Statistical challenges in the quantification of gunshot residue evidence

Romain Gauriot, Lawrence Gunaratnam, Rossana Moroni, Tapani Reinikainen, Jukka Corander

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

The discharging of a gun results in the formation of extremely small particles known as gunshot residues (GSR). These may be deposited on the skin and clothing of the shooter, on other persons present, and on nearby items or surfaces. Several factors and their complex interactions affect the number of detectable GSR particles, which can deeply influence the conclusions drawn from likelihood ratios or posterior probabilities for prosecution hypotheses of interest. We present Bayesian network models for casework examples and demonstrate that probabilistic quantification of GSR evidence can be very sensitive to the assumptions concerning the model structure, prior probabilities, and the likelihood components. This finding has considerable implications for the use of statistical quantification of GSR evidence in the legal process.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1149-1155
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Forensic Sciences
Volume58
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2013

Keywords

  • Bayesian networks
  • Contamination
  • Forensic science
  • Gunshot residue
  • Model uncertainty
  • Statistical quantification of evidence

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Pathology and Forensic Medicine
  • Genetics

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