Development of a novel nomogram-based online tool to predict axillary status after neoadjuvant chemotherapy in cN+ breast cancer: A multicentre study on 1,950 patients

Fabio Corsi, Sara Albasini, Luca Sorrentino, Giulia Armatura, Claudia Carolla, Corrado Chiappa, Francesca Combi, Annalisa Curcio, Angelica Della Valle, Guglielmo Ferrari, Maria Luisa Gasparri, Oreste Gentilini, Matteo Ghilli, Chiara Listorti, Stefano Mancini, Peter Marinello, Francesco Meani, Simone Mele, Anna Pertusati, Manuela RoncellaFrancesca Rovera, Adele Sgarella, Giovanni Tazzioli, Daniela Tognali, Secondo Folli

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Background: Type of axillary surgery in breast cancer (BC) patients who convert from cN + to ycN0 after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is still debated. The aim of the present study was to develop and validate a preoperative predictive nomogram to select those patients with a low risk of residual axillary disease after NAC, in whom axillary surgery could be minimized. Patients and methods: 1950 clinically node-positive BC patients from 11 Breast Units, treated by NAC and subsequent surgery, were included from 2005 to 2020. Patients were divided in two groups: those who achieved nodal pCR vs. those with residual nodal disease after NAC. The cohort was divided into training and validation set with a geographic separation criterion. The outcome was to identify independent predictors of axillary pathologic complete response (pCR). Results: Independent predictive factors associated to nodal pCR were axillary clinical complete response (cCR) after NAC (OR 3.11, p < 0.0001), ER-/HER2+ (OR 3.26, p < 0.0001) or ER+/HER2+ (OR 2.26, p = 0.0002) or ER-/HER2- (OR 1.89, p = 0.009) BC, breast cCR (OR 2.48, p < 0.0001), Ki67 > 14% (OR 0.52, p = 0.0005), and tumor grading G2 (OR 0.35, p = 0.002) or G3 (OR 0.29, p = 0.0003). The nomogram showed a sensitivity of 71% and a specificity of 73% (AUC 0.77, 95%CI 0.75–0.80). After external validation the accuracy of the nomogram was confirmed. Conclusion: The accuracy makes this freely-available, nomogram-based online tool useful to predict nodal pCR after NAC, translating the concept of tailored axillary surgery also in this setting of patients.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)131-137
Number of pages7
JournalBreast
Volume60
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2021

Keywords

  • Axillary dissection
  • Axillary surgery
  • Breast cancer
  • Neoadjuvant chemotherapy
  • Sentinel node biopsy

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Surgery
  • Oncology
  • Cancer Research

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