Estimating Survival Probabilities of Advanced Gastric Cancer Patients in the Second-Line Setting: The Gastric Life Nomogram

Filippo Pietrantonio, Francesco Barretta, Valentina Fanotto, Se Hoon Park, Federica Morano, Giovanni Fucà, Monica Niger, Michele Prisciandaro, Nicola Silvestris, Francesca Bergamo, Lorenzo Fornaro, Roberto Bordonaro, Lorenza Rimassa, Daniele Santini, Gianluca Tomasello, Lorenzo Antonuzzo, Silvia Noventa, Antonio Avallone, Francesco Leone, Luca Faloppi & 7 others Samantha Di Donato, Filippo de Braud, Jeeyun Lee, Ferdinando De Vita, Maria Di Bartolomeo, Rosalba Miceli, Giuseppe Aprile

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: We built and externally validated a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) probability of advanced gastric cancer patients receiving second-line treatment.METHODS: The nomogram was developed on a set of 320 Italian patients and validated on two independent sets (295 Italian and 172 Korean patients). Putative prognostic variables were selected using a random forest model and included in the multivariable Cox model. The nomogram's performance was evaluated by calibration plot and C index.RESULTS: ECOG performance status, neutrophils to lymphocytes ratio, and peritoneal involvement were selected and included into the multivariable model. The C index was 0.72 (95% CI 0.68-0.75) in the development set, 0.69 (95% CI 0.65-0.73) in the Italian validation set, but only 0.57 (95% CI 0.52-0.62) in the Korean set. While Italian calibrations were quite good, the Korean one was poor. Regarding 6-month OS predictions, calibration was best in both Caucasian cohorts and worst the in Asian one.CONCLUSIONS: Our nomogram may be a useful tool to predict 3- or 6-month OS in Caucasian gastric cancer patients eligible for second-line therapy. Based on three easy-to-collect variables, the Gastric Life nomogram may help clinicians improve patient selection for second-line treatments and assist in clinical trial enrollment.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)344-352
Number of pages9
JournalOncology
Volume95
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018

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Nomograms
Stomach Neoplasms
Stomach
Survival
Calibration
Proportional Hazards Models
Patient Selection
Neutrophils
Therapeutics
Clinical Trials
Lymphocytes

Keywords

  • Aged, Cohort Studies, Female, Humans, Italy/epidemiology, Male, Middle Aged, Nomograms, Proportional Hazards Models, Republic of Korea/epidemiology, Stomach Neoplasms/mortality

Cite this

Estimating Survival Probabilities of Advanced Gastric Cancer Patients in the Second-Line Setting: The Gastric Life Nomogram. / Pietrantonio, Filippo; Barretta, Francesco; Fanotto, Valentina; Park, Se Hoon; Morano, Federica; Fucà, Giovanni; Niger, Monica; Prisciandaro, Michele; Silvestris, Nicola; Bergamo, Francesca; Fornaro, Lorenzo; Bordonaro, Roberto; Rimassa, Lorenza; Santini, Daniele; Tomasello, Gianluca; Antonuzzo, Lorenzo; Noventa, Silvia; Avallone, Antonio; Leone, Francesco; Faloppi, Luca; Di Donato, Samantha; de Braud, Filippo; Lee, Jeeyun; De Vita, Ferdinando; Di Bartolomeo, Maria; Miceli, Rosalba; Aprile, Giuseppe.

In: Oncology, Vol. 95, No. 6, 2018, p. 344-352.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Pietrantonio, F, Barretta, F, Fanotto, V, Park, SH, Morano, F, Fucà, G, Niger, M, Prisciandaro, M, Silvestris, N, Bergamo, F, Fornaro, L, Bordonaro, R, Rimassa, L, Santini, D, Tomasello, G, Antonuzzo, L, Noventa, S, Avallone, A, Leone, F, Faloppi, L, Di Donato, S, de Braud, F, Lee, J, De Vita, F, Di Bartolomeo, M, Miceli, R & Aprile, G 2018, 'Estimating Survival Probabilities of Advanced Gastric Cancer Patients in the Second-Line Setting: The Gastric Life Nomogram', Oncology, vol. 95, no. 6, pp. 344-352. https://doi.org/10.1159/000491753
Pietrantonio, Filippo ; Barretta, Francesco ; Fanotto, Valentina ; Park, Se Hoon ; Morano, Federica ; Fucà, Giovanni ; Niger, Monica ; Prisciandaro, Michele ; Silvestris, Nicola ; Bergamo, Francesca ; Fornaro, Lorenzo ; Bordonaro, Roberto ; Rimassa, Lorenza ; Santini, Daniele ; Tomasello, Gianluca ; Antonuzzo, Lorenzo ; Noventa, Silvia ; Avallone, Antonio ; Leone, Francesco ; Faloppi, Luca ; Di Donato, Samantha ; de Braud, Filippo ; Lee, Jeeyun ; De Vita, Ferdinando ; Di Bartolomeo, Maria ; Miceli, Rosalba ; Aprile, Giuseppe. / Estimating Survival Probabilities of Advanced Gastric Cancer Patients in the Second-Line Setting: The Gastric Life Nomogram. In: Oncology. 2018 ; Vol. 95, No. 6. pp. 344-352.
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TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimating Survival Probabilities of Advanced Gastric Cancer Patients in the Second-Line Setting: The Gastric Life Nomogram

