Abstract
Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8–61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2–86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4–24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0–10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7–13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1–8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. Interpretation GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1813-1850 |
| Number of pages | 38 |
| Journal | The Lancet |
| Volume | 388 |
| Issue number | 10053 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Oct 8 2016 |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Medicine(all)
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Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries : a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. / Lim, Stephen S.; Allen, Kate; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Dandona, Lalit; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Fullman, Nancy; Gething, Peter W.; Goldberg, Ellen M.; Hay, Simon I.; Holmberg, Mollie; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kutz, Michael J.; Larson, Heidi J.; Liang, Xiaofeng; Lopez, Alan D.; Lozano, Rafael; McNellan, Claire R.; Mokdad, Ali H.; Mooney, Meghan D.; Naghavi, Mohsen; Olsen, Helen E.; Pigott, David M.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Vos, Theo; Wang, Haidong; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M.; Abraham, Biju; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Achoki, Tom; Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko; Afshin, Ashkan; Agarwal, Arnav; Agrawal, Anurag; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad; Ahmadieh, Hamid; Ahmed, Kedir Yimam; Akanda, Ali Shafqat; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Akinyemiju, Tomi F.; Akseer, Nadia; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Uzma; Alasfoor, Deena; AlBuhairan, Fadia S.; Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed; Aldridge, Robert William; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Ali, Raghib; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alkhateeb, Mohammad AB; Alla, François; Allebeck, Peter; Allen, Christine; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Altirkawi, Khalid A.; Martin, Elena Alvarez; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Amberbir, Alemayehu; Amegah, Adeladza Kofi; Amini, Heresh; Ammar, Walid; Amrock, Stephen Marc; Andersen, Hjalte H.; Anderson, Benjamin O.; Anderson, Gregory M.; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Ärnlöv, Johan; Artaman, Al; Asayesh, Hamid; Asghar, Rana Jawad; Atique, Suleman; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur; Awasthi, Ashish; Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala; Azzopardi, Peter; Bacha, Umar; Badawi, Alaa; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Banerjee, Amitava; Barac, Aleksandra; Barber, Ryan; Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.; Bärnighausen, Till; Barrero, Lope H.; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Basu, Sanjay; Bayou, Tigist Assefa; Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad; Beardsley, Justin; Bedi, Neeraj; Beghi, Ettore; Béjot, Yannick; Bell, Michelle L.; Bello, Aminu K.; Bennett, Derrick A.; Bensenor, Isabela M.; Benzian, Habib; Berhane, Adugnaw; Bernabé, Eduardo; Bernal, Oscar Alberto; Betsu, Balem Demtsu; Beyene, Addisu Shunu; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhatt, Samir; Biadgilign, Sibhatu; Bienhoff, Kelly A.; Bikbov, Boris; Binagwaho, Agnes; Bisanzio, Donal; Bjertness, Espen; Blore, Jed; Bourne, Rupert R A; Brainin, Michael; Brauer, Michael; Brazinova, Alexandra; Breitborde, Nicholas J K; Broday, David M.; Brugha, Traolach S.; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Butt, Zahid A.; Cahill, Leah E.; Campos-Nonato, Ismael Ricardo; Campuzano, Julio Cesar; Carabin, Hélène; Cárdenas, Rosario; Carrero, Juan Jesus; Carter, Austin; Casey, Daniel; Caso, Valeria; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.; Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Cecílio, Pedro; Chang, Hsing Yi; Chang, Jung Chen; Charlson, Fiona J.; Che, Xuan; Chen, Alan Zian; Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia; Chibalabala, Mirriam; Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe; Choi, Jee Young Jasmine; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Christensen, Hanne; Ciobanu, Liliana G.; Cirillo, Massimo; Coates, Matthew M.; Coggeshall, Megan; Cohen, Aaron J.; Cooke, Graham S.; Cooper, Cyrus; Cooper, Leslie Trumbull; Cowie, Benjamin C.; Crump, John A.; Damtew, Solomon Abrha; Dandona, Rakhi; Dargan, Paul I.; Neves, José das; Davis, Adrian C.; Davletov, Kairat; de Castro, E. Filipa; De Leo, Diego; Degenhardt, Louisa; Del Gobbo, Liana C.; Deribe, Kebede; Derrett, Sarah; Des Jarlais, Don