TY - JOUR
T1 - Long-term outcomes and predictive ability of non-invasive scoring systems in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease
AU - Younes, Ramy
AU - Caviglia, Gian Paolo
AU - Govaere, Olivier
AU - Rosso, Chiara
AU - Armandi, Angelo
AU - Sanavia, Tiziana
AU - Pennisi, Grazia
AU - Liguori, Antonio
AU - Francione, Paolo
AU - Gallego-Durán, Rocío
AU - Ampuero, Javier
AU - Garcia Blanco, Maria J.
AU - Aller, Rocio
AU - Tiniakos, Dina
AU - Burt, Alastair
AU - David, Ezio
AU - Vecchio, Fabio M.
AU - Maggioni, Marco
AU - Cabibi, Daniela
AU - Pareja, María Jesús
AU - Zaki, Marco Y.W.
AU - Grieco, Antonio
AU - Fracanzani, Anna L.
AU - Valenti, Luca
AU - Miele, Luca
AU - Fariselli, Piero
AU - Petta, Salvatore
AU - Romero-Gomez, Manuel
AU - Anstee, Quentin M.
AU - Bugianesi, Elisabetta
N1 - Funding Information:
This study has been supported by the EPoS (Elucidating Pathways of Steatohepatitis) consortium funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Program of the European Union under Grant Agreement 634413 and the Newcastle NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. The authors are contributing members of The European NAFLD Registry. The study was also supported by the Italian Ministry of Health, grant RF-2016-02364358 (Ricerca Finalizzata, Ministero della Salute), and the Italian Ministry for Education, University and Research (Ministero dell'Istruzione, dell'Universit? e della Ricerca - MIUR) under the programme ?Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2018 ? 2022? Project code D15D18000410001.
Funding Information:
This study has been supported by the EPoS (Elucidating Pathways of Steatohepatitis) consortium funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Program of the European Union under Grant Agreement 634413 and the Newcastle NIHR Biomedical Research Centre . The authors are contributing members of The European NAFLD Registry. The study was also supported by the Italian Ministry of Health , grant RF-2016-02364358 (Ricerca Finalizzata, Ministero della Salute), and the Italian Ministry for Education, University and Research (Ministero dell’Istruzione, dell’Università e della Ricerca - MIUR) under the programme “Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2018 – 2022” Project code D15D18000410001.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 European Association for the Study of the Liver
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Background & Aims: Non-invasive scoring systems (NSS) are used to identify patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) who are at risk of advanced fibrosis, but their reliability in predicting long-term outcomes for hepatic/extrahepatic complications or death and their concordance in cross-sectional and longitudinal risk stratification remain uncertain. Methods: The most common NSS (NFS, FIB-4, BARD, APRI) and the Hepamet fibrosis score (HFS) were assessed in 1,173 European patients with NAFLD from tertiary centres. Performance for fibrosis risk stratification and for the prediction of long-term hepatic/extrahepatic events, hepatocarcinoma (HCC) and overall mortality were evaluated in terms of AUC and Harrell's c-index. For longitudinal data, NSS-based Cox proportional hazard models were trained on the whole cohort with repeated 5-fold cross-validation, sampling for testing from the 607 patients with all NSS available. Results: Cross-sectional analysis revealed HFS as the best performer for the identification of significant (F0-1 vs. F2-4, AUC = 0.758) and advanced (F0-2 vs. F3-4, AUC = 0.805) fibrosis, while NFS and FIB-4 showed the best performance for detecting histological cirrhosis (range AUCs 0.85-0.88). Considering longitudinal data (follow-up between 62 and 110 months), NFS and FIB-4 were the best at predicting liver-related events (c-indices>0.7), NFS for HCC (c-index = 0.9 on average), and FIB-4 and HFS for overall mortality (c-indices >0.8). All NSS showed limited performance (c-indices <0.7) for extrahepatic events. Conclusions: Overall, NFS, HFS and FIB-4 outperformed APRI and BARD for both cross-sectional identification of fibrosis and prediction of long-term outcomes, confirming that they are useful tools for the clinical management of patients with NAFLD at increased risk of fibrosis and liver-related complications or death. Lay summary: Non-invasive scoring systems are increasingly being used in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease to identify those at risk of advanced fibrosis and hence clinical complications. Herein, we compared various non-invasive scoring systems and identified those that were best at identifying risk, as well as those that were best for the prediction of long-term outcomes, such as liver-related events, liver cancer and death.
AB - Background & Aims: Non-invasive scoring systems (NSS) are used to identify patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) who are at risk of advanced fibrosis, but their reliability in predicting long-term outcomes for hepatic/extrahepatic complications or death and their concordance in cross-sectional and longitudinal risk stratification remain uncertain. Methods: The most common NSS (NFS, FIB-4, BARD, APRI) and the Hepamet fibrosis score (HFS) were assessed in 1,173 European patients with NAFLD from tertiary centres. Performance for fibrosis risk stratification and for the prediction of long-term hepatic/extrahepatic events, hepatocarcinoma (HCC) and overall mortality were evaluated in terms of AUC and Harrell's c-index. For longitudinal data, NSS-based Cox proportional hazard models were trained on the whole cohort with repeated 5-fold cross-validation, sampling for testing from the 607 patients with all NSS available. Results: Cross-sectional analysis revealed HFS as the best performer for the identification of significant (F0-1 vs. F2-4, AUC = 0.758) and advanced (F0-2 vs. F3-4, AUC = 0.805) fibrosis, while NFS and FIB-4 showed the best performance for detecting histological cirrhosis (range AUCs 0.85-0.88). Considering longitudinal data (follow-up between 62 and 110 months), NFS and FIB-4 were the best at predicting liver-related events (c-indices>0.7), NFS for HCC (c-index = 0.9 on average), and FIB-4 and HFS for overall mortality (c-indices >0.8). All NSS showed limited performance (c-indices <0.7) for extrahepatic events. Conclusions: Overall, NFS, HFS and FIB-4 outperformed APRI and BARD for both cross-sectional identification of fibrosis and prediction of long-term outcomes, confirming that they are useful tools for the clinical management of patients with NAFLD at increased risk of fibrosis and liver-related complications or death. Lay summary: Non-invasive scoring systems are increasingly being used in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease to identify those at risk of advanced fibrosis and hence clinical complications. Herein, we compared various non-invasive scoring systems and identified those that were best at identifying risk, as well as those that were best for the prediction of long-term outcomes, such as liver-related events, liver cancer and death.
KW - APRI
KW - BARD
KW - FIB-4
KW - HFS
KW - NASH
KW - NFS
KW - NSS
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U2 - 10.1016/j.jhep.2021.05.008
DO - 10.1016/j.jhep.2021.05.008
M3 - Article
C2 - 34090928
AN - SCOPUS:85110636948
VL - 75
SP - 786
EP - 794
JO - Journal of Hepatology
JF - Journal of Hepatology
SN - 0168-8278
IS - 4
ER -