Incremental prognostic utility of coronary CT angiography for asymptomatic patients based upon extent and severity of coronary artery calcium: Results from the COronary CT Angiography EvaluatioN For Clinical Outcomes InteRnational Multicenter (CONFIRM) Study

Iksung Cho, Hyuk Jae Chang, Briain O. Hartaigh, Sanghoon Shin, Ji Min Sung, Fay Y. Lin, Stephan Achenbach, Ran Heo, Daniel S. Berman, Matthew J. Budoff, Tracy Q. Callister, Mouaz H. Al-Mallah, Filippo Cademartiri, Kavitha Chinnaiyan, Benjamin J W Chow, Allison M. Dunning, Augustin DeLago, Todd C. Villines, Martin Hadamitzky, Joerg HausleiterJonathon Leipsic, Leslee J. Shaw, Philipp A. Kaufmann, Ricardo C. Cury, Gudrun Feuchtner, Yong Jin Kim, Erica Maffei, Gilbert Raff, Gianluca Pontone, Daniele Andreini, James K. Min

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Aim Prior evidence observed no predictive utility of coronary CT angiography (CCTA) over the coronary artery calcium score (CACS) and the Framingham risk score (FRS), among asymptomatic individuals. Whether the prognostic value of CCTA differs for asymptomatic patients, when stratified by CACS severity, remains unknown. Methods and results From a 12-centre, 6-country observational registry, 3217 asymptomatic individuals without known coronary artery disease (CAD) underwent CACS and CCTA. Individuals were categorized by CACS as: 0-10, 11-100, 101-400, 401-1000, >1000. For CCTA analysis, the number of obstructive vessels - as defined by the per-patient presence of a ≥50% luminal stenosis - was used to grade the extent and severity of CAD. The incremental prognostic value of CCTA over and above FRS was measured by the likelihood ratio (LR) χ2, C-statistic, and continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI) for prediction, discrimination, and reclassification of all-cause mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction. During a median follow-up of 24 months (25th-75th percentile, 17-30 months), there were 58 composite end-points. The incremental value of CCTA over FRS was demonstrated in individuals with CACS >100 (LRχ2, 25.34; increment in C-statistic, 0.24; NRI, 0.62, all P <0.001), but not among those with CACS ≤100 (all P > 0.05). For subgroups with CACS >100, the utility of CCTA for predicting the study end-point was evident among individuals whose CACS ranged from 101 to 400; the observed predictive benefit attenuated with increasing CACS. Conclusion Coronary CT angiography provides incremental prognostic utility for prediction of mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction for asymptomatic individuals with moderately high CACS, but not for lower or higher CACS.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)501-508
Number of pages8
JournalEuropean Heart Journal
Volume36
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 21 2015

Keywords

  • Asymptomatic
  • Coronary artery calcium scoring
  • Coronary computed tomographic angiography
  • Framingham risk score
  • Prognostic

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine

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