IER-START nomogram for prediction of three-month unfavorable outcome after thrombectomy for stroke

Manuel Cappellari, Salvatore Mangiafico, Valentina Saia, Giovanni Pracucci, Sergio Nappini, Patrizia Nencini, Daniel Konda, Fabrizio Sallustio, Stefano Vallone, Andrea Zini, Sandra Bracco, Rossana Tassi, Mauro Bergui, Paolo Cerrato, Antonio Pitrone, Francesco Grillo, Andrea Saletti, Alessandro De Vito, Roberto Gasparotti, Mauro MagoniEdoardo Puglielli, Alfonsina Casalena, Francesco Causin, Claudio Baracchini, Lucio Castellan, Laura Malfatto, Roberto Menozzi, Umberto Scoditti, Chiara Comelli, Enrica Duc, Alessio Comai, Enrica Franchini, Mirco Cosottini, Michelangelo Mancuso, Simone Peschillo, Manuela De Michele, Andrea Giorgianni, Maria Luisa Delodovici, Elvis Lafe, Maria F Denaro, Nicola Burdi, Saverio Internò, Nicola Cavasin, Adriana Critelli, Luigi Chiumarulo, Marco Petruzzellis, Marco Doddi, Antonio Carolei, William Auteri, Alfredo Petrone, Riccardo Padolecchia, Tiziana Tassinari, Marco Pavia, Paolo Invernizzi, Gianni Turcato, Stefano Forlivesi, Elisa Francesca Maria Ciceri, Bruno Bonetti, Domenico Inzitari, Danilo Toni

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The applicability of the current models for predicting functional outcome after thrombectomy in strokes with large vessel occlusion (LVO) is affected by a moderate predictive performance.

AIMS: We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram with pre- and post-treatment factors for prediction of the probability of unfavorable outcome in patients with anterior and posterior LVO who received bridging therapy or direct thrombectomy <6 h of stroke onset.

METHODS: We conducted a cohort study on patients data collected prospectively in the Italian Endovascular Registry (IER). Unfavorable outcome was defined as three-month modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score 3-6. Six predictors, including NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, age, pre-stroke mRS score, bridging therapy or direct thrombectomy, grade of recanalization according to the thrombolysis in cerebral ischemia (TICI) grading system, and onset-to-end procedure time were identified a priori by three stroke experts. To generate the IER-START, the pre-established predictors were entered into a logistic regression model. The discriminative performance of the model was assessed by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC).

RESULTS: A total of 1802 patients with complete data for generating the IER-START was randomly dichotomized into training ( n = 1219) and test ( n = 583) sets. The AUC-ROC of IER-START was 0.838 (95% confidence interval [CI]): 0.816-0.869) in the training set, and 0.820 (95% CI: 0.786-0.854) in the test set.

CONCLUSIONS: The IER-START nomogram is the first prognostic model developed and validated in the largest population of stroke patients currently candidates to thrombectomy which reliably calculates the probability of three-month unfavorable outcome.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1747493019837756
JournalInternational Journal of Stroke
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - Mar 25 2019

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Cappellari, M., Mangiafico, S., Saia, V., Pracucci, G., Nappini, S., Nencini, P., Konda, D., Sallustio, F., Vallone, S., Zini, A., Bracco, S., Tassi, R., Bergui, M., Cerrato, P., Pitrone, A., Grillo, F., Saletti, A., De Vito, A., Gasparotti, R., ... Toni, D. (2019). IER-START nomogram for prediction of three-month unfavorable outcome after thrombectomy for stroke. International Journal of Stroke, 1747493019837756. https://doi.org/10.1177/1747493019837756