Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013

A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Mohsen Correction Naghavi, Haidong Wang, Rafael Lozano, Adrian Davis, Xiaofeng Liang, Maigeng Zhou, Stein Emil Vollset, Ayse Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Safa Abdalla, Foad Abd-Allah, Muna I Abdel Aziz, Semaw Ferede Abera, Victor Aboyans, Biju Abraham, Jerry P. Abraham, Katrina E. Abuabara, Ibrahim Abubakar, Laith J. Abu-Raddad, Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh, Tom Achoki & 700 others Ademola Adelekan, Zanfina Ademi, Koranteng Adofo, Arse Kouablan Adou, Jos C. Adsuar, Johan Ärnlöv, Emilie Elisabet Agardh, Dickens Akena, Mazin J. Al Khabouri, Deena Alasfoor, Mohammed Albittar, Miguel Angel Alegretti, Alicia V. Aleman, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Rafael Alfonso-Cristancho, Samia Alhabib, Mohammed K. Ali, Raghib Ali, Francois Alla, Faris Al Lami, Peter Allebeck, Mohammad A. AlMazroa, Rustam Al-Shahi Salman, Ubai Alsharif, Elena Alvarez, Nelson Alviz-Guzman, Adansi A. Amankwaa, Azmeraw T. Amare, Omid Ameli, Hassan Amini, Walid Ammar, H. Ross Anderson, Benjamin O. Anderson, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Palwasha Anwari, Henry Apfel, Solveig Argeseanu Cunningham, Valentina S Arsic Arsenijevic, Al Artaman, Majed Masoud Asad, Rana J. Asghar, Reza Assadi, Lydia S. Atkins, Charles Atkinson, Alaa Badawi, Maria C. Bahit, Talal Bakfalouni, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Shivanthi Balalla, Amitava Banerjee, Ryan M. Barber, Suzanne L. Barker-Collo, Simon Barquera, Lars Barregard, Lope H. Barrero, Tonatiuh Barrientos-Gutierrez, Arindam Basu, Sanjay Basu, Mohammed Omar Basulaiman, Justin Beardsley, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Tolesa Bekele, Michelle L. Bell, Corina Benjet, Derrick A. Bennett, Isabela M. Bensenor, Habib Benzian, Amelia Bertozzi-Villa, Tariku Jibat Beyene, Neeraj Bhala, Ashish Bhalla, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Boris Bikbov, Aref Bin Abdulhak, Stan Biryukov, Jed D. Blore, Fiona M. Blyth, Megan A. Bohensky, Guilherme Borges, Dipan Bose, Soufiane Boufous, Rupert R. Bourne, Lindsay N. Boyers, Michael Brainin, Michael Brauer, Carol E G Brayne, Alexandra Brazinova, Nicholas Breitborde, Hermann Brenner, Adam D M Briggs, Jonathan C. Brown, Traolach S. Brugha, Geoffrey C. Buckle, Linh Ngoc Bui, Gene Bukhman, Michael Burch, Ismael Ricardo Campos Nonato, He Carabin, Rosario Cárdenas, Jonathan Carapetis, David O. Carpenter, Valeria Caso, Carlos A. Castanda-Orjuela, Ruben Estanislao Castro, Ferrán Catalá-López, Fiorella Cavalleri, Jung Chen Chang, Fiona C. Charlson, Xuan Che, Honglei Chen, Yingyao Chen, Jian Sheng Chen, Zhengming Chen, Peggy Pei Chia Chiang, Odgerel Chimed-Ochir, Rajiv Chowdhury, Hanne Christensen, Costas A. Christophi, Ting Wu Chuang, Sumeet S. Chugh, Massimo Cirillo, Matthew M. Coates, Luc Edgar Coffeng, Megan S. Coggeshall, Aaron Cohen, Valentina Colistro, Samantha M. Colquhoun, Mercedes Colomar, Leslie Trumbull Cooper, Cyrus Cooper, Luis M. Coppola, Monica Cortinovis, Karen Courville, Benjamin C. Cowie, Michael H. Criqui, John A. Crump, Lucia Cuevas-Nasu, Iuri Da Costa Leite, Kaustubh C. Dabhadkar, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Emily Dansereau, Paul I. Dargan, Anand Dayama, Vanessa De la Cruz-Góngora, Shelley F. De La Vega, Diego De Leo, Louisa Degenhardt, Borja Del Pozo-Cruz, Robert P. Dellavalle, Kebede Deribe, Don C. Des Jarlais, Muluken Dessalegn, Gabrielle A. DeVeber, Samath D. Dharmaratne, Mukesh Dherani, Jose Luis Diaz-Ortega, Cesar Diaz-Torne, Daniel Dicker, Eric L. Ding, Klara Dokova, E. Ray Dorsey, Tim R. Driscoll, Leilei Duan, Herbert C. Duber, Adnan M. Durrani, Beth E. Ebel, Karen M. Edmond, Richard G. Ellenbogen, Yousef Elshrek, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Holly E. Erskine, Babak Eshrati, Alireza Esteghamati, Kara Estep, Thomas Fürst, Saman Fahimi, Anna S. Fahrion, Emerito Jose A Faraon, Farshad Farzadfar, Derek F J Fay, Andrea B. Feigl, Valery L. Feigin, Manuela Mendonca Felicio, Seyed Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Jefferson G. Fernandes, Alize J. Ferrari, Thomas D. Fleming, Nataliya Foigt, Kyle Foreman, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar, F. Gerry R Fowkes, Urbano Fra Paleo, Richard C. Franklin, Neal D. Futran, Lynne Gaffikin, Ketevan Gambashidze, Fortuné Gbétoho Gankpé, Francisco Armando Garc-Guerra, Ana Cristina Garcia, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Bradford D. Gessner, Katherine B. Gibney, Richard F. Gillum, Stuart Gilmour, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi, Maurice Giroud, Elizabeth L. Glaser, Shifalika Goenka, Hector Gomez Dantes, Philimon Gona, Diego Gonzalez-Medina, Caterina Guinovart, Rahul Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Richard A. Gosselin, Carolyn C. Gotay, Atsushi Goto, Hebe N. Gouda, Nicholas Graetz, K. Fern Greenwell, Harish Chander Gugnani, David Gunnell, Reyna A. Gutiiérez, Juanita Haagsma, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Holly Hagan, Maria Hagstromer, Yara A. Halasa, Randah Ribhi Hamadeh, Hannah Hamavid, Mouhanad Hammami, Jamie Hancock, Graeme J. Hankey, Gillian M. Hansen, Hilda L. Harb, Heather Harewood, Josep Maria Haro, Rasmus Havmoeller, Roderick J. Hay, Simon I. Hay, Mohammad T. Hedayati, Ileana B Heredia Pi, Kyle R. Heuton, Pouria Heydarpour, Hideki Higashi, Martha Hijar, Hans W. Hoek, Howard J. Hoffman, John C. Hornberger, H. Dean Hosgood, Mazeda Hossain, Peter J. Hotez, Damian G. Hoy, Mohamed Hsairi, Guoqing Hu, John J. Huang, Mark D. Huffman, Andrew J. Hughes, Abdullatif Husseini, Chantal Huynh, Marissa Iannarone, Kim M. Iburg, Bulat T. Idrisov, Nayu Ikeda, Kaire Innos, Manami Inoue, Farhad Islami, Samaya Ismayilova, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Simerjot Jassal, Sudha P. Jayaraman, Paul N. Jensen, Vivekanand Jha, Guohong Jiang, Ying Jiang, Jost B. Jonas, Jonathan Joseph, Knud Juel, Edmond Kato Kabagambe, Haidong Kan, Andr Karch, Chante Karimkhani, Ganesan Karthikeyan, Nicholas Kassebaum, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Konstantin Kazanjan, Dhruv S. Kazi, Andrew H. Kemp, Andre Pascal Kengne, Andre Keren, Maia Kereselidze, Yousef Saleh Khader, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa, Ejaz Ahmed Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Young Ho Khang, Christian Kieling, Yohannes Kinfu, Jonas M. Kinge, Daniel Kim, Sungroul Kim, Miia Kivipelto, Luke Knibbs, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Sowarta Kosen, Meera Kotagal, Michael A. Kravchenko, Sanjay Krishnaswami, Hans Krueger, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Ernst J. Kuipers, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, Chanda Kulkarni, Veena S. Kulkarni, Kaushalendra Kumar, Ravi B. Kumar, Gene F. Kwan, Hmwe Kyu, Taavi Lai, Arjun Lakshmana Balaji, Ratilal Lalloo, Tea Lallukka, Hilton Lam, Qing Lan, Van C. Lansingh, Heidi J. Larson, Anders