Day-to-day temperature variability trends in 160- to 275-year-long European instrumental records

A. Moberg, P. D. Jones, M. Barriendos, H. Bergström, D. Camuffo, C. Cocheo, T. D. Davies, G. Demarée, J. Martin-Vide, M. Maugeri, R. Rodriguez, T. Verhoeve

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Day-to-day temperature variability is investigated in eight European series of daily mean temperatures beginning between 1722 and 1833. Eight statistical measures of day-to-day temperature variability are compared. The intramonthly standard deviation of daily temperature anomalies is found to be a good measure. The absolute change in temperature anomaly from one day to the next is sensitive to changes in observational procedures and is suggested as a diagnostic tool for identification of inhomogeneities in instrumental temperature series. Because many changes in observational procedures have taken place, quantitative estimates of trends in day-to-day variability, based on all series, could only be calculated for 1880-1998. A trend analysis over this period indicates an increase by 5% in southwest Europe, 0 to -5% change in the northwest, and a decrease by 5 to 10% in northeast Europe. On a longer time perspective, day-to-day temperature variability in winter, spring, and autumn in northern Europe has decreased over the last 200-250 years. The frequency of extremely cold winter days in northern Europe was lower in the twentieth century than in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Day-to-day temperature variability in winter in northern Europe was negatively correlated with a North Atlantic Oscillation index in the period 1826-1997, but some other factor must also have contributed to the long-term variability decrease. More long daily temperature series, and development of homogenization methods for such data, are needed for an improved knowledge of long-term changes in day-to-day temperature variability.

Original languageEnglish
Article number2000JD900300
Pages (from-to)22849-22868
Number of pages20
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Volume105
Issue numberD18
Publication statusPublished - Sep 27 2000

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geochemistry and Petrology
  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Space and Planetary Science
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Astronomy and Astrophysics
  • Oceanography

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