Abstract
Purpose: Evidence that metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) is a stable benign condition is unclear. The aim of this study was to estimate the transition of MHO subjects to unhealthy obesity (occurrence of cardio-metabolic events and/or risk factors) and its predictors. Methods: We conducted an explorative follow-up study in a subset of MHO patients > 40 years without any cardio-metabolic risk factors and with normal LDL cholesterol (LDLc) levels, identified among 1530 obese patients. Due to the low sample size, a bootstrap approach was applied to identify the variables to be included in the final multivariate discrete-time logit model. Results: The prevalence of MHO was 3.7%. During the follow-up (mean 6.1 years, SD 2.0), none of the MHO reported cardiovascular events, diabetes or prediabetes; 26 subjects developed risk factors (53% high LDLc and 50% hypertension). At the 6 and 12-year of follow-up, the cumulative incidence of transition to unhealthy obesity was 44% (95% CI 31–59%) and 62% (95% CI 45–79%), the incidence of high LDLc was 23% (95% CI 13–37%) and 40% (95% CI 25–59%) and that of hypertension was 20% (95% CI 11–33%) and 30% (95% CI 17–48%). LDLc and duration of follow-up were independent predictors of the transition from MHO to unhealthy obesity [OR 1.038 (1.005–1.072) and 1.360 (1.115–1.659)]. Conclusions: Results suggest that (a) MHO individuals do not move over time forward diabetes/prediabetes but develop risk factors, such as hypertension and higher LDL c that worsen the cardiovascular prognosis; (b) LDLc and the flow of time independently predict the transition to unhealthy status. Level of evidence: Level III, cohort study.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 739-744 |
| Number of pages | 6 |
| Journal | Eating and Weight Disorders |
| Volume | 23 |
| Issue number | 6 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Dec 1 2018 |
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Keywords
- Follow-up study
- Hypertension
- LDL cholesterol
- Metabolically healthy obesity
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Clinical Psychology
- Psychiatry and Mental health
Cite this
Predictors of the transition from metabolically healthy obesity to unhealthy obesity. / Gilardini, Luisa; Zambon, Antonella; Soranna, Davide; Croci, Marina; Invitti, Cecilia.
In: Eating and Weight Disorders, Vol. 23, No. 6, 01.12.2018, p. 739-744.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Predictors of the transition from metabolically healthy obesity to unhealthy obesity
AU - Gilardini, Luisa
AU - Zambon, Antonella
AU - Soranna, Davide
AU - Croci, Marina
AU - Invitti, Cecilia
PY - 2018/12/1
Y1 - 2018/12/1
N2 - Purpose: Evidence that metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) is a stable benign condition is unclear. The aim of this study was to estimate the transition of MHO subjects to unhealthy obesity (occurrence of cardio-metabolic events and/or risk factors) and its predictors. Methods: We conducted an explorative follow-up study in a subset of MHO patients > 40 years without any cardio-metabolic risk factors and with normal LDL cholesterol (LDLc) levels, identified among 1530 obese patients. Due to the low sample size, a bootstrap approach was applied to identify the variables to be included in the final multivariate discrete-time logit model. Results: The prevalence of MHO was 3.7%. During the follow-up (mean 6.1 years, SD 2.0), none of the MHO reported cardiovascular events, diabetes or prediabetes; 26 subjects developed risk factors (53% high LDLc and 50% hypertension). At the 6 and 12-year of follow-up, the cumulative incidence of transition to unhealthy obesity was 44% (95% CI 31–59%) and 62% (95% CI 45–79%), the incidence of high LDLc was 23% (95% CI 13–37%) and 40% (95% CI 25–59%) and that of hypertension was 20% (95% CI 11–33%) and 30% (95% CI 17–48%). LDLc and duration of follow-up were independent predictors of the transition from MHO to unhealthy obesity [OR 1.038 (1.005–1.072) and 1.360 (1.115–1.659)]. Conclusions: Results suggest that (a) MHO individuals do not move over time forward diabetes/prediabetes but develop risk factors, such as hypertension and higher LDL c that worsen the cardiovascular prognosis; (b) LDLc and the flow of time independently predict the transition to unhealthy status. Level of evidence: Level III, cohort study.
AB - Purpose: Evidence that metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) is a stable benign condition is unclear. The aim of this study was to estimate the transition of MHO subjects to unhealthy obesity (occurrence of cardio-metabolic events and/or risk factors) and its predictors. Methods: We conducted an explorative follow-up study in a subset of MHO patients > 40 years without any cardio-metabolic risk factors and with normal LDL cholesterol (LDLc) levels, identified among 1530 obese patients. Due to the low sample size, a bootstrap approach was applied to identify the variables to be included in the final multivariate discrete-time logit model. Results: The prevalence of MHO was 3.7%. During the follow-up (mean 6.1 years, SD 2.0), none of the MHO reported cardiovascular events, diabetes or prediabetes; 26 subjects developed risk factors (53% high LDLc and 50% hypertension). At the 6 and 12-year of follow-up, the cumulative incidence of transition to unhealthy obesity was 44% (95% CI 31–59%) and 62% (95% CI 45–79%), the incidence of high LDLc was 23% (95% CI 13–37%) and 40% (95% CI 25–59%) and that of hypertension was 20% (95% CI 11–33%) and 30% (95% CI 17–48%). LDLc and duration of follow-up were independent predictors of the transition from MHO to unhealthy obesity [OR 1.038 (1.005–1.072) and 1.360 (1.115–1.659)]. Conclusions: Results suggest that (a) MHO individuals do not move over time forward diabetes/prediabetes but develop risk factors, such as hypertension and higher LDL c that worsen the cardiovascular prognosis; (b) LDLc and the flow of time independently predict the transition to unhealthy status. Level of evidence: Level III, cohort study.
KW - Follow-up study
KW - Hypertension
KW - LDL cholesterol
KW - Metabolically healthy obesity
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85055752983&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85055752983&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s40519-018-0600-4
DO - 10.1007/s40519-018-0600-4
M3 - Article
C2 - 30374903
AN - SCOPUS:85055752983
VL - 23
SP - 739
EP - 744
JO - Eating and Weight Disorders
JF - Eating and Weight Disorders
SN - 1124-4909
IS - 6
ER -