C.; Deshpande, Aniruddha; deVeber, Gabrielle A.; Dey, Subhojit; Dharmaratne, Samath D.; Dhillon, Preet K.; Ding, Eric L.; Dorsey, E. Ray; Doyle, Kerrie E.; Driscoll, Tim R.; Duan, Leilei; Dubey, Manisha; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow; Ebrahimi, Hedyeh; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich; Erskine, Holly E.; Eshrati, Babak; Esteghamati, Alireza; Fahimi, Saman; Farid, Talha A.; Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sa; Faro, André; Farvid, Maryam S.; Farzadfar, Farshad; Feigin, Valery L.; Felicio, Manuela Mendonca; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad; Fernandes, Jefferson G.; Fernandes, Joao C.; Ferrari, Alize J.; Fischer, Florian; Fitchett, Joseph R A; Fitzmaurice, Christina; Foigt, Nataliya; Foreman, Kyle; Fowkes, F. Gerry R; Franca, Elisabeth Barboza; Franklin, Richard C.; Fraser, Maya; Friedman, Joseph; Frostad, Joseph; Fürst, Thomas; Gabbe, Belinda; Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L.; Gebre, Teshome; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde; Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay; Gebru, Alemseged Aregay; Gessner, Bradford D.; Gillum, Richard F.; Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed; Giref, Ababi Zergaw; Giroud, Maurice; Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo; Godwin, William; Gona, Philimon; Goodridge, Amador; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Gotay, Carolyn C.; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N.; Graetz, Nicholas; Greenwell, Karen Fern; Griswold, Max; Guo, Yuming; Gupta, Rahul; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Vipin; Gutiérrez, Reyna A.; Gyawali, Bishal; Haagsma, Juanita A.; Haakenstad, Annie; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Haile, Demewoz; Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa; Halasa, Yara A.; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hamidi, Samer; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hankey, Graeme J.; Harb, Hilda L.; Haro, Josep Maria; Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz; Hoek, Hans W.; Horino, Masako; Horita, Nobuyuki; Hosgood, H. Dean; Hoy, Damian G.; Htet, Aung Soe; Hu, Guoqing; Huang, Hsiang; Iburg, Kim Moesgaard; Idrisov, Bulat T.; Inoue, Manami; Islami, Farhad; Jacobs, Troy A.; Jacobsen, Kathryn H.; Jahanmehr, Nader; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B.; James, Peter; Jansen, Henrica A F M; Javanbakht, Mehdi; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra; Jee, Sun Ha; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Ying; Jibat, Tariku; Jin, Ye; Jonas, Jost B.; Kabir, Zubair; Kalkonde, Yogeshwar; Kamal, Ritul; Kan, Haidong; Kandel, Amit; Karch, André; Karema, Corine Kakizi; Karimkhani, Chante; Karunapema, Palitha; Kasaeian, Amir; Kassebaum, Nicholas J.; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kayibanda, Jeanne Françoise; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kemmer, Laura; Kemp, Andrew Haddon; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Keren, Andre; Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khan, Abdur Rahman; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khan, Gulfaraz; Khang, Young Ho; Khoja, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer; Khosravi, Ardeshir; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Cho il; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Sungroul; Kim, Yun Jin; Kimokoti, Ruth W.; Kissoon, Niranjan; Kivipelto, Miia; Knibbs, Luke D.; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kolte, Dhaval; Kosen, Soewarta; Kotsakis, Georgios A.; Koul, Parvaiz A.; Koyanagi, Ai; Kravchenko, Michael; Krueger, Hans; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Kuchenbecker, Ricardo S.; Kuipers, Ernst J.; Kulikoff, Xie Rachel; Kulkarni, Veena S.; Kumar, G. Anil; Kwan, Gene F.; Kyu, Hmwe H.; Lal, Aparna; Lal, Dharmesh Kumar; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Langan, Sinead M.; Larsson, Anders; Laryea, Dennis Odai; Latif, Asma Abdul; Leasher, Janet L.; Leigh, James; Leinsalu, Mall; Leung, Janni; Leung, Ricky; Levi, Miriam; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; Lind, Margaret; Linn, Shai; Lipshultz, Steven E.; Liu, Patrick Y.; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K.; Lo, Loon Tzian; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Lotufo, Paulo A.; Lucas, Robyn M.; Lunevicius, Raimundas; El Razek, Mohammed Magdy Abd; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Mahdavi, Mahdi; Majdan, Marek; Majeed, Azeem; Malekzadeh, Reza; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Mapoma, Chabila C.; Margolis, David Joel; Martin, Randall V.; Martinez-Raga, Jose; Masiye, Felix; Mason-Jones, Amanda J.; Massano, João; Matzopoulos, Richard; Mayosi, Bongani M.; McGrath, John J.; McKee, Martin; Meaney, Peter A.; Mehari, Alem; Mekonnen, Alemayehu