Larsson, Pablo M. Lavados, Alicia E B Lawrynowicz, Janet L. Leasher, Jong Tae Lee, James Leigh, Mall Leinsalu, Ricky Leung, Carly Levitz, Bin Li, Yichong Li, Yongmei Li, Chelsea Liddell, Stephen S. Lim, Graça Maria Ferreira De Lima, Maggie L. Lind, Steven E. Lipshultz, Shiwei Liu, Yang Liu, Belinda K. Lloyd, Katherine T. Lofgren, Giancarlo Logroscino, Stephanie J. London, Joannie Lortet-Tieulent, Paulo A. Lotufo, Robyn M. Lucas, Raimundas Lunevicius, Ronan Anthony Lyons, Stefan Ma, Vasco Manuel Pedro Machado, Michael F. MacIntyre, Mark T. Mackay, Jennifer H. MacLachlan, Carlos Magis-Rodriguez, Abbas A. Mahdi, Marek Majdan, Reza Malekzadeh, Srikanth Mangalam, Christopher Chabila Mapoma, Marape Marape, Wagner Marcenes, Christopher Margono, Guy B. Marks, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Joseph R. Masci, Mohammad Taufiq Mashal, Felix Masiye, Amanda J. Mason-Jones, Richard Matzopolous, Bongani M. Mayosi, Tasara T. Mazorodze, John J. McGrath, Abigail C. McKay, Martin McKee, Abigail McLain, Peter A. Meaney, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez, Yohannes Adama Melaku, Michele Meltzer, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, George A. Mensah, Atte Meretoja, Francis A. Mhimbira, Ted R. Miller, Edward J. Mills, Awoke Misganaw, Santosh K. Mishra, Charles N. Mock, Terrie E. Moffitt, Norlinah Mohamed Ibrahim, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Ali H. Mokdad, Glen Liddell Mola, Lorenzo Monasta, Jonathan De La Cruz Monis, Julio C Montanêz Hernandez, Marcella Montico, Thomas J. Montine, Meghan D. Mooney, Ami R. Moore, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Andrew E. Moran, Rintaro Mori, Joanna Moschandreas, Wilkister Nyaora Moturi, Madeline L. Moyer, Dariush Mozaffarian, Ulrich O. Mueller, Mitsuru Mukaigawara, Erin C. Mullany, Joseph Murray, Adetoun Mustapha, Paria Naghavi, Aliya Naheed, Kovin S. Naidoo, Luigi Naldi, Devina Nand, Vinay Nangia, K. M Venkat Narayan, Denis Nash, Jamal Nasher, Chakib Nejjari, Robert G. Nelson, Marian Neuhouser, Sudan Prasad Neupane, Polly A. Newcomb, Lori Newman, Charles R. Newton, Marie Ng, Frida Namnyak Ngalesoni, Grant Nguyen, Nhung Thi Trang Nguyen, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Sandra Nolte, Ole F. Norheim, Rosana E. Norman, Bo Norrving, Luke Nyakarahuka, Shaun Odell, Martin O'Donnell, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Summer Lockett Ohno, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Saad B. Omer, John Nelson Opio, Orish Ebere Orisakwe, Katrina F. Ortblad, Alberto Ortiz, Maria Lourdes K Otayza, Amanda W. Pain, Jeyaraj D. Pandian, Carlo Irwin Panelo, Jeemon Panniyammakal, Christina Papachristou, Angel J. Paternina Caicedo, Scott B. Patten, George C. Patton, Vinod K. Paul, Boris Pavlin, Neil Pearce, Carlos A. Pellegrini, David M. Pereira, Sophie C. Peresson, Rogelio Perez-Padilla, Fernando P. Perez-Ruiz, Norberto Perico, Aslam Pervaiz, Konrad Pesudovs, Carrie B. Peterson, Max Petzold, Bryan K. Phillips, David E. Phillips, Michael R. Phillips, Dietrich Plass, Frédéric Bernard Piel, Dan Poenaru, Suzanne Polinder, Svetlana Popova, Richie G. Poulton, Farshad Pourmalek, Dorairaj Prabhakaran, Dima Qato, Amado D. Quezada, D. Alex Quistberg, Felicia Rabito, Anwar Rafay, Kazem Rahimi, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Sajjad U R Rahman, Murugesan Raju, Ivo Rakovac, Saleem M. Rana, Amany Refaat, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Antonio L. Ribeiro, Stefano Ricci, Patricia M. Riccio, Lee Richardson, Jan Hendrik Richardus, Bayard Roberts, D. Allen Roberts, Margaret Robinson, Anna Roca, Alina Rodriguez, David Rojas-Rueda, Luca Ronfani, Robin Room, Gregory A. Roth, Dietrich Rothenbacher, David H. Rothstein, Jane T F Rowley, Nobhojit Roy, George M. Ruhago, Lesley Rushton, Sankar Sambandam, Kjetil Søreide, Mohammad Yahya Saeedi, Sukanta Saha, Ramesh Sahathevan, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Berhe Weldearegawi Sahle, Joshua A. Salomon, Deborah Salvo, Genesis May J Samonte, Uchechukwu Sampson, Juan Ramon Sanabria, Logan Sandar, Itamar S. Santos, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Mete Saylan, Peter Scarborough, Ben Schöttker, Jürgen C. Schmidt, Ione J C Schneider, Austin E. Schumacher, David C. Schwebel, James G. Scott, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Edson E. Servan-Mori, Katya Shackelford, Amira Shaheen, Saeid Shahraz, Marina Shakh-Nazarova, Siyi Shangguan, Jun She, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Donald S. Shepard, Kenji Shibuya, Yukito Shinohara, Kawkab Shishani, Ivy Shiue, Rupak Shivakoti, Mark G. Shrime, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Donald H. Silberberg, Andrea P. Silva, Edgar P. Simard, Shireen Sindi, Jasvinder A. Singh, Lavanya Singh, Edgar Sioson, Vegard Skirbekk, Karen Sliwa, Samuel So, Michael Soljak, Samir Soneji, Sergey S. Soshnikov, Luciano A. Sposato, Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy, Jeffrey D. Stanaway, Vasiliki Kalliopi Stathopoulou, Kyle Steenland, Claudia Stein, Caitlyn Steiner, Antony Stevens, Heidi Stöckl, Kurt Straif, Konstantinos Stroumpoulis, Lela Sturua, Bruno F. Sunguya, Soumya Swaminathan, Mamta Swaroop, Bryan L. Sykes, Karen M. Tabb, Ken Takahashi, Roberto Tchio Talongwa, Feng Tan, David Tanne, Marcel Tanner, Mohammad Tavakkoli, Braden Te Ao, Carolina Maria Teixeira, Tara Templin, Eric Yeboah Tenkorang, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Bernadette A. Thomas, Andrew L. Thorne-Lyman, Amanda G. Thrift, George D. Thurston, Taavi Tillmann, David L. Tirschwell, Imad M. Tleyjeh, Marcello Tonelli, Fotis Topouzis, Jeffrey A. Towbin, Hideaki Toyoshima, Jefferson Traebert, Bach X. Tran, Thomas Truelsen, Ulises Trujillo, Matias Trillini, Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene, Miltiadis Tsilimbaris, E. Murat Tuzcu, Clotilde Ubeda, Uche S. Uchendu, Kingsley N. Ukwaja, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Andrew J. Vallely, Steven Van De Vijver, Coen H. Van Gool, Yuri Y. Varakin, Tommi J. Vasankari, Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos, Monica S. Vavilala, N. Venketasubramanian, Lakshmi Vijayakumar, Salvador Villalpando, Francesco S. Violante, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, Gregory R. Wagner, Stephen G. Waller, JianLi Wang, Linhong Wang, XiaoRong Wang, Yanping Wang, Tati Suryati Warouw, Scott Weichenthal, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert G. Weintraub, Wang Wenzhi, Andrea Werdecker, K. Ryan R Wessells, Ronny Westerman, Harvey A. Whiteford, James D. Wilkinson, Thomas Neil Williams, Solomon Meseret Woldeyohannes, Charles D A Wolfe, Timothy M. Wolock, Anthony D. Woolf, John Q. Wong, Jonathan L. 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Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3335 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)117-171
Number of pages55
JournalLancet
Volume385
Issue number9963
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 10 2015

