European cardiovascular mortality over the last three decades: Evaluation of time trends, forecasts for 2016

M. Gaeta, F. Campanella, L. Gentile, G.M. Schifino, L. Capasso, F. Bandera, G. Banfi, M. Arpesella, C. Ricci

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background. The circulatory diseases, in particular ischemic heart diseases and stroke, represent the main causes of death worldwide both in high income and in middle and low income countries. Our aim is to provide a comprehensive report to depict the circulatory disease mortality in Europe over the last 30 years and to address the sources of heterogeneity among different countries. Methods. Our study was performed using the WHO statistical information system - mortality database - and was restricted to the 28 countries belonging to the European Union (EU-28). We evaluated gender and age time series of all circulatory disease mortality, ischemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, pulmonary and other circulatory diseases and than we performed forecast for 2016. Mortality heterogeneity was evaluated by countries using the Cochrane Q statistic and the I-squared index. Results. Between 1985 and 2011 SDR for deaths attributable to all circulatory system diseases decreased from 440.9 to 212.0 x 100,000 in EU-28 and a clear uniform reduction was observed. Heterogeneity among countries was found to be consistent, therefore different analysis were carried out considering geographical area. Conclusions. We forecast a reduction in European cardiovascular mortality. Heterogeneity among countries could only in part be explained by both geographical and health expenditure factors.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)206-217
Number of pages12
JournalAnnali di Igiene
Volume29
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017

Fingerprint

Mortality
Myocardial Ischemia
Cerebrovascular Disorders
European Union
Health Expenditures
Cardiovascular System
Information Systems
Cause of Death
Stroke
Databases
Lung

Keywords

  • Cardiovascular mortality
  • Europe
  • Mortality forecast
  • cardiovascular disease
  • epidemiology
  • female
  • forecasting
  • human
  • male
  • mortality
  • time factor
  • trends
  • Cardiovascular Diseases
  • Female
  • Forecasting
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Mortality
  • Time Factors

Cite this

European cardiovascular mortality over the last three decades: Evaluation of time trends, forecasts for 2016. / Gaeta, M.; Campanella, F.; Gentile, L.; Schifino, G.M.; Capasso, L.; Bandera, F.; Banfi, G.; Arpesella, M.; Ricci, C.

