. Targeted prevention programmes against sexually transmitted infections to enhance knowledge transfer and behavioural skills are urgently required.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)20969
Number of pages1
JournalEuro surveillance : bulletin européen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin
Volume19
Issue number47
Publication statusPublished - 2014

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HIV-1
Cohort Studies
Retrospective Studies
Confidence Intervals
Incidence
HIV Seropositivity
Syphilis
Sexually Transmitted Diseases
Proportional Hazards Models
Italy
Longitudinal Studies
HIV

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

@article{eb7d69727f474eecaa77d67a38ec9d68,
title = "Continuous increase in HIV-1 incidence after the year 2000 among men who have sex with men in Rome: insights from a 25-year retrospective cohort study",
abstract = "To assess trends in HIV-1 incidence and risk factors for seroconversion among men who have sex with men (MSM) resident in Rome, Italy, a retrospective longitudinal cohort study was conducted over 25 years. Incidence rates and trends were modelled using Poisson regression and risk factors were assessed by multivariate Cox models. Of 1,862 HIV-1-negative individuals, 347 seroconverted during follow-up. HIV-1 incidence rates increased from 5.2/100 persons/year (p/y) in 1986 (95{\%} confidence interval (CI): 2.3–11.5) to 9.2/00 p/y in 1992 (95{\%} CI: 6.4–13.0), decreased to 1.3/100 p/y in 2001 and increased until 2009 (11.7/100 p/y; 95{\%} CI: 7.4–18.6). The risk of HIV-1 seroconversion increased during the study period in younger MSM (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 17.18; 95{\%} CI: 9.74–30.32 in 16–32 year-olds and IRR = 5.09; 95{\%} CI: 2.92–8.87 in 33–41 year-olds) and in those who acquired syphilis (IRR = 7.71; 95{\%} CI: 5.00–11.88). In contrast, the risk of seroconversion decreased among highly educated MSM (IRR = 0.54; 95{\%} CI: 0.35–0.82) and those without Italian citizenship (IRR = 0.45; 95{\%} CI: 0.28–0.71). The HIV epidemic in MSM living in Rome continues to expand. Targeted prevention programmes against sexually transmitted infections to enhance knowledge transfer and behavioural skills are urgently required.",
author = "M. Giuliani and Vescio, {M. F.} and A. Latini and G. Palamara and F. Pimpinelli and Dona, {M. G.} and F. Stivali and F. Carduccelli and F. Ensoli and {Di Carlo}, A. and G. Rezza",
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TY - JOUR

T1 - Continuous increase in HIV-1 incidence after the year 2000 among men who have sex with men in Rome

T2 - insights from a 25-year retrospective cohort study

AU - Giuliani, M.

AU - Vescio, M. F.

AU - Latini, A.

AU - Palamara, G.

AU - Pimpinelli, F.

AU - Dona, M. G.

AU - Stivali, F.

AU - Carduccelli, F.

AU - Ensoli, F.

AU - Di Carlo, A.

AU - Rezza, G.

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - To assess trends in HIV-1 incidence and risk factors for seroconversion among men who have sex with men (MSM) resident in Rome, Italy, a retrospective longitudinal cohort study was conducted over 25 years. Incidence rates and trends were modelled using Poisson regression and risk factors were assessed by multivariate Cox models. Of 1,862 HIV-1-negative individuals, 347 seroconverted during follow-up. HIV-1 incidence rates increased from 5.2/100 persons/year (p/y) in 1986 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.3–11.5) to 9.2/00 p/y in 1992 (95% CI: 6.4–13.0), decreased to 1.3/100 p/y in 2001 and increased until 2009 (11.7/100 p/y; 95% CI: 7.4–18.6). The risk of HIV-1 seroconversion increased during the study period in younger MSM (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 17.18; 95% CI: 9.74–30.32 in 16–32 year-olds and IRR = 5.09; 95% CI: 2.92–8.87 in 33–41 year-olds) and in those who acquired syphilis (IRR = 7.71; 95% CI: 5.00–11.88). In contrast, the risk of seroconversion decreased among highly educated MSM (IRR = 0.54; 95% CI: 0.35–0.82) and those without Italian citizenship (IRR = 0.45; 95% CI: 0.28–0.71). The HIV epidemic in MSM living in Rome continues to expand. Targeted prevention programmes against sexually transmitted infections to enhance knowledge transfer and behavioural skills are urgently required.

AB - To assess trends in HIV-1 incidence and risk factors for seroconversion among men who have sex with men (MSM) resident in Rome, Italy, a retrospective longitudinal cohort study was conducted over 25 years. Incidence rates and trends were modelled using Poisson regression and risk factors were assessed by multivariate Cox models. Of 1,862 HIV-1-negative individuals, 347 seroconverted during follow-up. HIV-1 incidence rates increased from 5.2/100 persons/year (p/y) in 1986 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.3–11.5) to 9.2/00 p/y in 1992 (95% CI: 6.4–13.0), decreased to 1.3/100 p/y in 2001 and increased until 2009 (11.7/100 p/y; 95% CI: 7.4–18.6). The risk of HIV-1 seroconversion increased during the study period in younger MSM (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 17.18; 95% CI: 9.74–30.32 in 16–32 year-olds and IRR = 5.09; 95% CI: 2.92–8.87 in 33–41 year-olds) and in those who acquired syphilis (IRR = 7.71; 95% CI: 5.00–11.88). In contrast, the risk of seroconversion decreased among highly educated MSM (IRR = 0.54; 95% CI: 0.35–0.82) and those without Italian citizenship (IRR = 0.45; 95% CI: 0.28–0.71). The HIV epidemic in MSM living in Rome continues to expand. Targeted prevention programmes against sexually transmitted infections to enhance knowledge transfer and behavioural skills are urgently required.

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SN - 1560-7917

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