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Cause of Death
Mortality
Uncertainty
Life Expectancy
Respiratory Tract Infections
Diarrhea
Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
Global Burden of Disease
Garbage
HIV
Parturition
Southern Africa
Atrial Flutter
Life Tables
Africa South of the Sahara
Rotavirus
Russia
Wounds and Injuries
Sickle Cell Anemia
Statistical Models

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)

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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. / Correction Naghavi, Mohsen; Wang, Haidong; Lozano, Rafael; Davis, Adrian; Liang, Xiaofeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Vollset, Stein Emil; Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu; Abdalla, Safa; Abd-Allah, Foad; Aziz, Muna I Abdel; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Aboyans, Victor; Abraham, Biju; Abraham, Jerry P.; Abuabara, Katrina E.; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Achoki, Tom; Adelekan, Ademola; Ademi, Zanfina; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arse Kouablan; Adsuar, Jos C.; Ärnlöv, Johan; Agardh, Emilie Elisabet; Akena, Dickens; Al Khabouri, Mazin J.; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed; Alegretti, Miguel Angel; Aleman, Alicia V.; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Mohammed K.; Ali, Raghib; Alla, Francois; Al Lami, Faris; Allebeck, Peter; AlMazroa, Mohammad A.; Al-Shahi Salman, Rustam; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alviz-Guzman, Nelson; Amankwaa, Adansi A.; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Ameli, Omid; Amini, Hassan; Ammar, Walid; Anderson, H. Ross; Anderson, Benjamin O.; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Apfel, Henry; Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu; Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic; Artaman, Al; Asad, Majed Masoud; Asghar, Rana J.; Assadi, Reza; Atkins, Lydia S.; Atkinson, Charles; Badawi, Alaa; Bahit, Maria C.; Bakfalouni, Talal; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balalla, Shivanthi; Banerjee, Amitava; Barber, Ryan M.; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.; Barquera, Simon; Barregard, Lars; Barrero, Lope H.; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Basu, Arindam; Basu, Sanjay; Basulaiman, Mohammed Omar; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Beghi, Ettore; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L.; Benjet, Corina; Bennett, Derrick A.; Bensenor, Isabela M.; Benzian, Habib; Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia; Beyene, Tariku Jibat; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Bikbov, Boris; Abdulhak, Aref Bin; Biryukov, Stan; Blore, Jed D.; Blyth, Fiona M.; Bohensky, Megan A.; Borges, Guilherme; Bose, Dipan; Boufous, Soufiane; Bourne, Rupert R.; Boyers, Lindsay N.; Brainin, Michael; Brauer, Michael; Brayne, Carol E G; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas; Brenner, Hermann; Briggs, Adam D M; Brown, Jonathan C.; Brugha, Traolach S.; Buckle, Geoffrey C.; Bui, Linh Ngoc; Bukhman, Gene; Burch, Michael; Campos Nonato, Ismael Ricardo; Carabin, He; Cárdenas, Rosario; Carapetis, Jonathan; Carpenter, David O.; Caso, Valeria; Castanda-Orjuela, Carlos A.; Castro, Ruben Estanislao; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Chang, Jung Chen; Charlson, Fiona C.; Che, Xuan; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Yingyao; Chen, Jian Sheng; Chen, Zhengming; Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christensen, Hanne; Christophi, Costas A.; Chuang, Ting Wu; Chugh, Sumeet S.; Cirillo, Massimo; Coates, Matthew M.; Coffeng, Luc Edgar; Coggeshall, Megan S.; Cohen, Aaron; Colistro, Valentina; Colquhoun, Samantha M.; Colomar, Mercedes; Cooper, Leslie Trumbull; Cooper, Cyrus; Coppola, Luis M.; Cortinovis, Monica; Courville, Karen; Cowie, Benjamin C.; Criqui, Michael H.; Crump, John A.; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia; Da Costa Leite, Iuri; Dabhadkar, Kaustubh C.; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Dansereau, Emily; Dargan, Paul I.; Dayama, Anand; De la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa; De La Vega, Shelley F.; De Leo, Diego; Degenhardt, Louisa; Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja; Dellavalle, Robert P.; Deribe, Kebede; Des Jarlais, Don C.; Dessalegn, Muluken; DeVeber, Gabrielle A.; Dharmaratne, Samath D.; Dherani, Mukesh; Diaz-Ortega, Jose Luis; Diaz-Torne, Cesar; Dicker, Daniel; Ding, Eric L.; Dokova, Klara; Dorsey, E. Ray; Driscoll, Tim R.; Duan, Leilei; Duber, Herbert C.; Durrani, Adnan M.; Ebel, Beth E.; Edmond, Karen M.; Ellenbogen, Richard G.; Elshrek, Yousef; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich; Erskine, Holly E.; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Estep, Kara; Fürst, Thomas; Fahimi, Saman; Fahrion, Anna S.; Faraon, Emerito Jose A; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fay, Derek F J; Feigl, Andrea B.; Feigin, Valery L.; Felicio, Manuela Mendonca; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad; Fernandes, Jefferson G.; Ferrari, Alize J.; Fleming, Thomas D.; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Fowkes, F. Gerry R; Paleo, Urbano Fra; Franklin, Richard C.; Futran, Neal D.; Gaffikin, Lynne; Gambashidze, Ketevan; Gankpé, Fortuné Gbétoho; Garc-Guerra, Francisco Armando; Garcia, Ana Cristina; Geleijnse, Johanna M.; Gessner, Bradford D.; Gibney, Katherine B.; Gillum, Richard F.; Gilmour, Stuart; Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed; Giroud, Maurice; Glaser, Elizabeth L.; Goenka, Shifalika; Dantes, Hector Gomez; Gona, Philimon; Gonzalez-Medina, Diego; Guinovart, Caterina; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gosselin, Richard A.; Gotay, Carolyn C.; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N.; Graetz, Nicholas; Greenwell, K. Fern; Gugnani, Harish Chander; Gunnell, David; Gutiiérez, Reyna A.; Haagsma, Juanita; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hagan, Holly; Hagstromer, Maria; Halasa, Yara A.; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hamavid, Hannah; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hancock, Jamie; Hankey, Graeme J.; Hansen, Gillian M.; Harb, Hilda L.; Harewood, Heather; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Roderick J.; Hay, Simon I.; Hedayati, Mohammad T.; Pi, Ileana B Heredia; Heuton, Kyle R.; Heydarpour, Pouria; Higashi, Hideki; Hijar, Martha; Hoek, Hans W.; Hoffman, Howard J.; Hornberger, John C.; Hosgood, H. Dean; Hossain, Mazeda; Hotez, Peter J.; Hoy, Damian G.; Hsairi, Mohamed; Hu, Guoqing; Huang, John J.; Huffman, Mark D.; Hughes, Andrew J.; Husseini, Abdullatif; Huynh, Chantal; Iannarone, Marissa; Iburg, Kim M.; Idrisov, Bulat T.; Ikeda, Nayu; Innos, Kaire; Inoue, Manami; Islami, Farhad; Ismayilova, Samaya; Jacobsen, Kathryn H.; Jassal, Simerjot; Jayaraman, Sudha P.; Jensen, Paul N.; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Guohong; Jiang, Ying; Jonas, Jost B.; Joseph, Jonathan; Juel, Knud; Kabagambe, Edmond Kato; Kan, Haidong; Karch, Andr; Karimkhani, Chante; Karthikeyan, Ganesan; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kazanjan, Konstantin; Kazi, Dhruv S.; Kemp, Andrew H.; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Keren, Andre; Kereselidze, Maia; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Ali Hassan Khalifa, Shams Eldin; Khan, Ejaz Ahmed; Khan, Gulfaraz; Khang, Young Ho; Kieling, Christian; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas M.; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Sungroul; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke; Knudsen, Ann Kristin; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kosen, Sowarta; Kotagal, Meera; Kravchenko, Michael A.; Krishnaswami, Sanjay; Krueger, Hans; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Kuipers, Ernst J.; Kucuk Bicer, Burcu; Kulkarni, Chanda; Kulkarni, Veena S.; Kumar, Kaushalendra; Kumar, Ravi B.; Kwan, Gene F.; Kyu, Hmwe; Lai, Taavi; Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lallukka, Tea; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C.; Larson, Heidi J.; Larsson, Anders; Lavados, Pablo M.; Lawrynowicz, Alicia E B; Leasher, Janet L.; Lee, Jong Tae; Leigh, James; Leinsalu, Mall; Leung, Ricky; Levitz, Carly; Li, Bin; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Liddell, Chelsea; Lim, Stephen S.; De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira; Lind, Maggie L.; Lipshultz, Steven E.; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K.; Lofgren, Katherine T.; Logroscino, Giancarlo; London, Stephanie J.; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Lotufo, Paulo A.; Lucas, Robyn M.; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Lyons, Ronan Anthony; Ma, Stefan; Pedro Machado, Vasco Manuel; MacIntyre, Michael F.; Mackay, Mark T.; MacLachlan, Jennifer H.; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Mahdi, Abbas A.; Majdan, Marek; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mangalam, Srikanth; Mapoma, Christopher Chabila; Marape, Marape; Marcenes, Wagner; Margono, Christopher; Marks, Guy B.; Marzan, Melvin Barrientos; Masci, Joseph R.; Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J.; Matzopolous, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M.; Mazorodze, Tasara T.; McGrath, John J.; McKay, Abigail C.; McKee, Martin; McLain, Abigail; Meaney, Peter A.; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Meltzer, Michele; Memish, Ziad A.; Mendoza, Walter; Mensah, George A.; Meretoja, Atte; Mhimbira, Francis A.; Miller, Ted R.; Mills, Edward J.; Misganaw, Awoke; Mishra, Santosh K.; Mock, Charles N.; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Mokdad, Ali H.; Mola, Glen Liddell; Monasta, Lorenzo; De La Cruz Monis, Jonathan; Hernandez, Julio C Montanêz; Montico, Marcella; Montine, Thomas J.; Mooney, Meghan D.; Moore, Ami R.; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Moran, Andrew E.; Mori, Rintaro; Moschandreas, Joanna; Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora; Moyer, Madeline L.; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Mueller, Ulrich O.; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru; Mullany, Erin C.; Murray, Joseph; Mustapha, Adetoun; Naghavi, Paria; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S.; Naldi, Luigi; Nand, Devina; Nangia, Vinay; Narayan, K. M Venkat; Nash, Denis; Nasher, Jamal; Nejjari, Chakib; Nelson, Robert G.; Neuhouser, Marian; Neupane, Sudan Prasad; Newcomb, Polly A.; Newman, Lori; Newton, Charles R.; Ng, Marie; Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak; Nguyen, Grant; Nguyen, Nhung Thi Trang; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Nolte, Sandra; Norheim, Ole F.; Norman, Rosana E.; Norrving, Bo; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Odell, Shaun; O'Donnell, Martin; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Ohno, Summer Lockett; Olusanya, Bolajoko O.; Omer, Saad B.; Opio, John Nelson; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere; Ortblad, Katrina F.; Ortiz, Alberto; Otayza, Maria Lourdes K; Pain, Amanda W.; Pandian, Jeyaraj D.; Panelo, Carlo Irwin; Panniyammakal, Jeemon; Papachristou, Christina; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J.; Patten, Scott B.; Patton, George C.; Paul, Vinod K.; Pavlin, Boris; Pearce, Neil; Pellegrini, Carlos A.; Pereira, David M.; Peresson, Sophie C.; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando P.; Perico, Norberto; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Peterson, Carrie B.; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Bryan K.; Phillips, David E.; Phillips, Michael R.; Plass, Dietrich; Piel, Frédéric Bernard; Poenaru, Dan; Polinder, Suzanne; Popova, Svetlana; Poulton, Richie G.; Pourmalek, Farshad; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Qato, Dima; Quezada, Amado D.; Quistberg, D. Alex; Rabito, Felicia; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad U R; Raju, Murugesan; Rakovac, Ivo; Rana, Saleem M.; Refaat, Amany; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Ribeiro, Antonio L.; Ricci, Stefano; Riccio, Patricia M.; Richardson, Lee; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Roberts, Bayard; Roberts, D. Allen; Robinson, Margaret; Roca, Anna; Rodriguez, Alina; Rojas-Rueda, David; Ronfani, Luca; Room, Robin; Roth, Gregory A.; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Rothstein, David H.; Rowley, Jane T F; Roy, Nobhojit; Ruhago, George M.; Rushton, Lesley; Sambandam, Sankar; Søreide, Kjetil; Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya; Saha, Sukanta; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Sahle, Berhe Weldearegawi; Salomon, Joshua A.; Salvo, Deborah; Samonte, Genesis May J; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Sanabria, Juan Ramon; Sandar, Logan; Santos, Itamar S.; Satpathy, Maheswar; Sawhney, Monika; Saylan, Mete; Scarborough, Peter; Schöttker, Ben; Schmidt, Jürgen C.; Schneider, Ione J C; Schumacher, Austin E.; Schwebel, David C.; Scott, James G.; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Servan-Mori, Edson E.; Shackelford, Katya; Shaheen, Amira; Shahraz, Saeid; Shakh-Nazarova, Marina; Shangguan, Siyi; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shepard, Donald S.; Shibuya, Kenji; Shinohara, Yukito; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Shivakoti, Rupak; Shrime, Mark G.; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Silberberg, Donald H.; Silva, Andrea P.; Simard, Edgar P.; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Jasvinder A.; Singh, Lavanya; Sioson, Edgar; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; So, Samuel; Soljak, Michael; Soneji, Samir; Soshnikov, Sergey S.; Sposato, Luciano A.; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.; Stanaway, Jeffrey D.; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi; Steenland, Kyle; Stein, Claudia; Steiner, Caitlyn; Stevens, Antony; Stöckl, Heidi; Straif, Kurt; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sturua, Lela; Sunguya, Bruno F.; Swaminathan, Soumya; Swaroop, Mamta; Sykes, Bryan L.; Tabb, Karen M.; Takahashi, Ken; Talongwa, Roberto Tchio; Tan, Feng; Tanne, David; Tanner, Marcel; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Ao, Braden Te; Teixeira, Carolina Maria; Templin, Tara; Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Thomas, Bernadette A.; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L.; Thrift, Amanda G.; Thurston, George D.; Tillmann, Taavi; Tirschwell, David L.; Tleyjeh, Imad M.; Tonelli, Marcello; Topouzis, Fotis; Towbin, Jeffrey A.; Toyoshima, Hideaki; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach X.; Truelsen, Thomas; Trujillo, Ulises; Trillini, Matias; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Tuzcu, E. Murat; Ubeda, Clotilde; Uchendu, Uche S.; Ukwaja, Kingsley N.; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Vallely, Andrew J.; Van De Vijver, Steven; Van Gool, Coen H.; Varakin, Yuri Y.; Vasankari, Tommi J.; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales; Vavilala, Monica S.; Venketasubramanian, N.; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Villalpando, Salvador; Violante, Francesco S.; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Wagner, Gregory R.; Waller, Stephen G.; Wang, JianLi; Wang, Linhong; Wang, XiaoRong; Wang, Yanping; Warouw, Tati Suryati; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G.; Wenzhi, Wang; Werdecker, Andrea; Wessells, K. Ryan R; Westerman, Ronny; Whiteford, Harvey A.; Wilkinson, James D.; Williams, Thomas Neil; Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret; Wolfe, Charles D A; Wolock, Timothy M.; Woolf, Anthony D.; Wong, John Q.; Wright, Jonathan L.; Wulf, Sarah; Wurtz, Brittany; Xu, Gelin; Yang, Yang C.; Yano, Yuichiro; Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok Jun; Younis, Mustafa; Yu, Chuanhua; Jin, Kim Yun; El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa; Zamakhshary, Mohammed Fouad; Zeeb, Hajo; Zhang, Yong; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhu, Jun; Zhu, Shankuan; Zonies, David; Zou, Xiao Nong; Zunt, Joseph R.; Vos, Theo; Lopez, Alan D.; Murray, Christopher J L; Alcalá-Cerra, G.; Balala, S.; Chang, C. C.; Gosslin, R. A.; Hu, H.; Karam, N.; Sabin, N.; Temesgen, A. M.

