PROgnosticating COeliac patieNts SUrvivaL: The PROCONSUL score

Federico Biagi, Annalisa Schiepatti, Georgia Malamut, Alessandra Marchese, Christophe Cellier, Sjoerd F. Bakker, Chris J J Mulder, Umberto Volta, Fabiana Zingone, Carolina Ciacci, Anna D'Odorico, Alida Andrealli, Marco Astegiano, Catherine Klersy, Gino R. Corazza

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Introduction: It has been shown that mortality rates of coeliac patients correlate with age at diagnosis of coeliac disease, diagnostic delay for coeliac disease, pattern of clinical presentation and HLA typing. Our aim was to create a tool that identifies coeliac patients at higher risk of developing complications. Methods: To identify predictors of complications in patients with coeliac disease, we organised an observational multicenter case-control study based on a retrospective collection of clinical data. Clinical data from 116 cases (patients with complicated coeliac disease) and 181 controls (coeliac patients without any complications) were collected from seven European centres. For each case, one or two controls, matched to cases according to the year of assessment, gender and age, were selected. Diagnostic delay, pattern of clinical presentation, HLA typing and age at diagnosis were used as predictors. Results: Differences between cases and controls were detected for diagnostic delay and classical presentation. Conditional logistic models based on these statistically different predictors allowed the development of a score system. Tertiles analysis showed a relationship between score and risk of developing complications. Discussion: A score that shows the risk of a newly diagnosed coeliac patient developing complications was devised for the first time. This will make it possible to set up the follow-up of coeliac patients with great benefits not only for their health but also for management of economic resources. Conclusions: We think that our results are very encouraging and represent the first attempt to build a prognostic score for coeliac patients.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere84163
JournalPLoS One
Volume9
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2 2014

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Medicine(all)

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    Biagi, F., Schiepatti, A., Malamut, G., Marchese, A., Cellier, C., Bakker, S. F., Mulder, C. J. J., Volta, U., Zingone, F., Ciacci, C., D'Odorico, A., Andrealli, A., Astegiano, M., Klersy, C., & Corazza, G. R. (2014). PROgnosticating COeliac patieNts SUrvivaL: The PROCONSUL score. PLoS One, 9(1), [e84163]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0084163