The predictive value of human papillomavirus testing for the outcome of patients conservatively treated for stage IA squamous cell cervical carcinoma

Silvano Costa, Mario Sideri, Giovanni Negri, Simona Venturoli, Donatella Santini, Chiara Casadio, Maria T. Sandri, Lauro Bucchi

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


Background: Although it is hypothesised that human papillomavirus (HPV) testing may have a role in surveillance of patients conservatively treated for stage IA squamous cell cervical carcinoma, research on this topic has been minimal. Objectives: To determine: (1) the changes in HPV test result from treatment onward; (2) the time to viral clearance; and (3) the negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV) of HPV test result for the detection of CIN2 or worse (CIN2+) during follow-up. Study design: In a multicentre retrospective follow-up study of a consecutive series (1997-2009) of 91 patients, longitudinal outcome measures were estimated as cumulative probabilities using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: For patients testing HPV-positive at the first follow-up visit (. n=. 44), the probability of change to negative rose from 0 to 0.78 between 7 and 21 months after treatment. For HPV-negative patients (. n=. 47), the probability of change to positive rose to 0.13 between 9 and 26 months. After a median follow-up of 50 months (range, 2-80), the NPV for CIN2+ was 1.00. The PPV was 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.43-0.77) after 26 months. The median time to detection was 5 months. Conclusions: If adequately confirmed, these findings would indicate that HPV testing is capable to identify the patients who have had their lesions fully removed, and would make it possible to focus follow-up efforts on a subset of patients at high risk of residual or progressive disease.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)53-57
Number of pages5
JournalJournal of Clinical Virology
Publication statusPublished - Sep 1 2015



  • Cervical cancer
  • Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia
  • Follow-up
  • HPV testing
  • Negative predictive value

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Virology
  • Infectious Diseases

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