In: Lancet, Vol. 385, No. 9963, 10.01.2015, p. 117-171.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Correction Naghavi, M, Wang, H, Lozano, R, Davis, A, Liang, X, Zhou, M, Vollset, SE, Ozgoren, AA, Abdalla, S, Abd-Allah, F, Aziz, MIA, Abera, SF, Aboyans, V, Abraham, B, Abraham, JP, Abuabara, KE, Abubakar, I, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NME, Achoki, T, Adelekan, A, Ademi, Z, Adofo, K, Adou, AK, Adsuar, JC, Ärnlöv, J, Agardh, EE, Akena, D, Al Khabouri, MJ, Alasfoor, D, Albittar, M, Alegretti, MA, Aleman, AV, Alemu, ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho, R, Alhabib, S, Ali, MK, Ali, R, Alla, F, Al Lami, F, Allebeck, P, AlMazroa, MA, Al-Shahi Salman, R, Alsharif, U, Alvarez, E, Alviz-Guzman, N, Amankwaa, AA, Amare, AT, Ameli, O, Amini, H, Ammar, W, Anderson, HR, Anderson, BO, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Apfel, H, Cunningham, SA, Arsenijevic, VSA, Artaman, A, Asad, MM, Asghar, RJ, Assadi, R, Atkins, LS, Atkinson, C, Badawi, A, Bahit, MC, Bakfalouni, T, Balakrishnan, K, Balalla, S, Banerjee, A, Barber, RM, Barker-Collo, SL, Barquera, S, Barregard, L, Barrero, LH, Barrientos-Gutierrez, T, Basu, A, Basu, S, 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Correction Naghavi, Mohsen ; Wang, Haidong ; Lozano, Rafael ; Davis, Adrian ; Liang, Xiaofeng ; Zhou, Maigeng ; Vollset, Stein Emil ; Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu ; Abdalla, Safa ; Abd-Allah, Foad ; Aziz, Muna I Abdel ; Abera, Semaw Ferede ; Aboyans, Victor ; Abraham, Biju ; Abraham, Jerry P. ; Abuabara, Katrina E. ; Abubakar, Ibrahim ; Abu-Raddad, Laith J. ; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E ; Achoki, Tom ; Adelekan, Ademola ; Ademi, Zanfina ; Adofo, Koranteng ; Adou, Arse Kouablan ; Adsuar, Jos C. ; Ärnlöv, Johan ; Agardh, Emilie Elisabet ; Akena, Dickens ; Al Khabouri, Mazin J. ; Alasfoor, Deena ; Albittar, Mohammed ; Alegretti, Miguel Angel ; Aleman, Alicia V. ; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw ; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael ; Alhabib, Samia ; Ali, Mohammed K. ; Ali, Raghib ; Alla, Francois ; Al Lami, Faris ; Allebeck, Peter ; AlMazroa, Mohammad A. ; Al-Shahi Salman, Rustam ; Alsharif, Ubai ; Alvarez, Elena ; Alviz-Guzman, Nelson ; Amankwaa, Adansi A. ; Amare, Azmeraw T. ; Ameli, Omid ; Amini, Hassan ; Ammar, Walid ; Anderson, H. Ross ; Anderson, Benjamin O. ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T ; Anwari, Palwasha ; Apfel, Henry ; Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu ; Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic ; Artaman, Al ; Asad, Majed Masoud ; Asghar, Rana J. ; Assadi, Reza ; Atkins, Lydia S. ; Atkinson, Charles ; Badawi, Alaa ; Bahit, Maria C. ; Bakfalouni, Talal ; Balakrishnan, Kalpana ; Balalla, Shivanthi ; Banerjee, Amitava ; Barber, Ryan M. ; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L. ; Barquera, Simon ; Barregard, Lars ; Barrero, Lope H. ; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh ; Basu, Arindam ; Basu, Sanjay ; Basulaiman, Mohammed Omar ; Beardsley, Justin ; Bedi, Neeraj ; Beghi, Ettore ; Bekele, Tolesa ; Bell, Michelle L. ; Benjet, Corina ; Bennett, Derrick A. ; Bensenor, Isabela M. ; Benzian, Habib ; Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia ; Beyene, Tariku Jibat ; Bhala, Neeraj ; Bhalla, Ashish ; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. ; Bikbov, Boris ; Abdulhak, Aref Bin ; Biryukov, Stan ; Blore, Jed D. ; Blyth, Fiona M. ; Bohensky, Megan A. ; Borges, Guilherme ; Bose, Dipan ; Boufous, Soufiane ; Bourne, Rupert R. ; Boyers, Lindsay N. ; Brainin, Michael ; Brauer, Michael ; Brayne, Carol E G ; Brazinova, Alexandra ; Breitborde, Nicholas ; Brenner, Hermann ; Briggs, Adam D M ; Brown, Jonathan C. ; Brugha, Traolach S. ; Buckle, Geoffrey C. ; Bui, Linh Ngoc ; Bukhman, Gene ; Burch, Michael ; Campos Nonato, Ismael Ricardo ; Carabin, He ; Cárdenas, Rosario ; Carapetis, Jonathan ; Carpenter, David O. ; Caso, Valeria ; Castanda-Orjuela, Carlos A. ; Castro, Ruben Estanislao ; Catalá-López, Ferrán ; Cavalleri, Fiorella ; Chang, Jung Chen ; Charlson, Fiona C. ; Che, Xuan ; Chen, Honglei ; Chen, Yingyao ; Chen, Jian Sheng ; Chen, Zhengming ; Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia ; Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel ; Chowdhury, Rajiv ; Christensen, Hanne ; Christophi, Costas A. ; Chuang, Ting Wu ; Chugh, Sumeet S. ; Cirillo, Massimo ; Coates, Matthew M. ; Coffeng, Luc Edgar ; Coggeshall, Megan S. ; Cohen, Aaron ; Colistro, Valentina ; Colquhoun, Samantha M. ; Colomar, Mercedes ; Cooper, Leslie Trumbull ; Cooper, Cyrus ; Coppola, Luis M. ; Cortinovis, Monica ; Courville, Karen ; Cowie, Benjamin C. ; Criqui, Michael H. ; Crump, John A. ; Cuevas-Nasu, Lucia ; Da Costa Leite, Iuri ; Dabhadkar, Kaustubh C. ; Dandona, Lalit ; Dandona, Rakhi ; Dansereau, Emily ; Dargan, Paul I. ; Dayama, Anand ; De la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa ; De La Vega, Shelley F. ; De Leo, Diego ; Degenhardt, Louisa ; Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja ; Dellavalle, Robert P. ; Deribe, Kebede ; Des Jarlais, Don C. ; Dessalegn, Muluken ; DeVeber, Gabrielle A. ; Dharmaratne, Samath D. ; Dherani, Mukesh ; Diaz-Ortega, Jose Luis ; Diaz-Torne, Cesar ; Dicker, Daniel ; Ding, Eric L. ; Dokova, Klara ; Dorsey, E. Ray ; Driscoll, Tim R. ; Duan, Leilei ; Duber, Herbert C. ; Durrani, Adnan M. ; Ebel, Beth E. ; Edmond, Karen M. ; Ellenbogen, Richard G. ; Elshrek, Yousef ; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich ; Erskine, Holly E. ; Eshrati, Babak ; Esteghamati, Alireza ; Estep, Kara ; Fürst, Thomas ; Fahimi, Saman ; Fahrion, Anna S. ; Faraon, Emerito Jose A ; Farzadfar, Farshad ; Fay, Derek F J ; Feigl, Andrea B. ; Feigin, Valery L. ; Felicio, Manuela Mendonca ; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad ; Fernandes, Jefferson G. ; Ferrari, Alize J. ; Fleming, Thomas D. ; Foigt, Nataliya ; Foreman, Kyle ; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H. ; Fowkes, F. Gerry R ; Paleo, Urbano Fra ; Franklin, Richard C. ; Futran, Neal D. ; Gaffikin, Lynne ; Gambashidze, Ketevan ; Gankpé, Fortuné Gbétoho ; Garc-Guerra, Francisco Armando ; Garcia, Ana Cristina ; Geleijnse, Johanna M. ; Gessner, Bradford D. ; Gibney, Katherine B. ; Gillum, Richard F. ; Gilmour, Stuart ; Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed ; Giroud, Maurice ; Glaser, Elizabeth L. ; Goenka, Shifalika ; Dantes, Hector Gomez ; Gona, Philimon ; Gonzalez-Medina, Diego ; Guinovart, Caterina ; Gupta, Rahul ; Gupta, Rajeev ; Gosselin, Richard A. ; Gotay, Carolyn C. ; Goto, Atsushi ; Gouda, Hebe N. ; Graetz, Nicholas ; Greenwell, K. Fern ; Gugnani, Harish Chander ; Gunnell, David ; Gutiiérez, Reyna A. ; Haagsma, Juanita ; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima ; Hagan, Holly ; Hagstromer, Maria ; Halasa, Yara A. ; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi ; Hamavid, Hannah ; Hammami, Mouhanad ; Hancock, Jamie ; Hankey, Graeme J. ; Hansen, Gillian M. ; Harb, Hilda L. ; Harewood, Heather ; Haro, Josep Maria ; Havmoeller, Rasmus ; Hay, Roderick J. ; Hay, Simon I. ; Hedayati, Mohammad T. ; Pi, Ileana B Heredia ; Heuton, Kyle R. ; Heydarpour, Pouria ; Higashi, Hideki ; Hijar, Martha ; Hoek, Hans W. ; Hoffman, Howard J. ; Hornberger, John C. ; Hosgood, H. Dean ; Hossain, Mazeda ; Hotez, Peter J. ; Hoy, Damian G. ; Hsairi, Mohamed ; Hu, Guoqing ; Huang, John J. ; Huffman, Mark D. ; Hughes, Andrew J. ; Husseini, Abdullatif ; Huynh, Chantal ; Iannarone, Marissa ; Iburg, Kim M. ; Idrisov, Bulat T. ; Ikeda, Nayu ; Innos, Kaire ; Inoue, Manami ; Islami, Farhad ; Ismayilova, Samaya ; Jacobsen, Kathryn H. ; Jassal, Simerjot ; Jayaraman, Sudha P. ; Jensen, Paul N. ; Jha, Vivekanand ; Jiang, Guohong ; Jiang, Ying ; Jonas, Jost B. ; Joseph, Jonathan ; Juel, Knud ; Kabagambe, Edmond Kato ; Kan, Haidong ; Karch, Andr ; Karimkhani, Chante ; Karthikeyan, Ganesan ; Kassebaum, Nicholas ; Kaul, Anil ; Kawakami, Norito ; Kazanjan, Konstantin ; Kazi, Dhruv S. ; Kemp, Andrew H. ; Kengne, Andre Pascal ; Keren, Andre ; Kereselidze, Maia ; Khader, Yousef Saleh ; Ali Hassan Khalifa, Shams Eldin ; Khan, Ejaz Ahmed ; Khan, Gulfaraz ; Khang, Young Ho ; Kieling, Christian ; Kinfu, Yohannes ; Kinge, Jonas M. ; Kim, Daniel ; Kim, Sungroul ; Kivipelto, Miia ; Knibbs, Luke ; Knudsen, Ann Kristin ; Kokubo, Yoshihiro ; Kosen, Sowarta ; Kotagal, Meera ; Kravchenko, Michael A. ; Krishnaswami, Sanjay ; Krueger, Hans ; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate ; Kuipers, Ernst J. ; Kucuk Bicer, Burcu ; Kulkarni, Chanda ; Kulkarni, Veena S. ; Kumar, Kaushalendra ; Kumar, Ravi B. ; Kwan, Gene F. ; Kyu, Hmwe ; Lai, Taavi ; Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana ; Lalloo, Ratilal ; Lallukka, Tea ; Lam, Hilton ; Lan, Qing ; Lansingh, Van C. ; Larson, Heidi J. ; Larsson, Anders ; Lavados, Pablo M. ; Lawrynowicz, Alicia E B ; Leasher, Janet L. ; Lee, Jong Tae ; Leigh, James ; Leinsalu, Mall ; Leung, Ricky ; Levitz, Carly ; Li, Bin ; Li, Yichong ; Li, Yongmei ; Liddell, Chelsea ; Lim, Stephen S. ; De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira ; Lind, Maggie L. ; Lipshultz, Steven E. ; Liu, Shiwei ; Liu, Yang ; Lloyd, Belinda K. ; Lofgren, Katherine T. ; Logroscino, Giancarlo ; London, Stephanie J. ; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie ; Lotufo, Paulo A. ; Lucas, Robyn M. ; Lunevicius, Raimundas ; Lyons, Ronan Anthony ; Ma, Stefan ; Pedro Machado, Vasco Manuel ; MacIntyre, Michael F. ; Mackay, Mark T. ; MacLachlan, Jennifer H. ; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos ; Mahdi, Abbas A. ; Majdan, Marek ; Malekzadeh, Reza ; Mangalam, Srikanth ; Mapoma, Christopher Chabila ; Marape, Marape ; Marcenes, Wagner ; Margono, Christopher ; Marks, Guy B. ; Marzan, Melvin Barrientos ; Masci, Joseph R. ; Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq ; Masiye, Felix ; Mason-Jones, Amanda J. ; Matzopolous, Richard ; Mayosi, Bongani M. ; Mazorodze, Tasara T. ; McGrath, John J. ; McKay, Abigail C. ; McKee, Martin ; McLain, Abigail ; Meaney, Peter A. ; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan ; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola ; Melaku, Yohannes Adama ; Meltzer, Michele ; Memish, Ziad A. ; Mendoza, Walter ; Mensah, George A. ; Meretoja, Atte ; Mhimbira, Francis A. ; Miller, Ted R. ; Mills, Edward J. ; Misganaw, Awoke ; Mishra, Santosh K. ; Mock, Charles N. ; Moffitt, Terrie E. ; Ibrahim, Norlinah Mohamed ; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin ; Mokdad, Ali H. ; Mola, Glen Liddell ; Monasta, Lorenzo ; De La Cruz Monis, Jonathan ; Hernandez, Julio C Montanêz ; Montico, Marcella ; Montine, Thomas J. ; Mooney, Meghan D. ; Moore, Ami R. ; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar ; Moran, Andrew E. ; Mori, Rintaro ; Moschandreas, Joanna ; Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora ; Moyer, Madeline L. ; Mozaffarian, Dariush ; Mueller, Ulrich O. ; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru ; Mullany, Erin C. ; Murray, Joseph ; Mustapha, Adetoun ; Naghavi, Paria ; Naheed, Aliya ; Naidoo, Kovin S. ; Naldi, Luigi ; Nand, Devina ; Nangia, Vinay ; Narayan, K. M Venkat ; Nash, Denis ; Nasher, Jamal ; Nejjari, Chakib ; Nelson, Robert G. ; Neuhouser, Marian ; Neupane, Sudan Prasad ; Newcomb, Polly A. ; Newman, Lori ; Newton, Charles R. ; Ng, Marie ; Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak ; Nguyen, Grant ; Nguyen, Nhung Thi Trang ; Nisar, Muhammad Imran ; Nolte, Sandra ; Norheim, Ole F. ; Norman, Rosana E. ; Norrving, Bo ; Nyakarahuka, Luke ; Odell, Shaun ; O'Donnell, Martin ; Ohkubo, Takayoshi ; Ohno, Summer Lockett ; Olusanya, Bolajoko O. ; Omer, Saad B. ; Opio, John Nelson ; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere ; Ortblad, Katrina F. ; Ortiz, Alberto ; Otayza, Maria Lourdes K ; Pain, Amanda W. ; Pandian, Jeyaraj D. ; Panelo, Carlo Irwin ; Panniyammakal, Jeemon ; Papachristou, Christina ; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J. ; Patten, Scott B. ; Patton, George C. ; Paul, Vinod K. ; Pavlin, Boris ; Pearce, Neil ; Pellegrini, Carlos A. ; Pereira, David M. ; Peresson, Sophie C. ; Perez-Padilla, Rogelio ; Perez-Ruiz, Fernando P. ; Perico, Norberto ; Pervaiz, Aslam ; Pesudovs, Konrad ; Peterson, Carrie B. ; Petzold, Max ; Phillips, Bryan K. ; Phillips, David E. ; Phillips, Michael R. ; Plass, Dietrich ; Piel, Frédéric Bernard ; Poenaru, Dan ; Polinder, Suzanne ; Popova, Svetlana ; Poulton, Richie G. ; Pourmalek, Farshad ; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj ; Qato, Dima ; Quezada, Amado D. ; Quistberg, D. Alex ; Rabito, Felicia ; Rafay, Anwar ; Rahimi, Kazem ; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa ; Rahman, Sajjad U R ; Raju, Murugesan ; Rakovac, Ivo ; Rana, Saleem M. ; Refaat, Amany ; Remuzzi, Giuseppe ; Ribeiro, Antonio L. ; Ricci, Stefano ; Riccio, Patricia M. ; Richardson, Lee ; Richardus, Jan Hendrik ; Roberts, Bayard ; Roberts, D. Allen ; Robinson, Margaret ; Roca, Anna ; Rodriguez, Alina ; Rojas-Rueda, David ; Ronfani, Luca ; Room, Robin ; Roth, Gregory A. ; Rothenbacher, Dietrich ; Rothstein, David H. ; Rowley, Jane T F ; Roy, Nobhojit ; Ruhago, George M. ; Rushton, Lesley ; Sambandam, Sankar ; Søreide, Kjetil ; Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya ; Saha, Sukanta ; Sahathevan, Ramesh ; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali ; Sahle, Berhe Weldearegawi ; Salomon, Joshua A. ; Salvo, Deborah ; Samonte, Genesis May J ; Sampson, Uchechukwu ; Sanabria, Juan Ramon ; Sandar, Logan ; Santos, Itamar S. ; Satpathy, Maheswar ; Sawhney, Monika ; Saylan, Mete ; Scarborough, Peter ; Schöttker, Ben ; Schmidt, Jürgen C. ; Schneider, Ione J C ; Schumacher, Austin E. ; Schwebel, David C. ; Scott, James G. ; Sepanlou, Sadaf G. ; Servan-Mori, Edson E. ; Shackelford, Katya ; Shaheen, Amira ; Shahraz, Saeid ; Shakh-Nazarova, Marina ; Shangguan, Siyi ; She, Jun ; Sheikhbahaei, Sara ; Shepard, Donald S. ; Shibuya, Kenji ; Shinohara, Yukito ; Shishani, Kawkab ; Shiue, Ivy ; Shivakoti, Rupak ; Shrime, Mark G. ; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora ; Silberberg, Donald H. ; Silva, Andrea P. ; Simard, Edgar P. ; Sindi, Shireen ; Singh, Jasvinder A. ; Singh, Lavanya ; Sioson, Edgar ; Skirbekk, Vegard ; Sliwa, Karen ; So, Samuel ; Soljak, Michael ; Soneji, Samir ; Soshnikov, Sergey S. ; Sposato, Luciano A. ; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. ; Stanaway, Jeffrey D. ; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi ; Steenland, Kyle ; Stein, Claudia ; Steiner, Caitlyn ; Stevens, Antony ; Stöckl, Heidi ; Straif, Kurt ; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos ; Sturua, Lela ; Sunguya, Bruno F. ; Swaminathan, Soumya ; Swaroop, Mamta ; Sykes, Bryan L. ; Tabb, Karen M. ; Takahashi, Ken ; Talongwa, Roberto Tchio ; Tan, Feng ; Tanne, David ; Tanner, Marcel ; Tavakkoli, Mohammad ; Ao, Braden Te ; Teixeira, Carolina Maria ; Templin, Tara ; Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah ; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman ; Thomas, Bernadette A. ; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L. ; Thrift, Amanda G. ; Thurston, George D. ; Tillmann, Taavi ; Tirschwell, David L. ; Tleyjeh, Imad M. ; Tonelli, Marcello ; Topouzis, Fotis ; Towbin, Jeffrey A. ; Toyoshima, Hideaki ; Traebert, Jefferson ; Tran, Bach X. ; Truelsen, Thomas ; Trujillo, Ulises ; Trillini, Matias ; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala ; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis ; Tuzcu, E. Murat ; Ubeda, Clotilde ; Uchendu, Uche S. ; Ukwaja, Kingsley N. ; Undurraga, Eduardo A. ; Vallely, Andrew J. ; Van De Vijver, Steven ; Van Gool, Coen H. ; Varakin, Yuri Y. ; Vasankari, Tommi J. ; Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales ; Vavilala, Monica S. ; Venketasubramanian, N. ; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi ; Villalpando, Salvador ; Violante, Francesco S. ; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich ; Wagner, Gregory R. ; Waller, Stephen G. ; Wang, JianLi ; Wang, Linhong ; Wang, XiaoRong ; Wang, Yanping ; Warouw, Tati Suryati ; Weichenthal, Scott ; Weiderpass, Elisabete ; Weintraub, Robert G. ; Wenzhi, Wang ; Werdecker, Andrea ; Wessells, K. Ryan R ; Westerman, Ronny ; Whiteford, Harvey A. ; Wilkinson, James D. ; Williams, Thomas Neil ; Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret ; Wolfe, Charles D A ; Wolock, Timothy M. ; Woolf, Anthony D. ; Wong, John Q. ; Wright, Jonathan L. ; Wulf, Sarah ; Wurtz, Brittany ; Xu, Gelin ; Yang, Yang C. ; Yano, Yuichiro ; Yatsuya, Hiroshi ; Yip, Paul ; Yonemoto, Naohiro ; Yoon, Seok Jun ; Younis, Mustafa ; Yu, Chuanhua ; Jin, Kim Yun ; El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa ; Zamakhshary, Mohammed Fouad ; Zeeb, Hajo ; Zhang, Yong ; Zhao, Yong ; Zheng, Yingfeng ; Zhu, Jun ; Zhu, Shankuan ; Zonies, David ; Zou, Xiao Nong ; Zunt, Joseph R. ; Vos, Theo ; Lopez, Alan D. ; Murray, Christopher J L ; Alcalá-Cerra, G. ; Balala, S. ; Chang, C. C. ; Gosslin, R. A. ; Hu, H. ; Karam, N. ; Sabin, N. ; Temesgen, A. M. / Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. In: Lancet. 2015 ; Vol. 385, No. 9963. pp. 117-171.
