COVID-19 and Italy: what next?

Andrea Remuzzi, Giuseppe Remuzzi

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

Abstract

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has already taken on pandemic proportions, affecting over 100 countries in a matter of weeks. A global response to prepare health systems worldwide is imperative. Although containment measures in China have reduced new cases by more than 90%, this reduction is not the case elsewhere, and Italy has been particularly affected. There is now grave concern regarding the Italian national health system's capacity to effectively respond to the needs of patients who are infected and require intensive care for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. The percentage of patients in intensive care reported daily in Italy between March 1 and March 11, 2020, has consistently been between 9% and 11% of patients who are actively infected. The number of patients infected since Feb 21 in Italy closely follows an exponential trend. If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity; up to 4000 hospital beds will be needed by mid-April, 2020. Our analysis might help political leaders and health authorities to allocate enough resources, including personnel, beds, and intensive care facilities, to manage the situation in the next few days and weeks. If the Italian outbreak follows a similar trend as in Hubei province, China, the number of newly infected patients could start to decrease within 3-4 days, departing from the exponential trend. However, this cannot currently be predicted because of differences between social distancing measures and the capacity to quickly build dedicated facilities in China.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1225-1228
Number of pages4
JournalLancet (London, England)
Volume395
Issue number10231
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 11 2020

Keywords

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Betacoronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology
  • Female
  • Global Health
  • Health Policy/trends
  • Hospital Bed Capacity/statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Intensive Care Units/statistics & numerical data
  • Italy/epidemiology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Biological
  • Pandemics
  • Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology
  • Respiration, Artificial/statistics & numerical data
  • SARS-CoV-2

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'COVID-19 and Italy: what next?'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this