Abstract
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 452-462 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | JACC: Heart Failure |
| Volume | 6 |
| Issue number | 6 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2018 |
Keywords
- heart failure
- mortality
- prognosis
- risk score
- creatinine
- adult
- age
- aged
- all cause mortality
- area under the curve
- Article
- Candesartan in Heart Failure Assessment of Reduction in Mortality
- clinical feature
- controlled study
- creatinine blood level
- Eplerenone in Mild Patients Hospitalization and Survival Study in Heart Failure
- female
- follow up
- Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Streptochinasi nell Infarto Miocardico Heart Failure
- Heart Failure and A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise Training
- heart left ventricle ejection fraction
- hospitalization
- human
- intermethod comparison
- ischemic heart disease
- major clinical study
- male
- measurement accuracy
- measurement precision
- medical history
- Meta analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure
- Metabolic Exercise Cardiac Kidney Index
- middle aged
- prediction
- priority journal
- prognostic assessment
- Prognostic Risk Score
- register
- Seattle Heart Failure Model
- survival
- systolic blood pressure
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Performance of Prognostic Risk Scores in Chronic Heart Failure Patients Enrolled in the European Society of Cardiology Heart Failure Long-Term Registry. / Canepa, M.; Fonseca, C.; Chioncel, O. et al.
In: JACC: Heart Failure, Vol. 6, No. 6, 2018, p. 452-462.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Performance of Prognostic Risk Scores in Chronic Heart Failure Patients Enrolled in the European Society of Cardiology Heart Failure Long-Term Registry
AU - Canepa, M.
AU - Fonseca, C.
AU - Chioncel, O.
AU - Laroche, C.
AU - Crespo-Leiro, M.G.
AU - Coats, A.J.S.
AU - Mebazaa, A.
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N1 - Cited By :6 Export Date: 30 January 2019 Correspondence Address: Maggioni, A.P.; ANMCO Research Center, Via La Marmora, 34, Italy; email: amaggioni@escardio.org Chemicals/CAS: creatinine, 19230-81-0, 60-27-5 References: Howlett, J.G., Should we perform a heart failure risk score? (2013) Circulation Heart failure, 6, pp. 4-5; Levy, W.C., Mozaffarian, D., Linker, D.T., The Seattle Heart Failure Model: prediction of survival in heart failure (2006) Circulation, 113, pp. 1424-1433; Aaronson, K.D., Cowger, J., Heart failure prognostic models: why bother? 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Evidence from 12,440 patients of the ESC Heart Failure Long-Term Registry (2013) Eur J Heart Fail, 15, pp. 1173-1184; Canepa, M., Straburzynska-Migaj, E., Drozdz, J., Characteristics, treatments and 1-year prognosis of hospitalized and ambulatory heart failure patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the European Society of Cardiology Heart Failure Long-Term Registry (2018) Eur J Heart Fail, 20, pp. 100-110; Pocock, S.J., Wang, D., Pfeffer, M.A., Predictors of mortality and morbidity in patients with chronic heart failure (2006) Eur Heart J, 27, pp. 65-75; Agostoni, P., Corra, U., Cattadori, G., Metabolic exercise test data combined with cardiac and kidney indexes, the MECKI score: a multiparametric approach to heart failure prognosis (2013) Int J Cardiol, 167, pp. 2710-2718; O'Connor, C.M., Whellan, D.J., Wojdyla, D., Factors related to morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic heart failure with systolic dysfunction: the HF-ACTION predictive risk score model (2012) Circ Heart Fail, 5, pp. 63-71; Collier, T.J., Pocock, S.J., McMurray, J.J., The impact of eplerenone at different levels of risk in patients with systolic heart failure and mild symptoms: insight from a novel risk score for prognosis derived from the EMPHASIS-HF trial (2013) Eur Heart J, 34, pp. 2823-2829; Senni, M., Parrella, P., De Maria, R., Predicting heart failure outcome from cardiac and comorbid conditions: the 3C-HF score (2013) Int J Cardiol, 163, pp. 206-211; Kober, L., Thune, J.J., Nielsen, J.C., Defibrillator implantation in patients with nonischemic systolic heart failure (2016) N Engl J Med, 375, pp. 1221-1230; McMurray, J.J., Packer, M., Desai, A.S., Angiotensin-neprilysin inhibition versus enalapril in heart failure (2014) N Engl J Med, 371, pp. 993-1004; Halliday, B.P., Cleland, J.G.F., Goldberger, J.J., Prasad, S.K., Personalizing risk stratification for sudden death in dilated cardiomyopathy: the past, present, and future (2017) Circulation, 136, pp. 215-231; Mozaffarian, D., Anker, S.D., Anand, I., Prediction of mode of death in heart failure: the Seattle Heart Failure Model (2007) Circulation, 116, pp. 392-398; Shen, L., Jhund, P.S., Petrie, M.C., Declining risk of sudden death in heart failure (2017) N Engl J Med, 377, pp. 41-51; Vaduganathan, M., Patel, R.B., Michel, A., Mode of death in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (2017) J Am Coll Cardiol, 69, pp. 556-569; Moons, K.G., Royston, P., Vergouwe, Y., Grobbee, D.E., Altman, D.G., Prognosis and prognostic research: what, why, and how? (2009) BMJ, 338, p. b375; Lagu, T., Pekow, P.S., Shieh, M.S., Validation and comparison of seven mortality prediction models for hospitalized patients with acute decompensated heart failure (2016) Circ Heart Fail, 9, p. e002912; Maggioni, A.P., Orso, F., Calabria, S., The real-world evidence of heart failure: findings from 41 413 patients of the ARNO database (2016) Eur J Heart Fail, 18, pp. 402-410; Pfeffer, M.A., Swedberg, K., Granger, C.B., Effects of candesartan on mortality and morbidity in patients with chronic heart failure: the CHARM-Overall programme (2003) Lancet, 362, pp. 759-766; The survival of patients with heart failure with preserved or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction: an individual patient data meta-analysis (2012) Eur Heart J, 33, pp. 1750-1757; Packer, M., O'Connor, C.M., Ghali, J.K., Effect of amlodipine on morbidity and mortality in severe chronic heart failure. 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PY - 2018