@article{d8b9abc09ff142319130cf08265abbb7,
title = "Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013",
abstract = "Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95{\%} uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7{\%}, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21{\%}. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.",
author = "{Correction Naghavi}, Mohsen and Haidong Wang and Rafael Lozano and Adrian Davis and Xiaofeng Liang and Maigeng Zhou and Vollset, {Stein Emil} and Ozgoren, {Ayse Abbasoglu} and Safa Abdalla and Foad Abd-Allah and Aziz, {Muna I Abdel} and Abera, {Semaw Ferede} and Victor Aboyans and Biju Abraham and Abraham, {Jerry P.} and Abuabara, {Katrina E.} and Ibrahim Abubakar and Abu-Raddad, {Laith J.} and Abu-Rmeileh, {Niveen M E} and Tom Achoki and Ademola Adelekan and Zanfina Ademi and Koranteng Adofo and Adou, {Arse Kouablan} and Adsuar, {Jos C.} and Johan {\"A}rnl{\"o}v and Agardh, {Emilie Elisabet} and Dickens Akena and {Al Khabouri}, {Mazin J.} and Deena Alasfoor and Mohammed Albittar and Alegretti, {Miguel Angel} and Aleman, {Alicia V.} and Alemu, {Zewdie Aderaw} and Rafael Alfonso-Cristancho and Samia Alhabib and Ali, {Mohammed K.} and Raghib Ali and Francois Alla and {Al Lami}, Faris and Peter Allebeck and AlMazroa, {Mohammad A.} and {Al-Shahi Salman}, Rustam and Ubai Alsharif and Elena Alvarez and Nelson Alviz-Guzman and Amankwaa, {Adansi A.} and Amare, {Azmeraw T.} and Omid Ameli and Hassan Amini and Walid Ammar and Anderson, {H. Ross} and Anderson, {Benjamin O.} and Antonio, {Carl Abelardo T} and Palwasha Anwari and Henry Apfel and Cunningham, {Solveig Argeseanu} and Arsenijevic, {Valentina S Arsic} and Al Artaman and Asad, {Majed Masoud} and Asghar, {Rana J.} and Reza Assadi and Atkins, {Lydia S.} and Charles Atkinson and Alaa Badawi and Bahit, {Maria C.} and Talal Bakfalouni and Kalpana Balakrishnan and Shivanthi Balalla and Amitava Banerjee and Barber, {Ryan M.} and Barker-Collo, {Suzanne L.} and Simon Barquera and Lars Barregard and Barrero, {Lope H.} and Tonatiuh Barrientos-Gutierrez and Arindam Basu and Sanjay Basu and Basulaiman, {Mohammed Omar} and Justin Beardsley and Neeraj Bedi and Ettore Beghi and Tolesa Bekele and Bell, {Michelle L.} and Corina Benjet and Bennett, {Derrick A.} and Bensenor, {Isabela M.} and Habib Benzian and Amelia Bertozzi-Villa and Beyene, {Tariku Jibat} and Neeraj Bhala and Ashish Bhalla and Bhutta, {Zulfiqar A.} and Boris Bikbov and Abdulhak, {Aref Bin} and Stan Biryukov and Blore, {Jed D.} and Blyth, {Fiona M.} and Bohensky, {Megan A.} and Guilherme Borges and Dipan Bose and Soufiane Boufous and Bourne, {Rupert R.} and Boyers, {Lindsay N.} and Michael Brainin and Michael Brauer and Brayne, {Carol E G} and Alexandra Brazinova and Nicholas Breitborde and Hermann Brenner and Briggs, {Adam D M} and Brown, {Jonathan C.} and Brugha, {Traolach S.} and Buckle, {Geoffrey C.} and Bui, {Linh Ngoc} and Gene Bukhman and Michael Burch and {Campos Nonato}, {Ismael Ricardo} and He Carabin and Rosario C{\'a}rdenas and Jonathan Carapetis and Carpenter, {David O.} and Valeria Caso and Castanda-Orjuela, {Carlos A.} and Castro, {Ruben Estanislao} and Ferr{\'a}n Catal{\'a}-L{\'o}pez and Fiorella Cavalleri and Chang, {Jung Chen} and Charlson, {Fiona C.} and Xuan Che and Honglei Chen and Yingyao Chen and Chen, {Jian Sheng} and Zhengming Chen and Chiang, {Peggy Pei Chia} and Odgerel Chimed-Ochir and Rajiv Chowdhury and Hanne Christensen and Christophi, {Costas A.} and Chuang, {Ting Wu} and Chugh, {Sumeet S.} and Massimo Cirillo and Coates, {Matthew M.} and Coffeng, {Luc Edgar} and Coggeshall, {Megan S.} and Aaron Cohen and Valentina Colistro and Colquhoun, {Samantha M.} and Mercedes Colomar and Cooper, {Leslie Trumbull} and Cyrus Cooper and Coppola, {Luis M.} and Monica Cortinovis and Karen Courville and Cowie, {Benjamin C.} and Criqui, {Michael H.} and Crump, {John A.} and Lucia Cuevas-Nasu and {Da Costa Leite}, Iuri and Dabhadkar, {Kaustubh C.} and Lalit Dandona and Rakhi Dandona and Emily Dansereau and Dargan, {Paul I.} and Anand Dayama and {De la Cruz-G{\'o}ngora}, Vanessa and {De La Vega}, {Shelley F.} and {De Leo}, Diego and Louisa Degenhardt and {Del Pozo-Cruz}, Borja and Dellavalle, {Robert P.} and Kebede Deribe and {Des Jarlais}, {Don C.} and Muluken Dessalegn and DeVeber, {Gabrielle A.} and Dharmaratne, {Samath D.} and Mukesh Dherani and Diaz-Ortega, {Jose Luis} and Cesar Diaz-Torne and Daniel Dicker and Ding, {Eric L.} and Klara Dokova and Dorsey, {E. Ray} and Driscoll, {Tim R.} and Leilei Duan and Duber, {Herbert C.} and Durrani, {Adnan M.} and Ebel, {Beth E.} and Edmond, {Karen M.} and Ellenbogen, {Richard G.} and Yousef Elshrek and Ermakov, {Sergey Petrovich} and Erskine, {Holly E.} and Babak Eshrati and Alireza Esteghamati and Kara Estep and Thomas F{\"u}rst and Saman Fahimi and Fahrion, {Anna S.} and Faraon, {Emerito Jose A} and Farshad Farzadfar and Fay, {Derek F J} and Feigl, {Andrea B.} and Feigin, {Valery L.} and Felicio, {Manuela Mendonca} and Fereshtehnejad, {Seyed Mohammad} and Fernandes, {Jefferson G.} and Ferrari, {Alize J.} and Fleming, {Thomas D.} and Nataliya Foigt and Kyle Foreman and Forouzanfar, {Mohammad H.} and Fowkes, {F. Gerry R} and Paleo, {Urbano Fra} and Franklin, {Richard C.} and Futran, {Neal D.} and Lynne Gaffikin and Ketevan Gambashidze and Gankp{\'e}, {Fortun{\'e} Gb{\'e}toho} and Garc-Guerra, {Francisco Armando} and Garcia, {Ana Cristina} and Geleijnse, {Johanna M.} and Gessner, {Bradford D.} and Gibney, {Katherine B.} and Gillum, {Richard F.} and Stuart Gilmour and Ginawi, {Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed} and Maurice Giroud and Glaser, {Elizabeth L.} and Shifalika Goenka and Dantes, {Hector Gomez} and Philimon Gona and Diego Gonzalez-Medina and Caterina Guinovart and Rahul Gupta and Rajeev Gupta and Gosselin, {Richard A.} and Gotay, {Carolyn C.} and Atsushi Goto and Gouda, {Hebe N.} and Nicholas Graetz and Greenwell, {K. Fern} and Gugnani, {Harish Chander} and David Gunnell and Gutii{\'e}rez, {Reyna A.} and Juanita Haagsma and Nima Hafezi-Nejad and Holly Hagan and Maria Hagstromer and Halasa, {Yara A.} and Hamadeh, {Randah Ribhi} and Hannah Hamavid and Mouhanad Hammami and Jamie Hancock and Hankey, {Graeme J.} and Hansen, {Gillian M.} and Harb, {Hilda L.} and Heather Harewood and Haro, {Josep Maria} and Rasmus Havmoeller and Hay, {Roderick J.} and Hay, {Simon I.} and Hedayati, {Mohammad T.} and Pi, {Ileana B Heredia} and Heuton, {Kyle R.} and Pouria Heydarpour and Hideki Higashi and Martha Hijar and Hoek, {Hans W.} and Hoffman, {Howard J.} and Hornberger, {John C.} and Hosgood, {H. Dean} and Mazeda Hossain and Hotez, {Peter J.} and Hoy, {Damian G.} and Mohamed Hsairi and Guoqing Hu and Huang, {John J.} and Huffman, {Mark D.} and Hughes, {Andrew J.} and Abdullatif Husseini and Chantal Huynh and Marissa Iannarone and Iburg, {Kim M.} and Idrisov, {Bulat T.} and Nayu Ikeda and Kaire Innos and Manami Inoue and Farhad Islami and Samaya Ismayilova and Jacobsen, {Kathryn H.} and Simerjot Jassal and Jayaraman, {Sudha P.} and Jensen, {Paul N.} and Vivekanand Jha and Guohong Jiang and Ying Jiang and Jonas, {Jost B.} and Jonathan Joseph and Knud Juel and Kabagambe, {Edmond Kato} and Haidong Kan and Andr Karch and Chante Karimkhani and Ganesan Karthikeyan and Nicholas Kassebaum and Anil Kaul and Norito Kawakami and Konstantin Kazanjan and Kazi, {Dhruv S.} and Kemp, {Andrew H.} and Kengne, {Andre Pascal} and Andre Keren and Maia Kereselidze and Khader, {Yousef Saleh} and {Ali Hassan Khalifa}, {Shams Eldin} and Khan, {Ejaz Ahmed} and Gulfaraz Khan and Khang, {Young Ho} and Christian Kieling and Yohannes Kinfu and Kinge, {Jonas M.} and Daniel Kim and Sungroul Kim and Miia Kivipelto and Luke Knibbs and Knudsen, {Ann Kristin} and Yoshihiro Kokubo and Sowarta Kosen and Meera Kotagal and Kravchenko, {Michael A.} and Sanjay Krishnaswami and Hans Krueger and Defo, {Barthelemy Kuate} and Kuipers, {Ernst J.} and {Kucuk Bicer}, Burcu and Chanda Kulkarni and Kulkarni, {Veena S.} and Kaushalendra Kumar and Kumar, {Ravi B.} and Kwan, {Gene F.} and Hmwe Kyu and Taavi Lai and Balaji, {Arjun Lakshmana} and Ratilal Lalloo and Tea Lallukka and Hilton Lam and Qing Lan and Lansingh, {Van C.} and Larson, {Heidi J.} and Anders Larsson and Lavados, {Pablo M.} and Lawrynowicz, {Alicia E B} and Leasher, {Janet L.