Predictive value for cardiovascular events of common carotid intima media thickness and its rate of change in individuals at high cardiovascular risk – Results from the PROG-IMT collaboration

on behalf of the PROG-IMT study group

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Aims Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Methods and results From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies. In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95–1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93–1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89–1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07–1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05–1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05–1.20) in group C. Conclusions We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere0191172
JournalPLoS One
Volume13
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 1 2018

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Carotid Intima-Media Thickness
Chemical vapor deposition
Hazards
endpoints
risk factors
myocardial infarction
stroke
Proportional Hazards Models
blood vessels
Blood Vessels
confidence interval
Stroke
Myocardial Infarction

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

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Predictive value for cardiovascular events of common carotid intima media thickness and its rate of change in individuals at high cardiovascular risk – Results from the PROG-IMT collaboration. / on behalf of the PROG-IMT study group.

In: PLoS One, Vol. 13, No. 4, e0191172, 01.04.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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abstract = "Aims Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Methods and results From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies. In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95{\%} confidence interval: 0.95–1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93–1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89–1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07–1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05–1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05–1.20) in group C. Conclusions We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals.",
author = "{on behalf of the PROG-IMT study group} and Lorenz, {Matthias W.} and Lu Gao and Kathrin Ziegelbauer and Norata, {Giuseppe Danilo} and Empana, {Jean Philippe} and Irene Schmidtmann and Lin, {Hung Ju} and Stela McLachlan and Lena Bokemark and Kimmo Ronkainen and Mauro Amato and Ulf Schminke and Srinivasan, {Sathanur R.} and Lars Lind and Shuhei Okazaki and Stehouwer, {Coen D.A.} and Peter Willeit and Polak, {Joseph F.} and Helmuth Steinmetz and Dirk Sander and Holger Poppert and Moise Desvarieux and {Arfan Ikram}, M. and Johnsen, {Stein Harald} and Daniel Staub and Sirtori, {Cesare R.} and Bernhard Iglseder and Oscar Beloqui and Gunnar Engstr{\"o}m and Alfonso Friera and Francesco Rozza and Wuxiang Xie and Grace Parraga and Liliana Grigore and Matthieu Plichart and Stefan Blankenberg and Su, {Ta Chen} and Caroline Schmidt and Tuomainen, {Tomi Pekka} and Fabrizio Veglia and Henry V{\"o}lzke and Giel Nijpels and Johann Willeit and Sacco, {Ralph L.} and Franco, {Oscar H.} and Heiko Uthoff and Bo Hedblad and Alberico Catapano and Elena Tremoli and Damiano Baldassarre",
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T1 - Predictive value for cardiovascular events of common carotid intima media thickness and its rate of change in individuals at high cardiovascular risk – Results from the PROG-IMT collaboration

AU - on behalf of the PROG-IMT study group

AU - Lorenz, Matthias W.

AU - Gao, Lu

AU - Ziegelbauer, Kathrin

AU - Norata, Giuseppe Danilo

AU - Empana, Jean Philippe

AU - Schmidtmann, Irene

AU - Lin, Hung Ju

AU - McLachlan, Stela

AU - Bokemark, Lena

AU - Ronkainen, Kimmo

AU - Amato, Mauro

AU - Schminke, Ulf

AU - Srinivasan, Sathanur R.

AU - Lind, Lars

AU - Okazaki, Shuhei

AU - Stehouwer, Coen D.A.

AU - Willeit, Peter

AU - Polak, Joseph F.

AU - Steinmetz, Helmuth

AU - Sander, Dirk

AU - Poppert, Holger

AU - Desvarieux, Moise

AU - Arfan Ikram, M.

AU - Johnsen, Stein Harald

AU - Staub, Daniel

AU - Sirtori, Cesare R.

AU - Iglseder, Bernhard

AU - Beloqui, Oscar

AU - Engström, Gunnar

AU - Friera, Alfonso

AU - Rozza, Francesco

AU - Xie, Wuxiang

AU - Parraga, Grace

AU - Grigore, Liliana

AU - Plichart, Matthieu

AU - Blankenberg, Stefan

AU - Su, Ta Chen

AU - Schmidt, Caroline

AU - Tuomainen, Tomi Pekka

AU - Veglia, Fabrizio

AU - Völzke, Henry

AU - Nijpels, Giel

AU - Willeit, Johann

AU - Sacco, Ralph L.

AU - Franco, Oscar H.

AU - Uthoff, Heiko

AU - Hedblad, Bo

AU - Catapano, Alberico

AU - Tremoli, Elena

AU - Baldassarre, Damiano

PY - 2018/4/1

Y1 - 2018/4/1

N2 - Aims Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Methods and results From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies. In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95–1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93–1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89–1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07–1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05–1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05–1.20) in group C. Conclusions We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals.

AB - Aims Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) predicts cardiovascular (CVD) events, but the predictive value of CIMT change is debated. We assessed the relation between CIMT change and events in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Methods and results From 31 cohorts with two CIMT scans (total n = 89070) on average 3.6 years apart and clinical follow-up, subcohorts were drawn: (A) individuals with at least 3 cardiovascular risk factors without previous CVD events, (B) individuals with carotid plaques without previous CVD events, and (C) individuals with previous CVD events. Cox regression models were fit to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke or vascular death) per standard deviation (SD) of CIMT change, adjusted for CVD risk factors. These HRs were pooled across studies. In groups A, B and C we observed 3483, 2845 and 1165 endpoint events, respectively. Average common CIMT was 0.79mm (SD 0.16mm), and annual common CIMT change was 0.01mm (SD 0.07mm), both in group A. The pooled HR per SD of annual common CIMT change (0.02 to 0.43mm) was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.95–1.02) in group A, 0.98 (0.93–1.04) in group B, and 0.95 (0.89–1.04) in group C. The HR per SD of common CIMT (average of the first and the second CIMT scan, 0.09 to 0.75mm) was 1.15 (1.07–1.23) in group A, 1.13 (1.05–1.22) in group B, and 1.12 (1.05–1.20) in group C. Conclusions We confirm that common CIMT is associated with future CVD events in individuals at high risk. CIMT change does not relate to future event risk in high-risk individuals.

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