Development and validation of a nomogram based on clinical factors and standard laboratory tests for prediction of clinically significant liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C virus infection

Elisabetta Sagrini, Ilaria Ardoino, Giuseppe Marano, Alice Gianstefani, Alessandra Orlandini, Giada Sebastiani, Gabriele Donati, Alessandro Cucchetti, Guido Pelosi, Carlo Ferrari, Alfredo Alberti, Elia Biganzoli, Fabio Piscaglia, Luigi Bolondi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Staging liver fibrosis in chronic viral hepatitis C (HCV) patients is essential for prompting surveillance and treatment. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram, on the basis of simple clinical and laboratory variables, to predict three clinically significant stages of fibrosis (nil-mild, moderate, advanced/cirrhosis), using histology as reference, and to compare its performance with that of FibroTest, a widely used noninvasive fibrosis score. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Nomograms are graphical representations of a mathematical formula, used as predictive tools. The study retrospectively recruited 406 HCV patients undergoing liver biopsy. Nomogram was developed in a training set of 252 patients and tested in a validation set of 154 patients. Histology was staged according to the Metavir system. Fibrosis stages were subgrouped as follows: advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis (F3/F4, 24%), nil-mild (F0/F1, 36%), and moderate (F2, 40%). Age at biopsy, aspartate aminotransferase, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, albumin, platelet count, and prothrombin activity formed the basis for the so-called Fibro-Nomogram, which, in one graphical representation, estimates probability for different stages of fibrosis. RESULTS: Areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves for advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis were similar for training (0.86) and validation sets (0.87). For nil-mild fibrosis, area under the receiver-operating characteristics were 0.81 and 0.79. Compared with FibroTest, Fibro-Nomogram performed slightly better at predicting severe fibrosis (F3/F4) with positive likelihood ratio (LR+) 5.07 (95% confidence interval 3.08-8.37) versus LR+ 3.82 (95% confidence interval 2.56-5.71) for FibroTest. For nil-mild fibrosis, the two tests showed limited but comparable performances. CONCLUSION: In HCV patients, Fibro-Nomogram, an inexpensive and readily available predictive tool, could enable clinicians to interpret patients' profile, concurrently stratifying patients into three clinically relevant probability categories with good overall performance.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1385-1395
Number of pages11
JournalEuropean Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology
Volume25
Issue number12
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2013

Keywords

  • chronic viral hepatitis C
  • clinical decision making
  • liver fibrosis prediction
  • nomogram

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Gastroenterology
  • Hepatology

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