Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if the pandemic mitigation effects of lockdown in Italy have been influenced by the level of penetration of COVID-19 in Italian Regions at the onset of containment (March 9, 2020).
METHODS: We collected data published day by daily from the first COVID-19 case until May 3, 2020, the end of lockdown, by Italy's Protezione Civile Department. Linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate possible correlations between the number of confirmed cases/100.000 residents and the number of new cases/100.000/day before lockdown, with the number of deaths/100.000 residents at sixty days, in each Italian region.
RESULTS: We found a significant positive correlation between the number of confirmed cases before lockdown and mortality up to sixty days (p < 0.001; R2 = 0.57) as well as between the incidence rate of new cases per day and mortality up to sixty days (p < 0.001; R2 = 0.73). Regression coefficients indicated about two deaths up to sixty days for every new patient with confirmed COVID-19 before lockdown, and 37 deaths for every new infected subject per day until the lockdown decree of March 9, 2020.
CONCLUSIONS: Every new infected subject before lockdown counted on the death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 193-195 |
Number of pages | 3 |
Journal | International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases |
Volume | 100 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Nov 2020 |
Keywords
- COVID-19/epidemiology
- Female
- Humans
- Italy/epidemiology
- Male
- Pandemics
- Quarantine
- SARS-CoV-2
- Time Factors