Multi-institutional validation of a new renal cancer-specific survival nomogram

Pierre I. Karakiewicz, Alberto Briganti, Felix K H Chun, Quoc Dien Trinh, Paul Perrotte, Vincenzo Ficarra, Luca Cindolo, Alexandre De La Taille, Jacques Tostain, Peter F A Mulders, Laurent Salomon, Richard Zigeuner, Tommaso Prayer-Galetti, Denis Chautard, Antoine Valeri, Eric Lechevallier, Jean Luc Descotes, Herve Lang, Arnaud Mejean, Jean Jacques Patard

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Purpose: We tested the hypothesis that the prediction of renal cancer-specific survival can be improved if traditional predictor variables are used within a prognostic nomogram. Patients and Methods: Two cohorts of patients treated with either radical or partial nephrectomy for renal cortical tumors were used: one (n = 2,530) for nomogram development and for internal validation (200 bootstrap resamples), and a second (n = 1,422) for external validation. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses modeled the 2002 TNM stages, tumor size, Fuhrman grade, histologic subtype, local symptoms, age, and sex. The accuracy of the nomogram was compared with an established staging scheme. Results: Cancer-specific mortality was observed in 598 (23.6%) patients, whereas 200 (7.9%) died as a result of other causes. Follow-up ranged from 0.1 to 286 months (median, 38.8 months). External validation of the nomogram at 1, 2, 5, and 10 years after nephrectomy revealed predictive accuracy of 87.8%, 89.2%, 86.7%, and 88.8%, respectively. Conversely, the alternative staging scheme predicting at 2 and 5 years was less accurate, as evidenced by 86.1% (P = .006) and 83.9% (P = .02) estimates. Conclusion: The new nomogram is more contemporary, provides predictions that reach further in time and, compared with its alternative, which predicts at 2 and 5 years, generates 3.1% and 2.8% more accurate predictions, respectively.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1316-1322
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Clinical Oncology
Volume25
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 10 2007

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cancer Research
  • Oncology

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