Timing of national lockdown and mortality in COVID-19: The Italian experience

Angelo Silverio; Marco Di Maio; Michele Ciccarelli; Albino Carrizzo; Carmine Vecchione; Gennaro Galasso

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.006

Timing of national lockdown and mortality in COVID-19: The Italian experience

Angelo Silverio, Marco Di Maio, Michele Ciccarelli, Albino Carrizzo, Carmine Vecchione, Gennaro Galasso

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Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if the pandemic mitigation effects of lockdown in Italy have been influenced by the level of penetration of COVID-19 in Italian Regions at the onset of containment (March 9, 2020).

METHODS: We collected data published day by daily from the first COVID-19 case until May 3, 2020, the end of lockdown, by Italy's Protezione Civile Department. Linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate possible correlations between the number of confirmed cases/100.000 residents and the number of new cases/100.000/day before lockdown, with the number of deaths/100.000 residents at sixty days, in each Italian region.

RESULTS: We found a significant positive correlation between the number of confirmed cases before lockdown and mortality up to sixty days (p < 0.001; R2 = 0.57) as well as between the incidence rate of new cases per day and mortality up to sixty days (p < 0.001; R2 = 0.73). Regression coefficients indicated about two deaths up to sixty days for every new patient with confirmed COVID-19 before lockdown, and 37 deaths for every new infected subject per day until the lockdown decree of March 9, 2020.

CONCLUSIONS: Every new infected subject before lockdown counted on the death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	193-195
Number of pages	3
Journal	International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases
Volume	100
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.006
Publication status	Published - Nov 2020

Keywords

COVID-19/epidemiology
Female
Humans
Italy/epidemiology
Male
Pandemics
Quarantine
SARS-CoV-2
Time Factors

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10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.006

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Timing of national lockdown and mortality in COVID-19 : The Italian experience. / Silverio, Angelo; Di Maio, Marco; Ciccarelli, Michele; Carrizzo, Albino ; Vecchione, Carmine; Galasso, Gennaro.

In: International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, Vol. 100, 11.2020, p. 193-195.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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title = "Timing of national lockdown and mortality in COVID-19: The Italian experience",

abstract = "OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if the pandemic mitigation effects of lockdown in Italy have been influenced by the level of penetration of COVID-19 in Italian Regions at the onset of containment (March 9, 2020).METHODS: We collected data published day by daily from the first COVID-19 case until May 3, 2020, the end of lockdown, by Italy's Protezione Civile Department. Linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate possible correlations between the number of confirmed cases/100.000 residents and the number of new cases/100.000/day before lockdown, with the number of deaths/100.000 residents at sixty days, in each Italian region.RESULTS: We found a significant positive correlation between the number of confirmed cases before lockdown and mortality up to sixty days (p < 0.001; R2 = 0.57) as well as between the incidence rate of new cases per day and mortality up to sixty days (p < 0.001; R2 = 0.73). Regression coefficients indicated about two deaths up to sixty days for every new patient with confirmed COVID-19 before lockdown, and 37 deaths for every new infected subject per day until the lockdown decree of March 9, 2020.CONCLUSIONS: Every new infected subject before lockdown counted on the death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.",

keywords = "COVID-19/epidemiology, Female, Humans, Italy/epidemiology, Male, Pandemics, Quarantine, SARS-CoV-2, Time Factors",

author = "Angelo Silverio and {Di Maio}, Marco and Michele Ciccarelli and Albino Carrizzo and Carmine Vecchione and Gennaro Galasso",

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AU - Silverio, Angelo

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AU - Ciccarelli, Michele

AU - Carrizzo, Albino

AU - Vecchione, Carmine

AU - Galasso, Gennaro

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N2 - OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if the pandemic mitigation effects of lockdown in Italy have been influenced by the level of penetration of COVID-19 in Italian Regions at the onset of containment (March 9, 2020).METHODS: We collected data published day by daily from the first COVID-19 case until May 3, 2020, the end of lockdown, by Italy's Protezione Civile Department. Linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate possible correlations between the number of confirmed cases/100.000 residents and the number of new cases/100.000/day before lockdown, with the number of deaths/100.000 residents at sixty days, in each Italian region.RESULTS: We found a significant positive correlation between the number of confirmed cases before lockdown and mortality up to sixty days (p < 0.001; R2 = 0.57) as well as between the incidence rate of new cases per day and mortality up to sixty days (p < 0.001; R2 = 0.73). Regression coefficients indicated about two deaths up to sixty days for every new patient with confirmed COVID-19 before lockdown, and 37 deaths for every new infected subject per day until the lockdown decree of March 9, 2020.CONCLUSIONS: Every new infected subject before lockdown counted on the death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.

AB - OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if the pandemic mitigation effects of lockdown in Italy have been influenced by the level of penetration of COVID-19 in Italian Regions at the onset of containment (March 9, 2020).METHODS: We collected data published day by daily from the first COVID-19 case until May 3, 2020, the end of lockdown, by Italy's Protezione Civile Department. Linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate possible correlations between the number of confirmed cases/100.000 residents and the number of new cases/100.000/day before lockdown, with the number of deaths/100.000 residents at sixty days, in each Italian region.RESULTS: We found a significant positive correlation between the number of confirmed cases before lockdown and mortality up to sixty days (p < 0.001; R2 = 0.57) as well as between the incidence rate of new cases per day and mortality up to sixty days (p < 0.001; R2 = 0.73). Regression coefficients indicated about two deaths up to sixty days for every new patient with confirmed COVID-19 before lockdown, and 37 deaths for every new infected subject per day until the lockdown decree of March 9, 2020.CONCLUSIONS: Every new infected subject before lockdown counted on the death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.

KW - COVID-19/epidemiology

KW - Female

KW - Humans

KW - Italy/epidemiology

KW - Male

KW - Pandemics

KW - Quarantine

KW - SARS-CoV-2

KW - Time Factors

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