Strategies for containing an influenza pandemic: The case of Italy

Stefano Merler, Giuseppe Jurman, Cesare Furlanello, Caterina Rizzo, Antonino Bella, Marco Massari, Marta Luisa Ciofi Degli Atti

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

In this paper we introduce an individual based model for simulating the spread of an emerging influenza pandemic in Italy and testing the effectiveness of some containing strategies including vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis and quarantine measures to increase social distances. Our results show that while the probability of interrupting a large outbreak is negligible, a combination of the control measures can be effective in reducing the incidence of infection. In particular, in the worst case, an incidence reduction from about 50% to about 10% can be hopefully achieved.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2006 1st Bio-Inspired Models of Network, Information and Computing Systems, BIONETICS
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2006
Event2006 1st Bio-Inspired Models of Network, Information and Computing Systems, BIONETICS - Madonna di Campiglio, Italy
Duration: Dec 11 2006Dec 13 2006

Other

Other2006 1st Bio-Inspired Models of Network, Information and Computing Systems, BIONETICS
CountryItaly
CityMadonna di Campiglio
Period12/11/0612/13/06

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Biomedical Engineering
  • Information Systems

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