6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background & Aims: Advances in direct-acting antiviral treatment of HCV have reinvigorated public health initiatives aimed at identifying affected individuals. We evaluated the possible impact of only diagnosed and linked-to-care individuals on overall HCV burden estimates and identified a possible strategy to achieve the WHO targets by 2030. Methods: Using a modelling approach grounded in Italian real-life data of diagnosed and treated patients, different linkage-to-care scenarios were built to evaluate potential strategies in achieving the HCV elimination goals. Results: Under the 40% linked-to-care scenario, viraemic burden would decline (60%); however, eligible patients to treat will be depleted by 2025. Increased case finding through a targeted screening strategy in 1948-1978 birth cohorts could supplement the pool of diagnosed patients by finding 75% of F0-F3 cases. Under the 60% linked-to-care scenario, viraemic infections would decline by 70% by 2030 but the patients eligible for treatment will run out by 2028. If treatment is to be maintained, a screening strategy focusing on 1958-1978 birth cohorts could capture 55% of F0-F3 individuals. Under the 80% linked-to-care scenario, screening limited in 1968-1978 birth cohorts could sustain treatment at levels required to achieve the HCV elimination goals. Conclusion: In Italy, which is an HCV endemic country, the eligible pool of patients to treat will run out between 2025 and 2028. To maintain the treatment rate and achieve the HCV elimination goals, increased case finding in targeted, high prevalence groups is required.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2190-2198
JournalLiver International
Volume38
Issue number12
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018

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Ice Cover
Hepatitis C
Liver Diseases
Parturition
Therapeutics
Italy
Antiviral Agents
Public Health
Infection

Keywords

  • chronic infection
  • HCV
  • linkage to care
  • WHO

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Hepatology

Cite this

Forecasting Hepatitis C liver disease burden on real-life data. Does the hidden iceberg matter to reach the elimination goals? / PITER Collaborating Group.

In: Liver International, Vol. 38, No. 12, 2018, p. 2190-2198.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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title = "Forecasting Hepatitis C liver disease burden on real-life data. Does the hidden iceberg matter to reach the elimination goals?",
abstract = "Background & Aims: Advances in direct-acting antiviral treatment of HCV have reinvigorated public health initiatives aimed at identifying affected individuals. We evaluated the possible impact of only diagnosed and linked-to-care individuals on overall HCV burden estimates and identified a possible strategy to achieve the WHO targets by 2030. Methods: Using a modelling approach grounded in Italian real-life data of diagnosed and treated patients, different linkage-to-care scenarios were built to evaluate potential strategies in achieving the HCV elimination goals. Results: Under the 40{\%} linked-to-care scenario, viraemic burden would decline (60{\%}); however, eligible patients to treat will be depleted by 2025. Increased case finding through a targeted screening strategy in 1948-1978 birth cohorts could supplement the pool of diagnosed patients by finding 75{\%} of F0-F3 cases. Under the 60{\%} linked-to-care scenario, viraemic infections would decline by 70{\%} by 2030 but the patients eligible for treatment will run out by 2028. If treatment is to be maintained, a screening strategy focusing on 1958-1978 birth cohorts could capture 55{\%} of F0-F3 individuals. Under the 80{\%} linked-to-care scenario, screening limited in 1968-1978 birth cohorts could sustain treatment at levels required to achieve the HCV elimination goals. Conclusion: In Italy, which is an HCV endemic country, the eligible pool of patients to treat will run out between 2025 and 2028. To maintain the treatment rate and achieve the HCV elimination goals, increased case finding in targeted, high prevalence groups is required.",
keywords = "chronic infection, HCV, linkage to care, WHO",
author = "{PITER Collaborating Group} and Kondili, {Loreta A.} and Sarah Robbins and Sarah Blach and Ivane Gamkrelidze and Zignego, {Anna L.} and Brunetto, {Maurizia R.} and Giovanni Raimondo and Gloria Taliani and Andrea Iannone and Russo, {Francesco P.} and Santantonio, {Teresa A.} and Massimo Zuin and Luchino Chessa and Pierluigi Blanc and Massimo Puoti and Maria Vinci and Erne, {Elke M.} and Mario Strazzabosco and Marco Massari and Pietro Lampertico and Rumi, {Maria G.} and Alessandro Federico and Alessandra Orlandini and Alessia Ciancio and Guglielmo Borgia and Pietro Andreone and Nicola Caporaso and Marcello Persico and Donatella Ieluzzi and Salvatore Madonia and Andrea Gori and Antonio Gasbarrini and Carmine Coppola and Giuseppina Brancaccio and Angelo Andriulli and Quaranta, {Maria G.} and Simona Montilla and Homie Razavi and Mario Melazzini and Stefano Vella and Antonio Crax{\`i}",
year = "2018",
doi = "10.1111/liv.13901",
language = "English",
volume = "38",
pages = "2190--2198",
journal = "Liver International",
issn = "1478-3223",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd",
number = "12",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Forecasting Hepatitis C liver disease burden on real-life data. Does the hidden iceberg matter to reach the elimination goals?