} and Lee, {Jong Tae} and James Leigh and Mall Leinsalu and Ricky Leung and Carly Levitz and Bin Li and Yichong Li and Yongmei Li and Chelsea Liddell and Lim, {Stephen S.} and {De Lima}, {Gra{\cc}a Maria Ferreira} and Lind, {Maggie L.} and Lipshultz, {Steven E.} and Shiwei Liu and Yang Liu and Lloyd, {Belinda K.} and Lofgren, {Katherine T.} and Giancarlo Logroscino and London, {Stephanie J.} and Joannie Lortet-Tieulent and Lotufo, {Paulo A.} and Lucas, {Robyn M.} and Raimundas Lunevicius and Lyons, {Ronan Anthony} and Stefan Ma and {Pedro Machado}, {Vasco Manuel} and MacIntyre, {Michael F.} and Mackay, {Mark T.} and MacLachlan, {Jennifer H.} and Carlos Magis-Rodriguez and Mahdi, {Abbas A.} and Marek Majdan and Reza Malekzadeh and Srikanth Mangalam and Mapoma, {Christopher Chabila} and Marape Marape and Wagner Marcenes and Christopher Margono and Marks, {Guy B.} and Marzan, {Melvin Barrientos} and Masci, {Joseph R.} and Mashal, {Mohammad Taufiq} and Felix Masiye and Mason-Jones, {Amanda J.} and Richard Matzopolous and Mayosi, {Bongani M.} and Mazorodze, {Tasara T.} and McGrath, {John J.} and McKay, {Abigail C.} and Martin McKee and Abigail McLain and Meaney, {Peter A.} and Mehndiratta, {Man Mohan} and Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez and Melaku, {Yohannes Adama} and Michele Meltzer and Memish, {Ziad A.} and Walter Mendoza and Mensah, {George A.} and Atte Meretoja and Mhimbira, {Francis A.} and Miller, {Ted R.} and Mills, {Edward J.} and Awoke Misganaw and Mishra, {Santosh K.} and Mock, {Charles N.} and Moffitt, {Terrie E.} and Ibrahim, {Norlinah Mohamed} and Mohammad, {Karzan Abdulmuhsin} and Mokdad, {Ali H.} and Mola, {Glen Liddell} and Lorenzo Monasta and {De La Cruz Monis}, Jonathan and Hernandez, {Julio C Montan{\^e}z} and Marcella Montico and Montine, {Thomas J.} and Mooney, {Meghan D.} and Moore, {Ami R.} and Maziar Moradi-Lakeh and Moran, {Andrew E.} and Rintaro Mori and Joanna Moschandreas and Moturi, {Wilkister Nyaora} and Moyer, {Madeline L.} and Dariush Mozaffarian and Mueller, {Ulrich O.} and Mitsuru Mukaigawara and Mullany, {Erin C.} and Joseph Murray and Adetoun Mustapha and Paria Naghavi and Aliya Naheed and Naidoo, {Kovin S.} and Luigi Naldi and Devina Nand and Vinay Nangia and Narayan, {K. M Venkat} and Denis Nash and Jamal Nasher and Chakib Nejjari and Nelson, {Robert G.} and Marian Neuhouser and Neupane, {Sudan Prasad} and Newcomb, {Polly A.} and Lori Newman and Newton, {Charles R.} and Marie Ng and Ngalesoni, {Frida Namnyak} and Grant Nguyen and Nguyen, {Nhung Thi Trang} and Nisar, {Muhammad Imran} and Sandra Nolte and Norheim, {Ole F.} and Norman, {Rosana E.} and Bo Norrving and Luke Nyakarahuka and Shaun Odell and Martin O'Donnell and Takayoshi Ohkubo and Ohno, {Summer Lockett} and Olusanya, {Bolajoko O.} and Omer, {Saad B.} and Opio, {John Nelson} and Orisakwe, {Orish Ebere} and Ortblad, {Katrina F.} and Alberto Ortiz and Otayza, {Maria Lourdes K} and Pain, {Amanda W.} and Pandian, {Jeyaraj D.} and Panelo, {Carlo Irwin} and Jeemon Panniyammakal and Christina Papachristou and {Paternina Caicedo}, {Angel J.} and Patten, {Scott B.} and Patton, {George C.} and Paul, {Vinod K.} and Boris Pavlin and Neil Pearce and Pellegrini, {Carlos A.} and Pereira, {David M.} and Peresson, {Sophie C.} and Rogelio Perez-Padilla and Perez-Ruiz, {Fernando P.} and Norberto Perico and Aslam Pervaiz and Konrad Pesudovs and Peterson, {Carrie B.} and Max Petzold and Phillips, {Bryan K.} and Phillips, {David E.} and Phillips, {Michael R.} and Dietrich Plass and Piel, {Fr{\'e}d{\'e}ric Bernard} and Dan Poenaru and Suzanne Polinder and Svetlana Popova and Poulton, {Richie G.} and Farshad Pourmalek and Dorairaj Prabhakaran and Dima Qato and Quezada, {Amado D.} and Quistberg, {D. Alex} and Felicia Rabito and Anwar Rafay and Kazem Rahimi and Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar and Rahman, {Sajjad U R} and Murugesan Raju and Ivo Rakovac and Rana, {Saleem M.} and Amany Refaat and Giuseppe Remuzzi and Ribeiro, {Antonio L.} and Stefano Ricci and Riccio, {Patricia M.} and Lee Richardson and Richardus, {Jan Hendrik} and Bayard Roberts and Roberts, {D. Allen} and Margaret Robinson and Anna Roca and Alina Rodriguez and David Rojas-Rueda and Luca Ronfani and Robin Room and Roth, {Gregory A.} and Dietrich Rothenbacher and Rothstein, {David H.} and Rowley, {Jane T F} and Nobhojit Roy and Ruhago, {George M.} and Lesley Rushton and Sankar Sambandam and Kjetil S{\o}reide and Saeedi, {Mohammad Yahya} and Sukanta Saha and Ramesh Sahathevan and Sahraian, {Mohammad Ali} and Sahle, {Berhe Weldearegawi} and Salomon, {Joshua A.} and Deborah Salvo and Samonte, {Genesis May J} and Uchechukwu Sampson and Sanabria, {Juan Ramon} and Logan Sandar and Santos, {Itamar S.} and Maheswar Satpathy and Monika Sawhney and Mete Saylan and Peter Scarborough and Ben Sch{\"o}ttker and Schmidt, {J{\"u}rgen C.} and Schneider, {Ione J C} and Schumacher, {Austin E.} and Schwebel, {David C.} and Scott, {James G.} and Sepanlou, {Sadaf G.} and Servan-Mori, {Edson E.} and Katya Shackelford and Amira Shaheen and Saeid Shahraz and Marina Shakh-Nazarova and Siyi Shangguan and Jun She and Sara Sheikhbahaei and Shepard, {Donald S.} and Kenji Shibuya and Yukito Shinohara and Kawkab Shishani and Ivy Shiue and Rupak Shivakoti and Shrime, {Mark G.} and Sigfusdottir, {Inga Dora} and Silberberg, {Donald H.} and Silva, {Andrea P.} and Simard, {Edgar P.} and Shireen Sindi and Singh, {Jasvinder A.} and Lavanya Singh and Edgar Sioson and Vegard Skirbekk and Karen Sliwa and Samuel So and Michael Soljak and Samir Soneji and Soshnikov, {Sergey S.} and Sposato, {Luciano A.} and Sreeramareddy, {Chandrashekhar T.} and Stanaway, {Jeffrey D.} and Stathopoulou, {Vasiliki Kalliopi} and Kyle Steenland and Claudia Stein and Caitlyn Steiner and Antony Stevens and Heidi St{\"o}ckl and Kurt Straif and Konstantinos Stroumpoulis and Lela Sturua and Sunguya, {Bruno F.} and Soumya Swaminathan and Mamta Swaroop and Sykes, {Bryan L.} and Tabb, {Karen M.} and Ken Takahashi and Talongwa, {Roberto Tchio} and Feng Tan and David Tanne and Marcel Tanner and Mohammad Tavakkoli and Ao, {Braden Te} and Teixeira, {Carolina Maria} and Tara Templin and Tenkorang, {Eric Yeboah} and Terkawi, {Abdullah Sulieman} and Thomas, {Bernadette A.} and Thorne-Lyman, {Andrew L.} and Thrift, {Amanda G.} and Thurston, {George D.} and Taavi Tillmann and Tirschwell, {David L.} and Tleyjeh, {Imad M.} and Marcello Tonelli and Fotis Topouzis and Towbin, {Jeffrey A.} and Hideaki Toyoshima and Jefferson Traebert and Tran, {Bach X.} and Thomas Truelsen and Ulises Trujillo and Matias Trillini and Dimbuene, {Zacharie Tsala} and Miltiadis Tsilimbaris and Tuzcu, {E. Murat} and Clotilde Ubeda and Uchendu, {Uche S.} and Ukwaja, {Kingsley N.} and Undurraga, {Eduardo A.} and Vallely, {Andrew J.} and {Van De Vijver}, Steven and {Van Gool}, {Coen H.} and Varakin, {Yuri Y.} and Vasankari, {Tommi J.} and Vasconcelos, {Ana Maria Nogales} and Vavilala, {Monica S.} and N. Venketasubramanian and Lakshmi Vijayakumar and Salvador Villalpando and Violante, {Francesco S.} and Vlassov, {Vasiliy Victorovich} and Wagner, {Gregory R.} and Waller, {Stephen G.} and JianLi Wang and Linhong Wang and XiaoRong Wang and Yanping Wang and Warouw, {Tati Suryati} and Scott Weichenthal and Elisabete Weiderpass and Weintraub, {Robert G.} and Wang Wenzhi and Andrea Werdecker and Wessells, {K. Ryan R} and Ronny Westerman and Whiteford, {Harvey A.} and Wilkinson, {James D.} and Williams, {Thomas Neil} and Woldeyohannes, {Solomon Meseret} and Wolfe, {Charles D A} and Wolock, {Timothy M.} and Woolf, {Anthony D.} and Wong, {John Q.} and Wright, {Jonathan L.} and Sarah Wulf and Brittany Wurtz and Gelin Xu and Yang, {Yang C.} and Yuichiro Yano and Hiroshi Yatsuya and Paul Yip and Naohiro Yonemoto and Yoon, {Seok Jun} and Mustafa Younis and Chuanhua Yu and Jin, {Kim Yun} and {El Sayed Zaki}, Maysaa and Zamakhshary, {Mohammed Fouad} and Hajo Zeeb and Yong Zhang and Yong Zhao and Yingfeng Zheng and Jun Zhu and Shankuan Zhu and David Zonies and Zou, {Xiao Nong} and Zunt, {Joseph R.} and Theo Vos and Lopez, {Alan D.} and Murray, {Christopher J L} and G. Alcal{\'a}-Cerra and S. Balala and Chang, {C. C.} and Gosslin, {R. A.} and H. Hu and N. Karam and N. Sabin and Temesgen, {A. M.}",
year = "2015",
month = "1",
day = "10",
doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2",
language = "English",
volume = "385",
pages = "117--171",
journal = "The Lancet",
issn = "0140-6736",
publisher = "Lancet Publishing Group",
number = "9963",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013

