Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Universal Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Using a Dynamic Bayesian Methodology: The BEST II Study

Katrin Haeussler, Andrea Marcellusi, Francesco Saverio Mennini, Giampiero Favato, Mauro Picardo, Giorgia Garganese, Marco Bononi, Silvano Costa, Giovanni Scambia, Peter Zweifel, Alessandro Capone, Gianluca Baio

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) plays a role in the development of benign and malign neoplasms in both sexes. The Italian recommendations for HPV vaccines consider only females. The BEST II study (Bayesian modelling to assess the Effectiveness of a vaccination Strategy to prevent HPV-related diseases) evaluates 1) the cost-effectiveness of immunization strategies targeting universal vaccination compared with cervical cancer screening and female-only vaccination and 2) the economic impact of immunization on various HPV-induced diseases. Objective The objective of this study was to evaluate whether female-only vaccination or universal vaccination is the most cost-effective intervention against HPV. Methods We present a dynamic Bayesian Markov model to investigate transmission dynamics in cohorts of females and males in a follow-up period of 55 years. We assumed that quadrivalent vaccination (against HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11) is available for 12-year-old individuals. The model accounts for the progression of subjects across HPV-induced health states (cervical, vaginal, vulvar, anal, penile, and head/neck cancer as well as anogenital warts). The sexual mixing is modeled on the basis of age-, sex-, and sexual behavioral-specific matrices to obtain the dynamic force of infection. Results In comparison to cervical cancer screening, universal vaccination results in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €1,500. When universal immunization is compared with female-only vaccination, it is cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €11,600. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows a relatively large amount of parameter uncertainty, which interestingly has, however, no substantial impact on the decision-making process. The intervention being assessed seems to be associated with an attractive cost-effectiveness profile. Conclusions Universal HPV vaccination is found to be a cost-effective choice when compared with either cervical cancer screening or female-only vaccination within the Italian context.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)956-968
Number of pages13
JournalValue in Health
Issue number8
Publication statusPublished - Dec 1 2015


  • cost-effectiveness analysis
  • dynamic Bayesian model
  • herd immunity
  • HPV
  • vaccination programs

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Health Policy
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health


Dive into the research topics of 'Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Universal Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Using a Dynamic Bayesian Methodology: The BEST II Study'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this