Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Optimal end points in phase 2 trials evaluating salvage therapy for metastatic urothelial carcinoma are necessary to identify promising drugs, particularly immunotherapeutics, where response and progression-free survival may be unreliable. We developed a nomogram using data from phase 2 trials of historical agents to estimate the 12-month overall survival (OS) for patients to which observed survival of nonrandomized data sets receiving immunotherapies could be compared.
PATIENTS AND METHODS: Survival and data for major prognostic factors were obtained from phase 2 trials: hemoglobin, performance status, liver metastasis, treatment-free interval, and albumin. A nomogram was developed to estimate 12-month OS. Patients were randomly allotted to discovery:validation data sets in a 2:1 ratio. Calibration plots were constructed in the validation data set and data bootstrapped to assess performance. The nomogram was tested on external nonrandomized cohorts of patients receiving pemetrexed and atezolizumab.
RESULTS: Data were available from 340 patients receiving sunitinib, everolimus, docetaxel + vandetanib, docetaxel + placebo, pazopanib, paclitaxel, or docetaxel. Calibration and prognostic ability were acceptable (c index = 0.634; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.596-0.652). Observed 12-month survival for patients receiving pemetrexed (n = 127, 23.5%; 95% CI, 16.2-31.7) was similar to nomogram-predicted survival (19%; 95% CI, 16.5-21.5; P > .05), while observed results with atezolizumab (n = 403, 39.0%; 95% CI, 34.1-43.9) exceeded predicted results (24.6%; 95% CI, 23.4-25.8; P < .001).
CONCLUSION: This nomogram may be a useful tool to interpret results of nonrandomized phase 2 trials of salvage therapy for metastatic urothelial carcinoma by assessing the OS contributions of drug intervention independent of prognostic variables.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | e961-e967 |
| Journal | Clinical Genitourinary Cancer |
| Volume | 16 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Aug 2018 |
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Nomogram to Assess the Survival Benefit of New Salvage Agents for Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma in the Era of Immunotherapy. / Sonpavde, Guru; Pond, Gregory Russell; Rosenberg, Jonathan E; Choueiri, Toni K; Bellmunt, Joaquim; Regazzi, Ashley Marie; Mullane, Stephanie A; Necchi, Andrea; Raggi, Daniele; Lee, Jae-Lyun; Lee, Soonil; Simpson, Joe; Derleth, Christina Louise; Lin, Shih-Wen; Bajorin, Dean F.
In: Clinical Genitourinary Cancer, Vol. 16, No. 4, 08.2018, p. e961-e967.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Nomogram to Assess the Survival Benefit of New Salvage Agents for Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma in the Era of Immunotherapy
AU - Sonpavde, Guru
AU - Pond, Gregory Russell
AU - Rosenberg, Jonathan E
AU - Choueiri, Toni K
AU - Bellmunt, Joaquim
AU - Regazzi, Ashley Marie
AU - Mullane, Stephanie A
AU - Necchi, Andrea
AU - Raggi, Daniele
AU - Lee, Jae-Lyun
AU - Lee, Soonil
AU - Simpson, Joe
AU - Derleth, Christina Louise
AU - Lin, Shih-Wen
AU - Bajorin, Dean F
N1 - Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
PY - 2018/8
Y1 - 2018/8
N2 - INTRODUCTION: Optimal end points in phase 2 trials evaluating salvage therapy for metastatic urothelial carcinoma are necessary to identify promising drugs, particularly immunotherapeutics, where response and progression-free survival may be unreliable. We developed a nomogram using data from phase 2 trials of historical agents to estimate the 12-month overall survival (OS) for patients to which observed survival of nonrandomized data sets receiving immunotherapies could be compared.PATIENTS AND METHODS: Survival and data for major prognostic factors were obtained from phase 2 trials: hemoglobin, performance status, liver metastasis, treatment-free interval, and albumin. A nomogram was developed to estimate 12-month OS. Patients were randomly allotted to discovery:validation data sets in a 2:1 ratio. Calibration plots were constructed in the validation data set and data bootstrapped to assess performance. The nomogram was tested on external nonrandomized cohorts of patients receiving pemetrexed and atezolizumab.RESULTS: Data were available from 340 patients receiving sunitinib, everolimus, docetaxel + vandetanib, docetaxel + placebo, pazopanib, paclitaxel, or docetaxel. Calibration and prognostic ability were acceptable (c index = 0.634; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.596-0.652). Observed 12-month survival for patients receiving pemetrexed (n = 127, 23.5%; 95% CI, 16.2-31.7) was similar to nomogram-predicted survival (19%; 95% CI, 16.5-21.5; P > .05), while observed results with atezolizumab (n = 403, 39.0%; 95% CI, 34.1-43.9) exceeded predicted results (24.6%; 95% CI, 23.4-25.8; P < .001).CONCLUSION: This nomogram may be a useful tool to interpret results of nonrandomized phase 2 trials of salvage therapy for metastatic urothelial carcinoma by assessing the OS contributions of drug intervention independent of prognostic variables.
AB - INTRODUCTION: Optimal end points in phase 2 trials evaluating salvage therapy for metastatic urothelial carcinoma are necessary to identify promising drugs, particularly immunotherapeutics, where response and progression-free survival may be unreliable. We developed a nomogram using data from phase 2 trials of historical agents to estimate the 12-month overall survival (OS) for patients to which observed survival of nonrandomized data sets receiving immunotherapies could be compared.PATIENTS AND METHODS: Survival and data for major prognostic factors were obtained from phase 2 trials: hemoglobin, performance status, liver metastasis, treatment-free interval, and albumin. A nomogram was developed to estimate 12-month OS. Patients were randomly allotted to discovery:validation data sets in a 2:1 ratio. Calibration plots were constructed in the validation data set and data bootstrapped to assess performance. The nomogram was tested on external nonrandomized cohorts of patients receiving pemetrexed and atezolizumab.RESULTS: Data were available from 340 patients receiving sunitinib, everolimus, docetaxel + vandetanib, docetaxel + placebo, pazopanib, paclitaxel, or docetaxel. Calibration and prognostic ability were acceptable (c index = 0.634; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.596-0.652). Observed 12-month survival for patients receiving pemetrexed (n = 127, 23.5%; 95% CI, 16.2-31.7) was similar to nomogram-predicted survival (19%; 95% CI, 16.5-21.5; P > .05), while observed results with atezolizumab (n = 403, 39.0%; 95% CI, 34.1-43.9) exceeded predicted results (24.6%; 95% CI, 23.4-25.8; P < .001).CONCLUSION: This nomogram may be a useful tool to interpret results of nonrandomized phase 2 trials of salvage therapy for metastatic urothelial carcinoma by assessing the OS contributions of drug intervention independent of prognostic variables.
U2 - 10.1016/j.clgc.2018.03.016
DO - 10.1016/j.clgc.2018.03.016
M3 - Article
VL - 16
SP - e961-e967
JO - Clinical Genitourinary Cancer
JF - Clinical Genitourinary Cancer
SN - 1558-7673
IS - 4
ER -