AU - Pietrantonio, Filippo

AU - Barretta, Francesco

AU - Fanotto, Valentina

AU - Park, Se Hoon

AU - Morano, Federica

AU - Fucà, Giovanni

AU - Niger, Monica

AU - Prisciandaro, Michele

AU - Silvestris, Nicola

AU - Bergamo, Francesca

AU - Fornaro, Lorenzo

AU - Bordonaro, Roberto

AU - Rimassa, Lorenza

AU - Santini, Daniele

AU - Tomasello, Gianluca

AU - Antonuzzo, Lorenzo

AU - Noventa, Silvia

AU - Avallone, Antonio

AU - Leone, Francesco

AU - Faloppi, Luca

AU - Di Donato, Samantha

AU - de Braud, Filippo

AU - Lee, Jeeyun

AU - De Vita, Ferdinando

AU - Di Bartolomeo, Maria

AU - Miceli, Rosalba

AU - Aprile, Giuseppe

N1 - © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - OBJECTIVE: We built and externally validated a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) probability of advanced gastric cancer patients receiving second-line treatment.METHODS: The nomogram was developed on a set of 320 Italian patients and validated on two independent sets (295 Italian and 172 Korean patients). Putative prognostic variables were selected using a random forest model and included in the multivariable Cox model. The nomogram's performance was evaluated by calibration plot and C index.RESULTS: ECOG performance status, neutrophils to lymphocytes ratio, and peritoneal involvement were selected and included into the multivariable model. The C index was 0.72 (95% CI 0.68-0.75) in the development set, 0.69 (95% CI 0.65-0.73) in the Italian validation set, but only 0.57 (95% CI 0.52-0.62) in the Korean set. While Italian calibrations were quite good, the Korean one was poor. Regarding 6-month OS predictions, calibration was best in both Caucasian cohorts and worst the in Asian one.CONCLUSIONS: Our nomogram may be a useful tool to predict 3- or 6-month OS in Caucasian gastric cancer patients eligible for second-line therapy. Based on three easy-to-collect variables, the Gastric Life nomogram may help clinicians improve patient selection for second-line treatments and assist in clinical trial enrollment.

AB - OBJECTIVE: We built and externally validated a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) probability of advanced gastric cancer patients receiving second-line treatment.METHODS: The nomogram was developed on a set of 320 Italian patients and validated on two independent sets (295 Italian and 172 Korean patients). Putative prognostic variables were selected using a random forest model and included in the multivariable Cox model. The nomogram's performance was evaluated by calibration plot and C index.RESULTS: ECOG performance status, neutrophils to lymphocytes ratio, and peritoneal involvement were selected and included into the multivariable model. The C index was 0.72 (95% CI 0.68-0.75) in the development set, 0.69 (95% CI 0.65-0.73) in the Italian validation set, but only 0.57 (95% CI 0.52-0.62) in the Korean set. While Italian calibrations were quite good, the Korean one was poor. Regarding 6-month OS predictions, calibration was best in both Caucasian cohorts and worst the in Asian one.CONCLUSIONS: Our nomogram may be a useful tool to predict 3- or 6-month OS in Caucasian gastric cancer patients eligible for second-line therapy. Based on three easy-to-collect variables, the Gastric Life nomogram may help clinicians improve patient selection for second-line treatments and assist in clinical trial enrollment.

KW - Aged, Cohort Studies, Female, Humans, Italy/epidemiology, Male, Middle Aged, Nomograms, Proportional Hazards Models, Republic of Korea/epidemiology, Stomach Neoplasms/mortality

U2 - 10.1159/000491753

DO - 10.1159/000491753

M3 - Article

VL - 95

SP - 344

EP - 352

JO - Oncology

JF - Oncology

SN - 0030-2414

IS - 6

ER -