AU - PITER Collaborating Group

AU - Kondili, Loreta A.

AU - Robbins, Sarah

AU - Blach, Sarah

AU - Gamkrelidze, Ivane

AU - Zignego, Anna L.

AU - Brunetto, Maurizia R.

AU - Raimondo, Giovanni

AU - Taliani, Gloria

AU - Iannone, Andrea

AU - Russo, Francesco P.

AU - Santantonio, Teresa A.

AU - Zuin, Massimo

AU - Chessa, Luchino

AU - Blanc, Pierluigi

AU - Puoti, Massimo

AU - Vinci, Maria

AU - Erne, Elke M.

AU - Strazzabosco, Mario

AU - Massari, Marco

AU - Lampertico, Pietro

AU - Rumi, Maria G.

AU - Federico, Alessandro

AU - Orlandini, Alessandra

AU - Ciancio, Alessia

AU - Borgia, Guglielmo

AU - Andreone, Pietro

AU - Caporaso, Nicola

AU - Persico, Marcello

AU - Ieluzzi, Donatella

AU - Madonia, Salvatore

AU - Gori, Andrea

AU - Gasbarrini, Antonio

AU - Coppola, Carmine

AU - Brancaccio, Giuseppina

AU - Andriulli, Angelo

AU - Quaranta, Maria G.

AU - Montilla, Simona

AU - Razavi, Homie

AU - Melazzini, Mario

AU - Vella, Stefano

AU - Craxì, Antonio

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - Background & Aims: Advances in direct-acting antiviral treatment of HCV have reinvigorated public health initiatives aimed at identifying affected individuals. We evaluated the possible impact of only diagnosed and linked-to-care individuals on overall HCV burden estimates and identified a possible strategy to achieve the WHO targets by 2030. Methods: Using a modelling approach grounded in Italian real-life data of diagnosed and treated patients, different linkage-to-care scenarios were built to evaluate potential strategies in achieving the HCV elimination goals. Results: Under the 40% linked-to-care scenario, viraemic burden would decline (60%); however, eligible patients to treat will be depleted by 2025. Increased case finding through a targeted screening strategy in 1948-1978 birth cohorts could supplement the pool of diagnosed patients by finding 75% of F0-F3 cases. Under the 60% linked-to-care scenario, viraemic infections would decline by 70% by 2030 but the patients eligible for treatment will run out by 2028. If treatment is to be maintained, a screening strategy focusing on 1958-1978 birth cohorts could capture 55% of F0-F3 individuals. Under the 80% linked-to-care scenario, screening limited in 1968-1978 birth cohorts could sustain treatment at levels required to achieve the HCV elimination goals. Conclusion: In Italy, which is an HCV endemic country, the eligible pool of patients to treat will run out between 2025 and 2028. To maintain the treatment rate and achieve the HCV elimination goals, increased case finding in targeted, high prevalence groups is required.

AB - Background & Aims: Advances in direct-acting antiviral treatment of HCV have reinvigorated public health initiatives aimed at identifying affected individuals. We evaluated the possible impact of only diagnosed and linked-to-care individuals on overall HCV burden estimates and identified a possible strategy to achieve the WHO targets by 2030. Methods: Using a modelling approach grounded in Italian real-life data of diagnosed and treated patients, different linkage-to-care scenarios were built to evaluate potential strategies in achieving the HCV elimination goals. Results: Under the 40% linked-to-care scenario, viraemic burden would decline (60%); however, eligible patients to treat will be depleted by 2025. Increased case finding through a targeted screening strategy in 1948-1978 birth cohorts could supplement the pool of diagnosed patients by finding 75% of F0-F3 cases. Under the 60% linked-to-care scenario, viraemic infections would decline by 70% by 2030 but the patients eligible for treatment will run out by 2028. If treatment is to be maintained, a screening strategy focusing on 1958-1978 birth cohorts could capture 55% of F0-F3 individuals. Under the 80% linked-to-care scenario, screening limited in 1968-1978 birth cohorts could sustain treatment at levels required to achieve the HCV elimination goals. Conclusion: In Italy, which is an HCV endemic country, the eligible pool of patients to treat will run out between 2025 and 2028. To maintain the treatment rate and achieve the HCV elimination goals, increased case finding in targeted, high prevalence groups is required.

KW - chronic infection

KW - HCV

KW - linkage to care

KW - WHO

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U2 - 10.1111/liv.13901

DO - 10.1111/liv.13901

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85052599351

VL - 38

SP - 2190

EP - 2198

JO - Liver International

JF - Liver International

SN - 1478-3223

IS - 12

ER -