B.; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Memiah, Peter; Memish, Ziad A.; Mendoza, Walter; Mensink, Gert B M; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J.; Mesfin, Yonatan Moges; Mhimbira, Francis Apolinary; Micha, Renata; Miller, Ted R.; Mills, Edward J.; Mirarefin, Mojde; Misganaw, Awoke; Mitchell, Philip B.; Mock, Charles N.; Mohammadi, Alireza; Mohammed, Shafiu; Monasta, Lorenzo; de la Cruz Monis, Jonathan; Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montañez; Montico, Marcella; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Morawska, Lidia; Mori, Rintaro; Mueller, Ulrich O.; Murdoch, Michele E.; Murimira, Brighton; Murray, Joseph; Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana; Murthy, Srinivas; Musa, Kamarul Imran; Nachega, Jean B.; Nagel, Gabriele; Naidoo, Kovin S.; Naldi, Luigi; Nangia, Vinay; Neal, Bruce; Nejjari, Chakib; Newton, Charles R.; Newton, John N.; Ngalesoni, Frida Namnyak; Nguhiu, Peter; Nguyen, Grant; Le Nguyen, Quyen; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Pete, Patrick Martial Nkamedjie; Nolte, Sandra; Nomura, Marika; Norheim, Ole F.; Norrving, Bo; Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oh, In Hwan; Oladimeji, Olanrewaju; Olivares, Pedro R.; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun; Opio, John Nelson; Oren, Eyal; Ortiz, Alberto; Osborne, Richard H.; Ota, Erika; Owolabi, Mayowa O.; PA, Mahesh; Park, Eun Kee; Park, Hye Youn; Parry, Charles D.; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Patel, Tejas; Patel, Vikram; Caicedo, Angel J Paternina; Patil, Snehal T.; Patten, Scott B.; Patton, George C.; Paudel, Deepak; Pedro, João Mário; Pereira, David M.; Perico, Norberto; Pesudovs, Konrad; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael Robert; Piel, Frédéric B.; Pillay, Julian David; Pinho, Christine; Pishgar, Farhad; Polinder, Suzanne; Poulton, Richie G.; Pourmalek, Farshad; Qorbani, Mostafa; Rabiee, Rynaz H S; Radfar, Amir; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Mahfuzar; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Rai, Rajesh Kumar; Rajsic, Sasa; Raju, Murugesan; Ram, Usha; Rana, Saleem M.; Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal; Ranganathan, Kavitha; Rao, Puja C.; Refaat, Amany H.; Reitsma, Marissa B.; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Resnikoff, Serge; Ribeiro, Antonio L.; Blancas, Maria Jesus Rios; Roba, Hirbo Shore; Roberts, Bayard; Rodriguez, Alina; Rojas-Rueda, David; Ronfani, Luca; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Roth, Gregory A.; Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Roy, Ambuj; Roy, Nobhojit; Sackey, Ben Benasco; Sagar, Rajesh; Saleh, Muhammad Muhammad; Sanabria, Juan R.; Santomauro, Damian F.; Santos, Itamar S.; Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo; Sartorius, Benn; Satpathy, Maheswar; Savic, Miloje; Sawhney, Monika; Sawyer, Susan M.; Schmidhuber, Josef; Schmidt, Maria Inês; Schneider, Ione J C; Schutte, Aletta E.; Schwebel, David C.; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Servan-Mori, Edson E.; Shackelford, Katya; Shaheen, Amira; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Levy, Teresa Shamah; Sharma, Rajesh; She, Jun; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shen, Jiabin; Sheth, Kevin N.; Shey, Muki; Shi, Peilin; Shibuya, Kenji; Shigematsu, Mika; Shin, Min Jeong; Shiri, Rahman; Shishani, Kawkab; Shiue, Ivy; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Silpakit, Naris; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Silverberg, Jonathan I.; Simard, Edgar P.; Sindi, Shireen; Singh, Abhishek; Singh, Gitanjali M.; Singh, Jasvinder A.; Singh, Om Prakash; Singh, Prashant Kumar; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sligar, Amber; Soneji, Samir; Søreide, Kjetil; Sorensen, Reed J D; Soriano, Joan B.; Soshnikov, Sergey; Sposato, Luciano A.; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.; Stahl, Hans Christian; Stanaway, Jeffrey D.; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki; Steckling, Nadine; Steel, Nicholas; Stein, Dan J.; Steiner, Caitlyn; Stöckl, Heidi; Stranges, Saverio; Strong, Mark; Sun, Jiandong; Sunguya, Bruno F.; Sur, Patrick; Swaminathan, Soumya; Sykes, Bryan L.; Szoeke, Cassandra E I; Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael; Tabb, Karen M.; Talongwa, Roberto Tchio; Tarawneh, Mohammed Rasoul; Tavakkoli, Mohammad; Taye, Bineyam; Taylor, Hugh R.; Tedla, Bemnet Amare; Tefera, Worku; Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw; Tekle, Dejen Yemane; Shifa, Girma Temam; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Tessema, Gizachew Assefa; Thakur, J. 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In: The Lancet, Vol. 388, No. 10053, 08.10.2016, p. 1813-1850.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries
T2 - a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
AU - Lim, Stephen S.