Y1 - 2018
N2 - Objectives: This study compared the performance of major heart failure (HF) risk models in predicting mortality and examined their utilization using data from a contemporary multinational registry. Background: Several prognostic risk scores have been developed for ambulatory HF patients, but their precision is still inadequate and their use limited. Methods: This registry enrolled patients with HF seen in participating European centers between May 2011 and April 2013. The following scores designed to estimate 1- to 2-year all-cause mortality were calculated in each participant: CHARM (Candesartan in Heart Failure-Assessment of Reduction in Mortality), GISSI-HF (Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Streptochinasi nell'Infarto Miocardico-Heart Failure), MAGGIC (Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure), and SHFM (Seattle Heart Failure Model). Patients with hospitalized HF (n = 6,920) and ambulatory HF patients missing any variable needed to estimate each score (n = 3,267) were excluded, leaving a final sample of 6,161 patients. Results: At 1-year follow-up, 5,653 of 6,161 patients (91.8%) were alive. The observed-to-predicted survival ratios (CHARM: 1.10, GISSI-HF: 1.08, MAGGIC: 1.03, and SHFM: 0.98) suggested some overestimation of mortality by all scores except the SHFM. Overprediction occurred steadily across levels of risk using both the CHARM and the GISSI-HF, whereas the SHFM underpredicted mortality in all risk groups except the highest. The MAGGIC showed the best overall accuracy (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.743), similar to the GISSI-HF (AUC = 0.739; p = 0.419) but better than the CHARM (AUC = 0.729; p = 0.068) and particularly better than the SHFM (AUC = 0.714; p = 0.018). Less than 1% of patients received a prognostic estimate from their enrolling physician. Conclusions: Performance of prognostic risk scores is still limited and physicians are reluctant to use them in daily practice. The need for contemporary, more precise prognostic tools should be considered. © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation
AB - Objectives: This study compared the performance of major heart failure (HF) risk models in predicting mortality and examined their utilization using data from a contemporary multinational registry. Background: Several prognostic risk scores have been developed for ambulatory HF patients, but their precision is still inadequate and their use limited. Methods: This registry enrolled patients with HF seen in participating European centers between May 2011 and April 2013. The following scores designed to estimate 1- to 2-year all-cause mortality were calculated in each participant: CHARM (Candesartan in Heart Failure-Assessment of Reduction in Mortality), GISSI-HF (Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Streptochinasi nell'Infarto Miocardico-Heart Failure), MAGGIC (Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure), and SHFM (Seattle Heart Failure Model). Patients with hospitalized HF (n = 6,920) and ambulatory HF patients missing any variable needed to estimate each score (n = 3,267) were excluded, leaving a final sample of 6,161 patients. Results: At 1-year follow-up, 5,653 of 6,161 patients (91.8%) were alive. The observed-to-predicted survival ratios (CHARM: 1.10, GISSI-HF: 1.08, MAGGIC: 1.03, and SHFM: 0.98) suggested some overestimation of mortality by all scores except the SHFM. Overprediction occurred steadily across levels of risk using both the CHARM and the GISSI-HF, whereas the SHFM underpredicted mortality in all risk groups except the highest. The MAGGIC showed the best overall accuracy (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.743), similar to the GISSI-HF (AUC = 0.739; p = 0.419) but better than the CHARM (AUC = 0.729; p = 0.068) and particularly better than the SHFM (AUC = 0.714; p = 0.018). Less than 1% of patients received a prognostic estimate from their enrolling physician. Conclusions: Performance of prognostic risk scores is still limited and physicians are reluctant to use them in daily practice. The need for contemporary, more precise prognostic tools should be considered. © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation
KW - heart failure
KW - mortality
KW - prognosis
KW - risk score
KW - creatinine
KW - adult
KW - age
KW - aged
KW - all cause mortality
KW - area under the curve
KW - Article
KW - Candesartan in Heart Failure Assessment of Reduction in Mortality
KW - clinical feature
KW - controlled study
KW - creatinine blood level
KW - Eplerenone in Mild Patients Hospitalization and Survival Study in Heart Failure
KW - female
KW - follow up
KW - Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Streptochinasi nell Infarto Miocardico Heart Failure
KW - Heart Failure and A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise Training
KW - heart left ventricle ejection fraction
KW - hospitalization
KW - human
KW - intermethod comparison
KW - ischemic heart disease
KW - major clinical study
KW - male
KW - measurement accuracy
KW - measurement precision
KW - medical history
KW - Meta analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure
KW - Metabolic Exercise Cardiac Kidney Index
KW - middle aged
KW - prediction
KW - priority journal
KW - prognostic assessment
KW - Prognostic Risk Score
KW - register
KW - Seattle Heart Failure Model
KW - survival
KW - systolic blood pressure
U2 - 10.1016/j.jchf.2018.02.001
DO - 10.1016/j.jchf.2018.02.001
M3 - Article
VL - 6
SP - 452
EP - 462
JO - JACC: Heart Failure
JF - JACC: Heart Failure
SN - 2213-1779
IS - 6
ER -