How many people are living with undiagnosed HIV infection? an estimate for Italy, based on surveillance data

Alessia Mammone, Patrizio Pezzotti, Vincenza Regine, Laura Camoni, Vincenzo Puro, Giuseppe Ippolito, Barbara Suligoi, Enrico Girardi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:: To estimate the size and characteristics of the undiagnosed HIV population in Italy in 2012 applying a method that does not require surveillance data from the beginning of the HIV epidemic. METHODS:: We adapted the method known as “London method 2”; the undiagnosed population is estimated as the ratio between the estimated annual number of simultaneous HIV/clinical AIDS diagnoses and the expected annual progression rate to clinical AIDS in the undiagnosed HIV population; the latter is estimated using the CD4-count distribution of asymptomatic subjects reported to surveillance. Under-reporting/ascertainment of new diagnoses was also considered. Also, the total number of PLWHIV was estimated. RESULTS:: The undiagnosed HIV population in 2012 was 13,729 (95%CI: 12,152–15,592), 15,102 (13,366–17,151) and 16,475 (14,581–18,710), assuming no under-reporting/ascertainment, 10% and 20% of under-reporting/ascertainment, respectively. The percentage of undiagnosed cases was higher among HIV people aged

Original languageEnglish
JournalAIDS (London, England)
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - Jan 23 2016

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Immunology and Allergy
  • Immunology
  • Infectious Diseases

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