AU - Allen, Kate
AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.
AU - Dandona, Lalit
AU - Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.
AU - Fullman, Nancy
AU - Gething, Peter W.
AU - Goldberg, Ellen M.
AU - Hay, Simon I.
AU - Holmberg, Mollie
AU - Kinfu, Yohannes
AU - Kutz, Michael J.
AU - Larson, Heidi J.
AU - Liang, Xiaofeng
AU - Lopez, Alan D.
AU - Lozano, Rafael
AU - McNellan, Claire R.
AU - Mokdad, Ali H.
AU - Mooney, Meghan D.
AU - Naghavi, Mohsen
AU - Olsen, Helen E.
AU - Pigott, David M.
AU - Salomon, Joshua A.
AU - Vos, Theo
AU - Wang, Haidong
AU - Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu
AU - Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
AU - Abbafati, Cristiana
AU - Abbas, Kaja M.
AU - Abd-Allah, Foad
AU - Abdulle, Abdishakur M.
AU - Abraham, Biju
AU - Abubakar, Ibrahim
AU - Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
AU - Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E
AU - Abyu, Gebre Yitayih
AU - Achoki, Tom
AU - Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi
AU - Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi
AU - Afanvi, Kossivi Agbelenko
AU - Afshin, Ashkan
AU - Agarwal, Arnav
AU - Agrawal, Anurag
AU - Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad
AU - Ahmadieh, Hamid
AU - Ahmed, Kedir Yimam
AU - Akanda, Ali Shafqat
AU - Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola
AU - Akinyemiju, Tomi F.
AU - Akseer, Nadia
AU - Al-Aly, Ziyad
AU - Alam, Khurshid
AU - Alam, Uzma
AU - Alasfoor, Deena
AU - AlBuhairan, Fadia S.
AU - Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed
AU - Aldridge, Robert William
AU - Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw
AU - Ali, Raghib
AU - Alkerwi, Ala'a
AU - Alkhateeb, Mohammad AB
AU - Alla, François
AU - Allebeck, Peter
AU - Allen, Christine
AU - Al-Raddadi, Rajaa
AU - Altirkawi, Khalid A.
AU - Martin, Elena Alvarez
AU - Alvis-Guzman, Nelson
AU - Amare, Azmeraw T.
AU - Amberbir, Alemayehu
AU - Amegah, Adeladza Kofi
AU - Amini, Heresh
AU - Ammar, Walid
AU - Amrock, Stephen Marc
AU - Andersen, Hjalte H.
AU - Anderson, Benjamin O.
AU - Anderson, Gregory M.
AU - Antonio, Carl Abelardo T
AU - Anwari, Palwasha
AU - Ärnlöv, Johan
AU - Artaman, Al
AU - Asayesh, Hamid
AU - Asghar, Rana Jawad
AU - Atique, Suleman
AU - Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G Arthur
AU - Awasthi, Ashish
AU - Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala
AU - Azzopardi, Peter
AU - Bacha, Umar
AU - Badawi, Alaa
AU - Balakrishnan, Kalpana
AU - Banerjee, Amitava
AU - Barac, Aleksandra
AU - Barber, Ryan
AU - Barker-Collo, Suzanne L.
AU - Bärnighausen, Till
AU - Barrero, Lope H.
