Development and External Validation of an Extended Repeat Biopsy Nomogram

Felix K H Chun, Alberto Briganti, Markus Graefen, Christopher Porter, Francesco Montorsi, Alexander Haese, Vincenzo Scattoni, Lester Borden, Thomas Steuber, Andrea Salonia, Thorsten Schlomm, Kalyan Latchemsetty, Jochen Walz, Jason Kim, Christian Eichelberg, Eike Currlin, Sascha A. Ahyai, Andreas Erbersdobler, Luc Valiquette, Hans HeinzerPatrizio Rigatti, Hartwig Huland, Pierre I. Karakiewicz

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Purpose: We hypothesized that the outcome of repeat biopsy could be accurately predicted. We tested this hypothesis in a contemporary cohort from 3 centers. Materials and Methods: The principal cohort of 1,082 men from Hamburg, Germany was used for nomogram development as well as for internal 200 bootstrap validation in 721 and external validation in 361. Two additional external validation cohorts, including 87 men from Milan, Italy and 142 from Seattle, Washington, were also used. Predictors of prostate cancer on repeat biopsy were patient age, digital rectal examination, prostate specific antigen, percent free prostate specific antigen, number of previous negative biopsy sessions and sampling density. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to develop the nomograms. Results: The mean number of previous negative biopsies was 1.5 (range 1 to 6) and the mean number of cores at final repeat biopsy was 11.1 (range 10 to 24). Of the men 370 (30.2%) had prostate cancer. On multivariate analyses all predictors were statistically significant (p ≤0.028). After internal validation the nomogram was 76% accurate. External validation showed 74% (Hamburg), 78% (Milan) and 68% (Seattle) accuracy. Conclusions: Relative to the previous nomograms (10 predictors or 71% accuracy) our tool relies on fewer variables (6) and shows superior accuracy in European men. Accuracy in American men is substantially lower. Racial, clinical and biochemical differences may explain the observed discrepancy in predictive accuracy.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)510-515
Number of pages6
JournalJournal of Urology
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2007


  • biopsy
  • nomograms
  • prostate
  • prostatic neoplasms

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Urology


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