T2 - A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

AU - Correction Naghavi, Mohsen

AU - Wang, Haidong

AU - Lozano, Rafael

AU - Davis, Adrian

AU - Liang, Xiaofeng

AU - Zhou, Maigeng

AU - Vollset, Stein Emil

AU - Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu

AU - Abdalla, Safa

AU - Abd-Allah, Foad

AU - Aziz, Muna I Abdel

AU - Abera, Semaw Ferede

AU - Aboyans, Victor

AU - Abraham, Biju

AU - Abraham, Jerry P.

AU - Abuabara, Katrina E.

AU - Abubakar, Ibrahim

AU - Abu-Raddad, Laith J.

AU - Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E

AU - Achoki, Tom

AU - Adelekan, Ademola

AU - Ademi, Zanfina

AU - Adofo, Koranteng

AU - Adou, Arse Kouablan

AU - Adsuar, Jos C.

AU - Ärnlöv, Johan

AU - Agardh, Emilie Elisabet

AU - Akena, Dickens

AU - Al Khabouri, Mazin J.

AU - Alasfoor, Deena

AU - Albittar, Mohammed

AU - Alegretti, Miguel Angel

AU - Aleman, Alicia V.

AU - Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw

AU - Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael

AU - Alhabib, Samia

AU - Ali, Mohammed K.

AU - Ali, Raghib

AU - Alla, Francois

AU - Al Lami, Faris

AU - Allebeck, Peter

AU - AlMazroa, Mohammad A.

AU - Al-Shahi Salman, Rustam

AU - Alsharif, Ubai

AU - Alvarez, Elena

AU - Alviz-Guzman, Nelson

AU - Amankwaa, Adansi A.

AU - Amare, Azmeraw T.

AU - Ameli, Omid

AU - Amini, Hassan

AU - Ammar, Walid

AU - Anderson, H. Ross

AU - Anderson, Benjamin O.

AU - Antonio, Carl Abelardo T

AU - Anwari, Palwasha

AU - Apfel, Henry

AU - Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu

AU - Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic

AU - Artaman, Al

AU - Asad, Majed Masoud

AU - Asghar, Rana J.

AU - Assadi, Reza

AU - Atkins, Lydia S.

AU - Atkinson, Charles

AU - Badawi, Alaa

AU - Bahit, Maria C.

AU - Bakfalouni, Talal

AU - Balakrishnan, Kalpana

AU - Balalla, Shivanthi

AU - Banerjee, Amitava

AU - Barber, Ryan M.

AU - Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.

AU - Barquera, Simon

AU - Barregard, Lars

AU - Barrero, Lope H.

AU - Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh

AU - Basu, Arindam

AU - Basu, Sanjay

AU - Basulaiman, Mohammed Omar

AU - Beardsley, Justin

AU - Bedi, Neeraj

AU - Beghi, Ettore

AU - Bekele, Tolesa

AU - Bell, Michelle L.

AU - Benjet, Corina

AU - Bennett, Derrick A.

AU - Bensenor, Isabela M.

AU - Benzian, Habib

AU - Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia

AU - Beyene, Tariku Jibat

AU - Bhala, Neeraj

AU - Bhalla, Ashish

AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.

AU - Bikbov, Boris

AU - Abdulhak, Aref Bin

AU - Biryukov, Stan

AU - Blore, Jed D.

AU - Blyth, Fiona M.

AU - Bohensky, Megan A.

AU - Borges, Guilherme

AU - Bose, Dipan

AU - Boufous, Soufiane

AU - Bourne, Rupert R.

AU - Boyers, Lindsay N.

AU - Brainin, Michael

AU - Brauer, Michael

AU - Brayne, Carol E G

AU - Brazinova, Alexandra

AU - Breitborde, Nicholas

AU - Brenner, Hermann

AU - Briggs, Adam D M

AU - Brown, Jonathan C.

AU - Brugha, Traolach S.

AU - Buckle, Geoffrey C.

AU - Bui, Linh Ngoc

AU - Bukhman, Gene

AU - Burch, Michael

AU - Campos Nonato, Ismael Ricardo

AU - Carabin, He

AU - Cárdenas, Rosario

AU - Carapetis, Jonathan

AU - Carpenter, David O.

AU - Caso, Valeria

AU - Castanda-Orjuela, Carlos A.

AU - Castro, Ruben Estanislao

AU - Catalá-López, Ferrán

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PY - 2015/1/10

Y1 - 2015/1/10

N2 - Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

AB - Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2

DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61682-2

M3 - Article

VL - 385

SP - 117

EP - 171

JO - The Lancet

JF - The Lancet

SN - 0140-6736

IS - 9963

ER -