Predicting Individual Survival After Hepatectomy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: a Novel Nomogram from the “HCC East & West Study Group”

Guido Torzilli, Matteo Donadon, Jacques Belghiti, Norihiro Kokudo, Tadatoshi Takayama, Alessandro Ferrero, Gennaro Nuzzo, Jean Nicolas Vauthey, Michael A. Choti, Eduardo de Santibanes, Masatoshi Makuuchi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Introductions: Different staging systems have been devised for patients undergoing resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with disparate results. The aim of this study was to create a new nomogram to predict individual survival after hepatectomy for HCC. Methods: Based on the “Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Eastern & Western Experiences Network,” data from 2046 patients who underwent HCC resections at ten centers were reviewed. Patient survival was analyzed with Cox-regression analysis to construct a unique nomogram and contour plots to predict survival. Results: The nomograms built on the multivariate analyses, which showed that the independent predictors were tumor size, tumor number, vascular invasion, cirrhosis, preoperative bilirubin value, and esophageal varices, showed good calibration and discriminatory abilities with C-index value of 0.62 (95 % CI, 0.59–0.69) and 0.61 (95 % CI, 0.56–0.64) for overall and disease-free survival, respectively. The 5-year survival contour plots showed that the presence of vascular invasion was associated with decreased survival, regardless of the tumor number or size. Cirrhosis and varices were equally associated with decreased survival, according to the tumor number or size. Conclusions: These nomograms accurately predict individual prognosis after HCC resection and support an expansion of the selection criteria for resection. They offer useful guidance to clinicians for individual survival prediction.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-9
Number of pages9
JournalJournal of Gastrointestinal Surgery
DOIs
Publication statusAccepted/In press - Mar 22 2016

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Keywords

  • Hepatectomy
  • Hepatocellular carcinoma
  • Nomogram
  • Survival

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Surgery
  • Gastroenterology

Cite this

Torzilli, G., Donadon, M., Belghiti, J., Kokudo, N., Takayama, T., Ferrero, A., Nuzzo, G., Vauthey, J. N., Choti, M. A., de Santibanes, E., & Makuuchi, M. (Accepted/In press). Predicting Individual Survival After Hepatectomy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: a Novel Nomogram from the “HCC East & West Study Group”. Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11605-016-3132-0