First risk functions for prediction of coronary and cardiovascular disease incidence in the Gubbio Population Study

A. Menotti, M. Lanti, P. E. Puddu, M. Mancini, A. Zanchetti, M. Cirillo, O. T. Vagnarelli

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

20 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background. The Gubbio study is an Italian population study which measures the risk factors and incidence of major cardiovascular diseases. This analysis produces multivariate models for the prediction of cardiovascular end-points. Methods. A population sample of 2963 men and women aged 35-74, free from major cardiovascular diseases, was examined in 1983 with risk factor measurement, and a 6-year incidence was computed for coronary heart disease and all cardiovascular (atherosclerotic) events. Proportional hazards models were solved for the prediction of these events. Results. Over a 6-year period, 74 hard criteria, and 126 any criterion coronary heart disease and 174 cardiovascular events were recorded. Multivariate models showed the predictive power of sex (relative risk ranging 1.63 to 2.60), age (relative risk for 5-year difference ranging 1.38 to 1.48), systolic blood pressure (relative risk for 20 mmHg difference ranging 1.17 to 1.27), HDL cholesterol (relative risk for a difference of 10 mg/dl ranging 0.73 to 0.81), non-HDL cholesterol (relative risk for 40 mg/dl difference ranging 1.15 to 1.27), cigarette smoking (relative risk for 10 cigarette difference ranging 1.21 to 1.28), and body mass index (relative risk for 3 units ranging 0.99 to 1.02). All coefficients were statistically significant except that for body mass index, they were larger for hard criteria coronary heart disease, and their magnitude was similar to that found in previous Italian population studies. Conclusions. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors predict coronary and cardiovascular events in another Italian population study confirming previous findings and similar predictive models.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)394-399
Number of pages6
JournalItalian Heart Journal
Volume1
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - 2000

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Coronary Disease
Cardiovascular Diseases
Incidence
Population
Body Mass Index
Cardiovascular Models
Blood Pressure
Proportional Hazards Models
Tobacco Products
HDL Cholesterol
Multivariate Analysis
Smoking
Cholesterol

Keywords

  • Coronary heart disease
  • Epidemiology
  • Prediction
  • Risk factors

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine

Cite this

Menotti, A., Lanti, M., Puddu, P. E., Mancini, M., Zanchetti, A., Cirillo, M., & Vagnarelli, O. T. (2000). First risk functions for prediction of coronary and cardiovascular disease incidence in the Gubbio Population Study. Italian Heart Journal, 1(6), 394-399.

First risk functions for prediction of coronary and cardiovascular disease incidence in the Gubbio Population Study. / Menotti, A.; Lanti, M.; Puddu, P. E.; Mancini, M.; Zanchetti, A.; Cirillo, M.; Vagnarelli, O. T.

In: Italian Heart Journal, Vol. 1, No. 6, 2000, p. 394-399.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Menotti, A, Lanti, M, Puddu, PE, Mancini, M, Zanchetti, A, Cirillo, M & Vagnarelli, OT 2000, 'First risk functions for prediction of coronary and cardiovascular disease incidence in the Gubbio Population Study', Italian Heart Journal, vol. 1, no. 6, pp. 394-399.
Menotti A, Lanti M, Puddu PE, Mancini M, Zanchetti A, Cirillo M et al. First risk functions for prediction of coronary and cardiovascular disease incidence in the Gubbio Population Study. Italian Heart Journal. 2000;1(6):394-399.
Menotti, A. ; Lanti, M. ; Puddu, P. E. ; Mancini, M. ; Zanchetti, A. ; Cirillo, M. ; Vagnarelli, O. T. / First risk functions for prediction of coronary and cardiovascular disease incidence in the Gubbio Population Study. In: Italian Heart Journal. 2000 ; Vol. 1, No. 6. pp. 394-399.
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