Inaccuracy of available surgical risk scores to predict outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve replacement

Fabrizio D'Ascenzo, Flavia Ballocca, Claudio Moretti, Marco Barbanti, Valeria Gasparetto, Marco Mennuni, Maurizio D'Amico, Federico Conrotto, Stefano Salizzoni, Pierluigi Omedè, Chiara Colaci, Giuseppe B. Zoccai, Mario Lupo, Giuseppe Tarantini, Massimo Napodanno, Patrizia Presbitero, Imad Sheiban, Corrado Tamburino, Sebastiano Marra, Fiorenzo Gaita

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

39 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Introduction Despite encouraging short-term and midterm results, transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) interventions are still burdened from high rates of adverse events, stressing the need for accurate predictive risk instruments. We compared available surgical risk scores to describe unfavorable outcomes after TAVI. Methods The Age, Creatinine, and Ejection fraction (ACEF) score, the logistic Euroscore, and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Mortality score (STS) were appraised for their independent power of prediction and for their accuracy (Cindex) to predict 30-day and medium-term mortality, according to the Valve Academic Research Consortium. Results Nine hundred and sixty-two patients were included. All the scores demonstrated a moderate positive correlation. The closest correlation was observed between the STS score and Euroscore. After logistic regression analysis, STS score and Logistic Euroscore provided independent prediction for short-term all-cause mortality [PU0.02, odds ratio (OR) 1.1; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.31 and PU0.027, OR 1.03; 95% CI 1.01-1.405]. For in-hospital complications, only STS score performed significantly (PU0.005, OR 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.06). ACEF, Euroscore, and STS score showed low accuracy for 30-day all-cause mortality (area under the curve 0.6, 0.44-0.75; vs. 0.53, 0.42-0.61; vs. 0.62, 0.52-0.71, respectively), whereas STS score performed better for in-hospital complications (0.59, 0.55-0.64). Moreover, after Cox-multivariate adjustments, only ACEF score was near to significance to predict all-cause mortality at mid-term (OR 1.7; 0.8-2.9; PU0.058), showing the highest accuracy (0.63, 0.55-0.71). Conclusion In TAVI patients, ACEF score, STS score and Logistic Euroscore provided only a moderate correlation and a low accuracy both for 30-day and medium-term outcomes. Dedicated scores are needed to properly tailor time and kind of approach.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)894-898
Number of pages5
JournalJournal of Cardiovascular Medicine
Volume14
Issue number12
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2013

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Mortality
Creatinine
Odds Ratio
Confidence Intervals
Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement
Area Under Curve
Surgeons
Logistic Models
Regression Analysis
Research

Keywords

  • Short-term and mid-term outcomes
  • Surgical risk scores
  • Transcatheter aortic valve implantation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine

Cite this

D'Ascenzo, F., Ballocca, F., Moretti, C., Barbanti, M., Gasparetto, V., Mennuni, M., ... Gaita, F. (2013). Inaccuracy of available surgical risk scores to predict outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve replacement. Journal of Cardiovascular Medicine, 14(12), 894-898. https://doi.org/10.2459/JCM.0b013e3283638e26

Inaccuracy of available surgical risk scores to predict outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve replacement. / D'Ascenzo, Fabrizio; Ballocca, Flavia; Moretti, Claudio; Barbanti, Marco; Gasparetto, Valeria; Mennuni, Marco; D'Amico, Maurizio; Conrotto, Federico; Salizzoni, Stefano; Omedè, Pierluigi; Colaci, Chiara; Zoccai, Giuseppe B.; Lupo, Mario; Tarantini, Giuseppe; Napodanno, Massimo; Presbitero, Patrizia; Sheiban, Imad; Tamburino, Corrado; Marra, Sebastiano; Gaita, Fiorenzo.

In: Journal of Cardiovascular Medicine, Vol. 14, No. 12, 12.2013, p. 894-898.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

D'Ascenzo, F, Ballocca, F, Moretti, C, Barbanti, M, Gasparetto, V, Mennuni, M, D'Amico, M, Conrotto, F, Salizzoni, S, Omedè, P, Colaci, C, Zoccai, GB, Lupo, M, Tarantini, G, Napodanno, M, Presbitero, P, Sheiban, I, Tamburino, C, Marra, S & Gaita, F 2013, 'Inaccuracy of available surgical risk scores to predict outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve replacement', Journal of Cardiovascular Medicine, vol. 14, no. 12, pp. 894-898. https://doi.org/10.2459/JCM.0b013e3283638e26
D'Ascenzo, Fabrizio ; Ballocca, Flavia ; Moretti, Claudio ; Barbanti, Marco ; Gasparetto, Valeria ; Mennuni, Marco ; D'Amico, Maurizio ; Conrotto, Federico ; Salizzoni, Stefano ; Omedè, Pierluigi ; Colaci, Chiara ; Zoccai, Giuseppe B. ; Lupo, Mario ; Tarantini, Giuseppe ; Napodanno, Massimo ; Presbitero, Patrizia ; Sheiban, Imad ; Tamburino, Corrado ; Marra, Sebastiano ; Gaita, Fiorenzo. / Inaccuracy of available surgical risk scores to predict outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve replacement. In: Journal of Cardiovascular Medicine. 2013 ; Vol. 14, No. 12. pp. 894-898.
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abstract = "Introduction Despite encouraging short-term and midterm results, transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) interventions are still burdened from high rates of adverse events, stressing the need for accurate predictive risk instruments. We compared available surgical risk scores to describe unfavorable outcomes after TAVI. Methods The Age, Creatinine, and Ejection fraction (ACEF) score, the logistic Euroscore, and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Mortality score (STS) were appraised for their independent power of prediction and for their accuracy (Cindex) to predict 30-day and medium-term mortality, according to the Valve Academic Research Consortium. Results Nine hundred and sixty-two patients were included. All the scores demonstrated a moderate positive correlation. The closest correlation was observed between the STS score and Euroscore. After logistic regression analysis, STS score and Logistic Euroscore provided independent prediction for short-term all-cause mortality [PU0.02, odds ratio (OR) 1.1; 95{\%} confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.31 and PU0.027, OR 1.03; 95{\%} CI 1.01-1.405]. For in-hospital complications, only STS score performed significantly (PU0.005, OR 1.05; 95{\%} CI 1.01-1.06). ACEF, Euroscore, and STS score showed low accuracy for 30-day all-cause mortality (area under the curve 0.6, 0.44-0.75; vs. 0.53, 0.42-0.61; vs. 0.62, 0.52-0.71, respectively), whereas STS score performed better for in-hospital complications (0.59, 0.55-0.64). Moreover, after Cox-multivariate adjustments, only ACEF score was near to significance to predict all-cause mortality at mid-term (OR 1.7; 0.8-2.9; PU0.058), showing the highest accuracy (0.63, 0.55-0.71). Conclusion In TAVI patients, ACEF score, STS score and Logistic Euroscore provided only a moderate correlation and a low accuracy both for 30-day and medium-term outcomes. Dedicated scores are needed to properly tailor time and kind of approach.",
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T1 - Inaccuracy of available surgical risk scores to predict outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve replacement