In: Annali di Igiene, Vol. 29, No. 3, 2017, p. 206-217.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Gaeta, M. ; Campanella, F. ; Gentile, L. ; Schifino, G.M. ; Capasso, L. ; Bandera, F. ; Banfi, G. ; Arpesella, M. ; Ricci, C. / European cardiovascular mortality over the last three decades: Evaluation of time trends, forecasts for 2016. In: Annali di Igiene. 2017 ; Vol. 29, No. 3. pp. 206-217.
@article{ef0f7e6636b4476c97c431d81d381c66,
title = "European cardiovascular mortality over the last three decades: Evaluation of time trends, forecasts for 2016",
abstract = "Background. The circulatory diseases, in particular ischemic heart diseases and stroke, represent the main causes of death worldwide both in high income and in middle and low income countries. Our aim is to provide a comprehensive report to depict the circulatory disease mortality in Europe over the last 30 years and to address the sources of heterogeneity among different countries. Methods. Our study was performed using the WHO statistical information system - mortality database - and was restricted to the 28 countries belonging to the European Union (EU-28). We evaluated gender and age time series of all circulatory disease mortality, ischemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, pulmonary and other circulatory diseases and than we performed forecast for 2016. Mortality heterogeneity was evaluated by countries using the Cochrane Q statistic and the I-squared index. Results. Between 1985 and 2011 SDR for deaths attributable to all circulatory system diseases decreased from 440.9 to 212.0 x 100,000 in EU-28 and a clear uniform reduction was observed. Heterogeneity among countries was found to be consistent, therefore different analysis were carried out considering geographical area. Conclusions. We forecast a reduction in European cardiovascular mortality. Heterogeneity among countries could only in part be explained by both geographical and health expenditure factors.",
keywords = "Cardiovascular mortality, Europe, Mortality forecast, cardiovascular disease, epidemiology, female, forecasting, human, male, mortality, time factor, trends, Cardiovascular Diseases, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Male, Mortality, Time Factors",
author = "M. Gaeta and F. Campanella and L. Gentile and G.M. Schifino and L. Capasso and F. Bandera and G. Banfi and M. Arpesella and C. Ricci",
note = "Cited By :2 Export Date: 2 March 2018 Correspondence Address: Campanella, F.; Unit of Hygiene, Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, Via Forlanini 2, Italy; email: francesca.campanella@live.it References: Mathers, C.D., Loncar, D., Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030 (2006) PLoS Med, 3 (11); Levi, F., Chatenoud, L., Bertuccio, P., Lucchini, F., Negri, E., La Vecchia, C., Mortality from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Europe and other areas of the world: an update (2009) Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil, 16, pp. 333-350; Nichols, M., Townsend, N., Scarborough, P., European Cardiovascular Disease Statistics 2012 (2012), Brussels: European Heart Network, Sophia Antipolis: European Society of Cardiology; (2011), Geneva: World Health Organization; (2011) Global status report on noncommunicable diseases 2010, , Geneva: World Health Organization; Ezzati, M., Obermeyer, Z., Tzoulaki, I., Mayosi, B.M., Elliott, P., Leon, D.A., Contributions of risk factors and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends (2015) Nat Rev Cardiol, 12 (9), pp. 508-530; Rayner, M., Allender, S., Scarborough, P., Cardiovascular disease in Europe (2009) Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil, 16, pp. S43-S47; http://data.euro.who.int/hfamdb/, Copenhagen, Denmark: 2016 [Last accessed: 2017, Feb 2]; Treaty of Lisbon Amending the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty Establishing the European Community http://www.refworld.org/docid/476258d32.html, 13 December 2007, 2007/C 306/01 [Last accessed: 2017, Feb 2]; Kim, H.J., Fay, M.P., Feuer, E.J., Midthune, D.N., Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates (2000) Stat Med, 19, pp. 335-351; Akaike, H., Prediction and entropy (1985) A Celebration of Statistics, pp. 1-24. , In: Atkinson AC, Fienberg