European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2012

M. Malvezzi, P. Bertuccio, F. Levi, C. La Vecchia, E. Negri

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Background: Estimating current cancer mortality figures is important for defining priorities for prevention and treatment. Materials and methods: Using logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint models on mortality and population data from the World Health Organization database, we estimated numbers of deaths and age-standardized rates in 2012 from all cancers and selected cancer sites for the whole European Union (EU) and its six more populated countries. Results: Cancer deaths in the EU in 2012 are estimated to be 1 283 101 (717 398 men and 565 703 women) corresponding to standardized overall cancer death rates of 139/100 000 men and 85/100 000 women. The fall from 2007 was 10% in men and 7% in women. In men, declines are predicted for stomach (-20%), leukemias (-11%), lung and prostate (-10%) and colorectal (-7%) cancers, and for stomach (-23%), leukemias (-12%), uterus and colorectum (-11%) and breast (-9%) in women. Almost stable rates are expected for pancreatic cancer (+2-3%) and increases for female lung cancer (+7%). Younger women show the greatest falls in breast cancer mortality rates in the EU (-17%), and declines are expected in all individual countries, except Poland. Conclusion: Apart for lung cancer in women and pancreatic cancer, continuing falls are expected in mortality from major cancers in the EU.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1044-1052
Number of pages9
JournalAnnals of Oncology
Volume23
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2012

Keywords

  • Breast cancer
  • Cancer
  • Europe
  • Mortality
  • Projections
  • Time trends

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology
  • Hematology

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