AU - D'Ascenzo, Fabrizio

AU - Ballocca, Flavia

AU - Moretti, Claudio

AU - Barbanti, Marco

AU - Gasparetto, Valeria

AU - Mennuni, Marco

AU - D'Amico, Maurizio

AU - Conrotto, Federico

AU - Salizzoni, Stefano

AU - Omedè, Pierluigi

AU - Colaci, Chiara

AU - Zoccai, Giuseppe B.

AU - Lupo, Mario

AU - Tarantini, Giuseppe

AU - Napodanno, Massimo

AU - Presbitero, Patrizia

AU - Sheiban, Imad

AU - Tamburino, Corrado

AU - Marra, Sebastiano

AU - Gaita, Fiorenzo

PY - 2013/12

Y1 - 2013/12

N2 - Introduction Despite encouraging short-term and midterm results, transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) interventions are still burdened from high rates of adverse events, stressing the need for accurate predictive risk instruments. We compared available surgical risk scores to describe unfavorable outcomes after TAVI. Methods The Age, Creatinine, and Ejection fraction (ACEF) score, the logistic Euroscore, and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Mortality score (STS) were appraised for their independent power of prediction and for their accuracy (Cindex) to predict 30-day and medium-term mortality, according to the Valve Academic Research Consortium. Results Nine hundred and sixty-two patients were included. All the scores demonstrated a moderate positive correlation. The closest correlation was observed between the STS score and Euroscore. After logistic regression analysis, STS score and Logistic Euroscore provided independent prediction for short-term all-cause mortality [PU0.02, odds ratio (OR) 1.1; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.31 and PU0.027, OR 1.03; 95% CI 1.01-1.405]. For in-hospital complications, only STS score performed significantly (PU0.005, OR 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.06). ACEF, Euroscore, and STS score showed low accuracy for 30-day all-cause mortality (area under the curve 0.6, 0.44-0.75; vs. 0.53, 0.42-0.61; vs. 0.62, 0.52-0.71, respectively), whereas STS score performed better for in-hospital complications (0.59, 0.55-0.64). Moreover, after Cox-multivariate adjustments, only ACEF score was near to significance to predict all-cause mortality at mid-term (OR 1.7; 0.8-2.9; PU0.058), showing the highest accuracy (0.63, 0.55-0.71). Conclusion In TAVI patients, ACEF score, STS score and Logistic Euroscore provided only a moderate correlation and a low accuracy both for 30-day and medium-term outcomes. Dedicated scores are needed to properly tailor time and kind of approach.

AB - Introduction Despite encouraging short-term and midterm results, transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) interventions are still burdened from high rates of adverse events, stressing the need for accurate predictive risk instruments. We compared available surgical risk scores to describe unfavorable outcomes after TAVI. Methods The Age, Creatinine, and Ejection fraction (ACEF) score, the logistic Euroscore, and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Mortality score (STS) were appraised for their independent power of prediction and for their accuracy (Cindex) to predict 30-day and medium-term mortality, according to the Valve Academic Research Consortium. Results Nine hundred and sixty-two patients were included. All the scores demonstrated a moderate positive correlation. The closest correlation was observed between the STS score and Euroscore. After logistic regression analysis, STS score and Logistic Euroscore provided independent prediction for short-term all-cause mortality [PU0.02, odds ratio (OR) 1.1; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.31 and PU0.027, OR 1.03; 95% CI 1.01-1.405]. For in-hospital complications, only STS score performed significantly (PU0.005, OR 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.06). ACEF, Euroscore, and STS score showed low accuracy for 30-day all-cause mortality (area under the curve 0.6, 0.44-0.75; vs. 0.53, 0.42-0.61; vs. 0.62, 0.52-0.71, respectively), whereas STS score performed better for in-hospital complications (0.59, 0.55-0.64). Moreover, after Cox-multivariate adjustments, only ACEF score was near to significance to predict all-cause mortality at mid-term (OR 1.7; 0.8-2.9; PU0.058), showing the highest accuracy (0.63, 0.55-0.71). Conclusion In TAVI patients, ACEF score, STS score and Logistic Euroscore provided only a moderate correlation and a low accuracy both for 30-day and medium-term outcomes. Dedicated scores are needed to properly tailor time and kind of approach.

KW - Short-term and mid-term outcomes

KW - Surgical risk scores

KW - Transcatheter aortic valve implantation

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