SE. Springer; McQuarrie, A.D.R., Tsai, C.L., Regression and Time Series Model Selection (1998), Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Co. Re. Ltd; Knapp, G., Hartung, J., Improved tests for a random-effects meta-regression with a single covariate (2003) Stat Med, 22 (17), pp. 2693-2710; McDermott, M.M., The international pandemic of chronic cardiovascular disease (2007) JAMA, 297 (11), pp. 1253-1255; Danaei, G., Finucane, M.M., Lu, Y., National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 countryyears and 2.7 million participants (2011) Lancet, 378 (9785), pp. 31-40; Keys, A., Menotti, A., Karvonen, M.J., The diet and 15-year death rate in the Seven Countries Study (1986) Am J Epidemiol, 124, pp. 903-915; MacMahon, S., Peto, R., Cutler, J., Blood pressure, stroke, and coronary heart diseas Part 1, prolonged differences in blood pressure: prospective observational studies corrected for the regression dilution bias (1990) Lancet, 335 (8692), pp. 765-774; Zahra, A., Lee, E.W., Sun, L.Y., Park, J.H., Cardiovascular disease and diabetes mortality, and their relation to socio-economical, environmental, and health behavioural factors in worldwide view (2015) Public Health, 129 (4), pp. 385-395; Adult and youth literacy. National, regional and global trends, 1985-2015 (2013), Unesco Institute of Statistics. Montreal; Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs (2004), 2586th Council Meeting. Luxembourg 1-2 June; European collaborative trial of multifactorial prevention of coronary heart disease: final report on the 6-year results (1986) Lancet, 1 (8486), pp. 869-872; Mendis, S., Puska, P., Norrving, B., Global Atlas on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention and Control (2011), Geneva: World Health Organization; Farzadfar, F., Finucane, M.M., Danaei, G., National, regional, and global trends in serum total cholesterol since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 321 country-years and 3.0 million participants (2011) Lancet, 377 (9765), pp. 578-586; Danaei, G., Finucane, M.M., Lin, J.K., National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5.4 million participants (2011) Lancet, 377 (9765), pp. 568-577; Finucane, M.M., Stevens, G.A., Cowan, M.J., National, regional, and global trends in bodymass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9.1 million participants (2011) Lancet, 377 (9765), pp. 557-567; O'Flaherty, M., Bishop, J., Redpath, A., Coronary heart disease mortality among young adults in Scotland in relation to social inequalities: time trend study (2009) BMJ, 339; Lee, C.W., Hong, M.K., Lee, J.H., Determinants and prognostic significance of spontaneous coronary recanalization in acute myocardial infarction (2001) Am J Cardiol, 87 (8), pp. 951-954 and A3; Stone, G.W., Cox, D., Garcia, E., Normal flow (TIMI-3) before mechanical reperfusion therapy is an independent determinant of survival in acute myocardial infarction: analysis from the primary angioplasty in myocardial infarction trials (2001) Circulation, 104 (6), pp. 636-641; Cura, F.A., L'Allier, P.L., Kapadia, S.R., Predictors and prognosis of suboptimal coronary blood flow after primary coronary angioplasty in patients with acute myocardial infarction (2001) Am J Cardiol, 88 (2), pp. 124-128; Stone, G.W., Grines, C.L., Cox, D.A., Comparison of angioplasty with stenting, with or without abciximab, in acute myocardial infarction (2002) N Engl J Med, 346 (13), pp. 957-966; Stone, G.W., Witzenbichler, B., Guagliumi, G., Bivalirudin during primary PCI in acute myocardial infarction (2008) N Engl J Med, 358 (21), pp. 2218-2230; Cutlip, D.E., Windecker, S., Mehran, R., Clinical end points in coronary stent trials: a case for standardized definitions (2007) Circulation, (17), pp. 2344-2351; The Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) trial (1985) Phase I findings. N Engl J Med, 312 (14), pp. 932-936",
year = "2017",
doi = "10.7416/ai.2017.2148",
language = "English",
volume = "29",
pages = "206--217",
journal = "Annali di igiene : medicina preventiva e di comunita",
issn = "1120-9135",
publisher = "Societa Editrice Universo",
number = "3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - European cardiovascular mortality over the last three decades: Evaluation of time trends, forecasts for 2016

