Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer

C. K. Lee, R. J. Simes, C. Brown, S. Lord, U. Wagner, M. Plante, I. Vergote, C. Pisano, G. Parma, A. Burges, H. Bourgeois, T. Högberg, J. Bentley, L. Angleitner-Boubenizek, A. Ferrero, B. Richter, H. Hirte, V. Gebski, J. Pfisterer, E. Pujade-LauraineM. Friedlander

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Background: Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy. Methods: The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n=340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics. Results: The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and white blood count. When the nomogram was applied without CA-125 (CA-125 was not available in validation cohort), the C-indices were 0.624 (training) and 0.594 (validation). When classification was based only on the platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, the indices were 0.571 (training) and 0.560 (validation). The calibration plot in the validation cohort based on four predictors (without CA-125) suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted 12-month PFS probabilities. Conclusion: This nomogram, using five pre-treatment characteristics, improves prediction of PFS in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer having platinum-based chemotherapy. It will be useful for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials and also for counselling patients.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1144-1150
Number of pages7
JournalBritish Journal of Cancer
Volume105
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 11 2011

Keywords

  • nomogram
  • platinum sensitivity
  • prognosis
  • progression-free survival
  • recurrent ovarian cancer

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cancer Research
  • Oncology

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    Lee, C. K., Simes, R. J., Brown, C., Lord, S., Wagner, U., Plante, M., Vergote, I., Pisano, C., Parma, G., Burges, A., Bourgeois, H., Högberg, T., Bentley, J., Angleitner-Boubenizek, L., Ferrero, A., Richter, B., Hirte, H., Gebski, V., Pfisterer, J., ... Friedlander, M. (2011). Prognostic nomogram to predict progression-free survival in patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer. British Journal of Cancer, 105(8), 1144-1150. https://doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2011.364