Forecast of malignant peritoneal mesothelioma mortality in Italy up to 2040

Enrico Oddone, Jordy Bollon, Consuelo Rubina Nava, Giada Minelli, Marcello Imbriani, Dario Consonni, Alessandro Marinaccio, Corrado Magnani, Francesco Barone-Adesi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Despite their differences, pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma are frequently lumped together to describe epidemic curves and to forecast future mesothelioma trends. This study aims to describe the malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPeM) epidemic in Italy (1996–2016) and to forecast future trends up to 2040 in order to contribute to the assessment of MPeM future burden. All MPeM deaths in Italy from 1996–2016 were collected (as provided by the Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT)) in order to estimate MPeM mortality rates for each 3-year period from 1996 to 2016. Poisson age-period-cohort (APC) models were then used to forecast MPeM future trends. Between 2017 and 2040, 1333 MPeM deaths are expected. The number of MPeM deaths, as well as mortality rates, are expected to constantly decrease throughout the considered period. Based on considering the information from this study, it can be concluded that the MPeM epidemic has probably already reached its peak in Italy.

Original languageEnglish
Article number160
Pages (from-to)1-5
Number of pages5
JournalInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Volume18
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 1 2021

Keywords

  • APC model
  • Asbestos
  • Forecasts
  • Occupational medicine
  • Peritoneal mesothelioma
  • Public health

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis

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