Risk of pancreatic malignancy and mortality in branch-duct IPMNs undergoing surveillance: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Stefano Crippa, Gabriele Capurso, Calogero Cammà, Gianfranco Delle Fave, Carlos Fernández-del Castillo, Massimo Falconi

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review


Background: Safety of non-operative management for low-risk branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) is debated. Aim: To perform a systematic review/meta-analysis to determine their risk of developing pancreatic malignancy and of pancreatic malignancy-related deaths. Methods: A MEDLINE search was performed and methodology was based on PRISMA statement. Incidence rates of overall pancreatic malignancy, malignant BD-IPMN, IPMN-distinct PDAC, and of pancreatic malignancy-related death rates were calculated by dividing the total number of events by the total number of person-years (pyrs) of follow-up. Heterogeneity was determined by I2 statistic. Results: 20 studies including 2177 patients were included. Mean follow-up ranged from 29.3 to 76.7 months. Overall, 82 patients (3.7%) developed a pancreatic malignancy with a pooled estimate rate of 0.007/pyrs (I2 = 32.8%). The pooled estimate rate of malignant IPMN was 0.004/pyrs (I2 = 40.8%), and the pooled estimate rate of distinct PDAC 0.002/pyrs (I2 = 0%). The rate of death due to pancreatic malignancy during follow-up was 0.9%, with an overall pooled estimate rate of death of 0.002/pyrs (I2 = 0%). Conclusion: Non-operative management of low-risk BD-IPMN is safe, with a very low risk of malignant transformation of IPMN and of distinct PDAC. The rate of pancreatic malignancy-related mortality is low, particularly when compared with the mortality of pancreatic surgery.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)473 - 479
Number of pages7
JournalDigestive and Liver Disease
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - May 1 2016


  • Follow-up
  • Non-operative management
  • Pancreatectomy
  • Pancreatic cancer

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Hepatology
  • Gastroenterology


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