AU - Gaeta, M.

AU - Campanella, F.

AU - Gentile, L.

AU - Schifino, G.M.

AU - Capasso, L.

AU - Bandera, F.

AU - Banfi, G.

AU - Arpesella, M.

AU - Ricci, C.

N1 - Cited By :2 Export Date: 2 March 2018 Correspondence Address: Campanella, F.; Unit of Hygiene, Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, Via Forlanini 2, Italy; email: francesca.campanella@live.it References: Mathers, C.D., Loncar, D., Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030 (2006) PLoS Med, 3 (11); Levi, F., Chatenoud, L., Bertuccio, P., Lucchini, F., Negri, E., La Vecchia, C., Mortality from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Europe and other areas of the world: an update (2009) Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil, 16, pp. 333-350; Nichols, M., Townsend, N., Scarborough, P., European Cardiovascular Disease Statistics 2012 (2012), Brussels: European Heart Network, Sophia Antipolis: European Society of Cardiology; (2011), Geneva: World Health Organization; (2011) Global status report on noncommunicable diseases 2010, , Geneva: World Health Organization; Ezzati, M., Obermeyer, Z., Tzoulaki, I., Mayosi, B.M., Elliott, P., Leon, D.A., Contributions of risk factors and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends (2015) Nat Rev Cardiol, 12 (9), pp. 508-530; Rayner, M., Allender, S., Scarborough, P., Cardiovascular disease in Europe (2009) Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil, 16, pp. S43-S47; http://data.euro.who.int/hfamdb/, Copenhagen, Denmark: 2016 [Last accessed: 2017, Feb 2]; Treaty of Lisbon Amending the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty Establishing the European Community http://www.refworld.org/docid/476258d32.html, 13 December 2007, 2007/C 306/01 [Last accessed: 2017, Feb 2]; Kim, H.J., Fay, M.P., Feuer, E.J., Midthune, D.N., Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates (2000) Stat Med, 19, pp. 335-351; Akaike, H., Prediction and entropy (1985) A Celebration of Statistics, pp. 1-24. , In: Atkinson AC, Fienberg SE. Springer; McQuarrie, A.D.R., Tsai, C.L., Regression and Time Series Model Selection (1998), Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Co. Re. Ltd; Knapp, G., Hartung, J., Improved tests for a random-effects meta-regression with a single covariate (2003) Stat Med, 22 (17), pp. 2693-2710; McDermott, M.M., The international pandemic of chronic cardiovascular disease (2007) JAMA, 297 (11), pp. 1253-1255; Danaei, G., Finucane, M.M., Lu, Y., National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 countryyears and 2.7 million participants (2011) Lancet, 378 (9785), pp. 31-40; Keys, A., Menotti, A., Karvonen, M.J., The diet and 15-year death rate in the Seven Countries Study (1986) Am J Epidemiol, 124, pp. 903-915; MacMahon, S., Peto, R., Cutler, J., Blood pressure, stroke, and coronary heart diseas Part 1, prolonged differences in blood pressure: prospective observational studies corrected for the regression dilution bias (1990) Lancet, 335 (8692), pp. 765-774; Zahra, A., Lee, E.W., Sun, L.Y., Park, J.H., Cardiovascular disease and diabetes mortality, and their relation to socio-economical, environmental, and health behavioural factors in worldwide view (2015) Public Health, 129 (4), pp. 385-395; Adult and youth literacy. National, regional and global trends, 1985-2015 (2013), Unesco Institute of Statistics. Montreal; Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs (2004), 2586th Council Meeting. Luxembourg 1-2 June; European collaborative trial of multifactorial prevention of coronary heart disease: final report on the 6-year results (1986) Lancet, 1 (8486), pp. 869-872; Mendis, S., Puska, P., Norrving, B., Global Atlas on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention and Control (2011), Geneva: World Health Organization; Farzadfar, F., Finucane, M.M., Danaei, G., National, regional, and global trends in serum total cholesterol since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 321 country-years and 3.0 million participants (2011) Lancet, 377 (9765), pp. 578-586; Danaei, G., Finucane, M.M., Lin, J.K., National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5.4 million participants (2011) Lancet, 377 (9765), pp. 568-577; Finucane, M.M., Stevens, G.A., Cowan, M.J., National, regional, and global trends in bodymass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9.1 million participants (2011) Lancet, 377 (9765), pp. 557-567; O'Flaherty, M., Bishop, J., Redpath, A., Coronary heart disease mortality among young adults in Scotland in relation to social inequalities: time trend study (2009) BMJ, 339; Lee, C.W., Hong, M.K., Lee, J.H., Determinants and prognostic significance of spontaneous coronary recanalization in acute myocardial infarction (2001) Am J Cardiol, 87 (8), pp. 951-954 and A3; Stone, G.W., Cox, D., Garcia, E., Normal flow (TIMI-3) before mechanical reperfusion therapy is an independent determinant of survival in acute myocardial infarction: analysis from the primary angioplasty in myocardial infarction trials (2001) Circulation, 104 (6), pp. 636-641; Cura, F.A., L'Allier, P.L., Kapadia, S.R., Predictors and prognosis of suboptimal coronary blood flow after primary coronary angioplasty in patients with acute myocardial infarction (2001) Am J Cardiol, 88 (2), pp. 124-128; Stone, G.W., Grines, C.L., Cox, D.A., Comparison of angioplasty with stenting, with or without abciximab, in acute myocardial infarction (2002) N Engl J Med, 346 (13), pp. 957-966; Stone, G.W., Witzenbichler, B., Guagliumi, G., Bivalirudin during primary PCI in acute myocardial infarction (2008) N Engl J Med, 358 (21), pp. 2218-2230; Cutlip, D.E., Windecker, S., Mehran, R., Clinical end points in coronary stent trials: a case for standardized definitions (2007) Circulation, (17), pp. 2344-2351; The Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) trial (1985) Phase I findings. N Engl J Med, 312 (14), pp. 932-936