AU - Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh
AU - Basu, Sanjay
AU - Bayou, Tigist Assefa
AU - Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad
AU - Beardsley, Justin
AU - Bedi, Neeraj
AU - Beghi, Ettore
AU - Béjot, Yannick
AU - Bell, Michelle L.
AU - Bello, Aminu K.
AU - Bennett, Derrick A.
AU - Bensenor, Isabela M.
AU - Benzian, Habib
AU - Berhane, Adugnaw
AU - Bernabé, Eduardo
AU - Bernal, Oscar Alberto
AU - Betsu, Balem Demtsu
AU - Beyene, Addisu Shunu
AU - Bhala, Neeraj
AU - Bhatt, Samir
AU - Biadgilign, Sibhatu
AU - Bienhoff, Kelly A.
AU - Bikbov, Boris
AU - Binagwaho, Agnes
AU - Bisanzio, Donal
AU - Bjertness, Espen
AU - Blore, Jed
AU - Bourne, Rupert R A
AU - Brainin, Michael
AU - Brauer, Michael
AU - Brazinova, Alexandra
AU - Breitborde, Nicholas J K
AU - Broday, David M.
AU - Brugha, Traolach S.
AU - Buchbinder, Rachelle
AU - Butt, Zahid A.
AU - Cahill, Leah E.
AU - Campos-Nonato, Ismael Ricardo
AU - Campuzano, Julio Cesar
AU - Carabin, Hélène
AU - Cárdenas, Rosario
AU - Carrero, Juan Jesus
AU - Carter, Austin
AU - Casey, Daniel
AU - Caso, Valeria
AU - Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.
AU - Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo
AU - Catalá-López, Ferrán
AU - Cavalleri, Fiorella
AU - Cecílio, Pedro
AU - Chang, Hsing Yi
AU - Chang, Jung Chen
AU - Charlson, Fiona J.
AU - Che, Xuan
AU - Chen, Alan Zian
AU - Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia
AU - Chibalabala, Mirriam
AU - Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe
AU - Choi, Jee Young Jasmine
AU - Chowdhury, Rajiv
AU - Christensen, Hanne
AU - Ciobanu, Liliana G.
AU - Cirillo, Massimo
AU - Coates, Matthew M.
AU - Coggeshall, Megan
AU - Cohen, Aaron J.
AU - Cooke, Graham S.
AU - Cooper, Cyrus
AU - Cooper, Leslie Trumbull
AU - Cowie, Benjamin C.
AU - Crump, John A.
AU - Damtew, Solomon Abrha
AU - Dandona, Rakhi
AU - Dargan, Paul I.
AU - Neves, José das
AU - Davis, Adrian C.
AU - Davletov, Kairat
AU - de Castro, E. Filipa
AU - De Leo, Diego
AU - Degenhardt, Louisa
AU - Del Gobbo, Liana C.
AU - Deribe, Kebede
AU - Derrett, Sarah
AU - Des Jarlais, Don C.
AU - Deshpande, Aniruddha
AU - deVeber, Gabrielle A.
AU - Dey, Subhojit
AU - Dharmaratne, Samath D.
AU - Dhillon, Preet K.
AU - Ding, Eric L.
AU - Dorsey, E. Ray
AU - Doyle, Kerrie E.
AU - Driscoll, Tim R.
AU - Duan, Leilei
AU - Dubey, Manisha
AU - Duncan, Bruce Bartholow
AU - Ebrahimi, Hedyeh
AU - Endries, Aman Yesuf
AU - Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich
AU - Erskine, Holly E.
AU - Eshrati, Babak
AU - Esteghamati, Alireza
AU - Fahimi, Saman
AU - Farid, Talha A.
AU - Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sa
AU - Faro, André
AU - Farvid, Maryam S.
AU - Farzadfar, Farshad
AU - Feigin, Valery L.
AU - Felicio, Manuela Mendonca
AU - Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad
AU - Fernandes, Jefferson G.
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PY - 2016/10/8
Y1 - 2016/10/8
N2 - Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8–61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2–86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4–24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0–10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7–13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1–8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. Interpretation GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
AB - Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8–61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2–86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4–24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0–10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7–13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1–8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. Interpretation GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31467-2
DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31467-2
M3 - Article
VL - 388
SP - 1813
EP - 1850
JO - The Lancet
JF - The Lancet
SN - 0140-6736
IS - 10053
ER -