Prognostic Impact of Presurgical CA19-9 Level in Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma: A Pooled Analysis

Gian Carlo Mattiucci, Alessio G. Morganti, Francesco Cellini, Milly Buwenge, Riccardo Casadei, Andrea Farioli, Sergio Alfieri, Alessandra Arcelli, Federica Bertini, Felipe A. Calvo, Silvia Cammelli, Lorenzo Fuccio, Lucia Giaccherini, Alessandra Guido, Joseph M. Herman, Gabriella Macchia, Bert W. Maidment, Robert C. Miller, Francesco Minni, William F. RegineMichele Reni, Stefano Partelli, Massimo Falconi, Vincenzo Valentini

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


BACKGROUND: Presurgical carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) level predicts overall survival (OS) in resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PaC). The aim of this pooled analysis was to evaluate if presurgical CA19-9 level can also predict local control (LC) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS). METHODS: Seven hundred patients with PaC from eight institutions who underwent surgical resection ± adjuvant treatment between 2000 and 2014 were analyzed. Patients were divided based on four presurgical CA19-9 level cutoffs (5, 37, 100, 353 U/ml). Weibull regression model to identify independent predictors of OS on 404 patients with complete information was fitted. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 17 months (range: 2-225 months). Univariate analysis showed a better prognosis in pT1-2, pN0, diameter <30 mm, or grade 1 tumors and in patients undergoing R0 resection, distal pancreatectomy, or adjuvant chemotherapy and with lower CA19-9 levels. Five-year OS, LC, and DMFS were as follows: CA19-9 <5.0: 5.7%, 47.2%, 17.0%; CA19-9 5.1-37.0: 37.9%, 63.3%, 46.0%; CA19-9 37.1-100.0: 27.1%, 59.4%, 39.0%; CA19-9 100.1-353.0: 17.4%, 43.4%, 26.7%; CA19-9 >353.1: 10.9%, 50.2%, and 23.4%, respectively. At multivariate analysis, CA19-9 >100 and <353 level (P=.002), CA19-9 ≥353.1 (P<.001) level, G3 tumor (P=.002), and tumor diameter >30 mm (P<.001) correlated with worse OS. Patients treated with postoperative chemoradiation doses >50.0 Gy showed improved OS (P<.001). CONCLUSION: Presurgical CA19-9 predicts both OS and pattern of failure. Therefore, CA19-9 should be included in predictive models in order to customize treatments based on prognostic factors. Moreover, future studies should stratify patients according to presurgical CA19-9 level.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-7
Number of pages7
JournalTranslational Oncology
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2019

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology
  • Cancer Research


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