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - Background. The circulatory diseases, in particular ischemic heart diseases and stroke, represent the main causes of death worldwide both in high income and in middle and low income countries. Our aim is to provide a comprehensive report to depict the circulatory disease mortality in Europe over the last 30 years and to address the sources of heterogeneity among different countries. Methods. Our study was performed using the WHO statistical information system - mortality database - and was restricted to the 28 countries belonging to the European Union (EU-28). We evaluated gender and age time series of all circulatory disease mortality, ischemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, pulmonary and other circulatory diseases and than we performed forecast for 2016. Mortality heterogeneity was evaluated by countries using the Cochrane Q statistic and the I-squared index. Results. Between 1985 and 2011 SDR for deaths attributable to all circulatory system diseases decreased from 440.9 to 212.0 x 100,000 in EU-28 and a clear uniform reduction was observed. Heterogeneity among countries was found to be consistent, therefore different analysis were carried out considering geographical area. Conclusions. We forecast a reduction in European cardiovascular mortality. Heterogeneity among countries could only in part be explained by both geographical and health expenditure factors.

AB - Background. The circulatory diseases, in particular ischemic heart diseases and stroke, represent the main causes of death worldwide both in high income and in middle and low income countries. Our aim is to provide a comprehensive report to depict the circulatory disease mortality in Europe over the last 30 years and to address the sources of heterogeneity among different countries. Methods. Our study was performed using the WHO statistical information system - mortality database - and was restricted to the 28 countries belonging to the European Union (EU-28). We evaluated gender and age time series of all circulatory disease mortality, ischemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, pulmonary and other circulatory diseases and than we performed forecast for 2016. Mortality heterogeneity was evaluated by countries using the Cochrane Q statistic and the I-squared index. Results. Between 1985 and 2011 SDR for deaths attributable to all circulatory system diseases decreased from 440.9 to 212.0 x 100,000 in EU-28 and a clear uniform reduction was observed. Heterogeneity among countries was found to be consistent, therefore different analysis were carried out considering geographical area. Conclusions. We forecast a reduction in European cardiovascular mortality. Heterogeneity among countries could only in part be explained by both geographical and health expenditure factors.

KW - Cardiovascular mortality

KW - Europe

KW - Mortality forecast

KW - cardiovascular disease

KW - epidemiology

KW - female

KW - forecasting

KW - human

KW - male

KW - mortality

KW - time factor

KW - trends

KW - Cardiovascular Diseases

KW - Female

KW - Forecasting

KW - Humans

KW - Male

KW - Mortality

KW - Time Factors

U2 - 10.7416/ai.2017.2148

DO - 10.7416/ai.2017.2148

M3 - Article

VL - 29

SP - 206

EP - 217

JO - Annali di igiene : medicina preventiva e di comunita

JF - Annali di igiene : medicina preventiva e di comunita

SN - 1120-9135

IS - 3

ER -