Highly predictive survival nomogram after upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma

Claudio Jeldres, Maxine Sun, Giovanni Lughezzani, Hendrik Isbarn, Shahrokh F. Shariat, Hugues Widmer, Markus Graefen, Francesco Montorsi, Paul Perrotte, Pierre I. Karakiewicz

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

58 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Nephroureterectomy is the surgical standard of care for patients with upper urinary-tract urothelial carcinoma. The objectives of the current study were to identify the most informative predictors of cancer-specific mortality after nephroureterectomy, to devise an algorithm capable of predicting the individual probability of cancer-specific mortality, and to compare its prognostic accuracy to that of the International Union Against Cancer (UICC) staging system. METHODS: Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, the authors identified 5918 patients who had been treated with nephroureterectomy. Within the development cohort (n = 2959), multivariate Cox regression models predicting cancer-specific mortality were fitted by using age, stage, nodal status, sex, grade, race, type of surgery (nephroureterectomy with or without bladder-cuff removal), and tumor location (renal pelvis vs ureter). Backward variable elimination according to the Akaike information criterion identified the most accurate and parsimonious model. Model validation and calibration were performed within the external validation cohort (n = 2959). External validation was also applied to the UICC staging system. RESULTS: The 5-year freedom from cancer-specific mortality rates in both the development and external validation cohorts was 77.3%. The most informative and parsimonious nomogram for cancer-specific-mortality-free survival relied on age, pT and pN stages, and tumor grade. In external validation, nomogram prediction of 5-year cancer-specific-mortality-free rate was 75.4% accurate and was significantly better (P <.001) than the UICC staging system (64.8%). CONCLUSIONS: The current nomogram is capable of predicting the prognosis in patients with upper urinary-tract urothelial carcinoma treated by nephroureterectomy with better accuracy than the UICC staging system. The authors recommend the application of this nomogram to routine clinical practice when counseling or making clinical decisions.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3774-3784
Number of pages11
JournalCancer
Volume116
Issue number16
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 15 2010

Fingerprint

Nomograms
Urinary Tract
Carcinoma
Survival
Mortality
Neoplasm Staging
Neoplasms
Kidney Pelvis
Standard of Care
Ureter
Proportional Hazards Models
Calibration
Counseling
Epidemiology
Urinary Bladder
Databases

Keywords

  • Nephroureterectomy
  • Nomogram
  • Survival
  • Upper urinary-tract urothelial carcinoma

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cancer Research
  • Oncology
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Jeldres, C., Sun, M., Lughezzani, G., Isbarn, H., Shariat, S. F., Widmer, H., ... Karakiewicz, P. I. (2010). Highly predictive survival nomogram after upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma. Cancer, 116(16), 3774-3784. https://doi.org/10.1002/cncr.25122

Highly predictive survival nomogram after upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma. / Jeldres, Claudio; Sun, Maxine; Lughezzani, Giovanni; Isbarn, Hendrik; Shariat, Shahrokh F.; Widmer, Hugues; Graefen, Markus; Montorsi, Francesco; Perrotte, Paul; Karakiewicz, Pierre I.

In: Cancer, Vol. 116, No. 16, 15.08.2010, p. 3774-3784.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Jeldres, C, Sun, M, Lughezzani, G, Isbarn, H, Shariat, SF, Widmer, H, Graefen, M, Montorsi, F, Perrotte, P & Karakiewicz, PI 2010, 'Highly predictive survival nomogram after upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma', Cancer, vol. 116, no. 16, pp. 3774-3784. https://doi.org/10.1002/cncr.25122
Jeldres C, Sun M, Lughezzani G, Isbarn H, Shariat SF, Widmer H et al. Highly predictive survival nomogram after upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma. Cancer. 2010 Aug 15;116(16):3774-3784. https://doi.org/10.1002/cncr.25122
Jeldres, Claudio ; Sun, Maxine ; Lughezzani, Giovanni ; Isbarn, Hendrik ; Shariat, Shahrokh F. ; Widmer, Hugues ; Graefen, Markus ; Montorsi, Francesco ; Perrotte, Paul ; Karakiewicz, Pierre I. / Highly predictive survival nomogram after upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma. In: Cancer. 2010 ; Vol. 116, No. 16. pp. 3774-3784.
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abstract = "BACKGROUND: Nephroureterectomy is the surgical standard of care for patients with upper urinary-tract urothelial carcinoma. The objectives of the current study were to identify the most informative predictors of cancer-specific mortality after nephroureterectomy, to devise an algorithm capable of predicting the individual probability of cancer-specific mortality, and to compare its prognostic accuracy to that of the International Union Against Cancer (UICC) staging system. METHODS: Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, the authors identified 5918 patients who had been treated with nephroureterectomy. Within the development cohort (n = 2959), multivariate Cox regression models predicting cancer-specific mortality were fitted by using age, stage, nodal status, sex, grade, race, type of surgery (nephroureterectomy with or without bladder-cuff removal), and tumor location (renal pelvis vs ureter). Backward variable elimination according to the Akaike information criterion identified the most accurate and parsimonious model. Model validation and calibration were performed within the external validation cohort (n = 2959). External validation was also applied to the UICC staging system. RESULTS: The 5-year freedom from cancer-specific mortality rates in both the development and external validation cohorts was 77.3{\%}. The most informative and parsimonious nomogram for cancer-specific-mortality-free survival relied on age, pT and pN stages, and tumor grade. In external validation, nomogram prediction of 5-year cancer-specific-mortality-free rate was 75.4{\%} accurate and was significantly better (P <.001) than the UICC staging system (64.8{\%}). CONCLUSIONS: The current nomogram is capable of predicting the prognosis in patients with upper urinary-tract urothelial carcinoma treated by nephroureterectomy with better accuracy than the UICC staging system. The authors recommend the application of this nomogram to routine clinical practice when counseling or making clinical decisions.",
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AU - Widmer, Hugues

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